Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The domestic spot discount of zinc has been significantly repaired, and the overseas inventory has increased, but the spot premium remains at a high level. The social inventory is expected to continue to decline. After the absolute price of zinc fell, the downstream's acceptance of the price increased significantly. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic mining TC in November further decreased significantly, and the overseas mining TC also decreased synchronously. The smelters actively purchased domestic and foreign ores, and the import TC guidance price for the first quarter of next year decreased month - on - month. The short - term TC still shows a downward trend. The smelting end is under pressure, and the comprehensive smelting profit is severely compressed. The high - cost areas are facing comprehensive losses, and the smelting enthusiasm will be suppressed, so the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease more than expected. The overseas warrant inventory is still at a low level, and there is still a warrant risk. Most of the micro - data has changed from bearish to bullish. In terms of the macro - aspect, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the US in December and January has weakened, and the zinc price is expected to be resistant to the decline caused by the emotional recession [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $129.76 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 22,420 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 22,360 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 22,380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On November 19, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,360 yuan/ton and closed at 22,420 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 91,247 lots, and the position was 67,487 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,475 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 22,330 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 156,600 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 45,075 tons, an increase of 1,550 tons from the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [6].

Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The zinc price is supported by the temporary tightening of the mining end and exports. With the end of the US government shutdown and the recovery of market risk appetite, the zinc price will fluctuate strongly in the upper - middle range of the Bollinger Bands in the short term [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review - **Futures Market**: For SHFE zinc contracts 2511, 2512, and 2601, the closing prices were 22,730 yuan/ton, 22,740 yuan/ton, and 22,785 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 130 yuan (0.58%), 100 yuan (0.44%), and 105 yuan (0.46%). The main contract 2512 had a trading volume increase and a position decrease of 2,967 lots to 102,938 lots [7] - **Inventory**: Since November, there have been successive deliveries in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kaohsiung. On the 12th, LME zinc inventory increased by 575 tons to 35,875 tons, a cumulative increase of 2,050 tons from the beginning of the month. The Cash - 3M spread was 128.30B, indicating a relief of supply tightness [7] - **Domestic Mines**: Northern domestic mines have seasonal production cuts, and some mines have actively controlled production after completing their annual plans. The domestic zinc concentrate TC has weakened month - on - month [7] - **Downstream**: The peak season for downstream industries is ending, and environmental protection warnings are frequent. The operating rates of galvanizing and die - casting zinc have decreased month - on - month, and downstream enterprises are replenishing inventory based on rigid demand [7] - **Spot Premium**: The spot premium remained stable month - on - month. The Shanghai market had a premium of 80 yuan/ton over the 12 - contract, the Tianjin market had a premium of 130 yuan/ton over the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market's premium decreased slightly, with a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market [7] 2. Industry News - **Price Range**: On November 13, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc were 22,705 - 22,820 yuan/ton, and for 1 zinc, it was 22,635 - 22,750 yuan/ton. Different brands had different premiums or discounts to the 2512 contract in different markets [8] - **Regional Markets**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 22,665 - 22,780 yuan/ton, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,550 - 22,750 yuan/ton, and in the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,535 - 22,680 yuan/ton, with different premiums or discounts to relevant contracts and the Shanghai market [8] 3. Data Overview - **Data Sources**: The data in the report are from Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][14][16] - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE monthly spreads [12][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly. With strong demand from smelters for ore procurement, TC is expected to decline further. - As TC drops, smelting comprehensive profit has been severely compressed, suppressing smelting enthusiasm and potentially reducing supply - side pressure more than expected. - Overseas warehouse receipt inventory remains low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with a possible downward shift in the inventory center. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains favorable. [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $152.26/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,570 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices are 22,530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 85 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On November 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,720 yuan/ton, closed at 22,670 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,875 lots, and the position was 110,752 lots. The highest price was 22,735 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,530 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 159,600 tons, up 900 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 34,900 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly in November. With strong procurement demand from smelters, TC is expected to decline further. - The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure. - Overseas warehouse receipt inventory is low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with a possible downward shift in the inventory center. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains favorable. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]