新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-07 库存方面：截至2025-08-06，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为10.73万吨，较上期变化0.41万吨。截止2025-08-06，LME 锌库存为89225吨，较上一交易日变化-3050吨。 市场分析 现货市场方面，下游原料储备充足采购意愿不强，市场成交冷清，整体升贴水以稳中偏弱走势为主。供应端，7月 中国锌锭产量60.28万吨，同比增加23%，8月预计产量62万吨，同比增速将达到25%，供给压力持续增加。成本端， 海外矿端未有干扰，国产矿TC上涨100元/吨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续。消费端，下游开工率水平表现出 相对韧性，整体消费并不差，但难敌供应端的高增长，社会库存呈现累库趋势，预计下半年累库趋势不变。且当 前正值消费淡季，叠加供给压力，锌价压力较大。 策略 单边：谨慎偏空。 套利：中性。 现货升贴水难有好转 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-13.16美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日30元/吨至22330元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-20元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日20元/吨至22290元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-60元/吨；天 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating with a bearish bias. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - After the overseas short squeeze risk is released, zinc prices are expected to return to fundamental logic. Currently in the off - season for consumption and facing supply pressure, zinc prices are under significant pressure [3] 3. Summary by Content Important Data - As of July 25, 2025, the LME zinc price increased by 3.16% to $2,840.5 per ton from the previous week, and the SHFE zinc main contract increased by 2.65% to 22,885 yuan per ton. The LME zinc spot premium (0 - 3) changed from $4.75 per ton last week to - $1.96 per ton [1] - As of the week ending July 25, the weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates in SMM remained flat at 3,800 yuan per metal ton compared to the previous week. The weekly processing fee index for imported zinc concentrates rose by $2 - 3 per ton to around $76 per ton. The current high - price for imported dollars is $85 per dry ton, generally ranging from $60 - 70 per dry ton, and the latest tender results for domestic mines have not been finalized [1] - In terms of consumption, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises increased by 0.3% to 59.42% from the previous week, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 0.92% to 51.03%, and the operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 0.33% to 55.99% [1] - According to SMM statistics, as of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions of SMM was 98,300 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from the previous week. The warrant inventory increased by 1,928 tons to 13,289 tons from the previous week, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,325 tons to 115,775 tons [1] - As of July 24, 2025, the production profit of smelting enterprises in the industry (excluding by - product income) was about - 140 yuan per ton, and the profit after adding by - product income was about 1,200 yuan per ton [2] Market Analysis - Last week, due to the combined factors of market sentiment explosion and overseas short squeezes, the zinc futures price rose significantly, but the demand in the spot market did not improve, and the spot premium declined rapidly [3] - On the cost side, the new monthly tender price for domestic mines has not been finalized, and the TC for imported mines continues to rise, with the highest offer reaching $85 per ton. The smelting profit is increasing, and the expectation of increased supply remains unchanged. Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves and are not very motivated to purchase from the mine end. It is expected that the TC will continue to rise [3] - On the consumption side, the operating rate of downstream enterprises shows relative resilience, and overall consumption is not bad, but it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventory is showing a cumulative trend, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the second half of the year [3]

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The downstream has limited restocking behavior despite the decline in absolute prices. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the spot premium is stable. The import ore TC is rising, and the smelting profit is still high, with an expected supply surplus in the second half of the year. Although downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, leading to a trend of inventory accumulation, which may suppress zinc prices [3] Key Data Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$5.61 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 30 yuan to 22,150 yuan per ton, with a stable premium of 30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell by 30 yuan to 22,080 yuan per ton, with a stable premium of -40 yuan per ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price declined by 30 yuan to 22,110 yuan per ton, with a stable premium of -10 yuan per ton [1] Futures Market - On July 15, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,110 yuan per ton and closed at 22,085 yuan per ton, down 120 yuan per ton. Trading volume was 119,038 lots, a decrease of 17,102 lots from the previous day, and the position was 84,304 lots, a reduction of 9,873 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,040 - 22,195 yuan per ton [1] Inventory - As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 93,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous week. As of July 15, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 118,600 tons, up 5,200 tons from the previous day [2] Market Analysis - In the spot market, the decline in absolute prices fails to stimulate restocking. The supply is sufficient, and the spot premium is stable. The import ore TC is rising, and smelting profits are high, with an expected supply surplus in the second half of the year. Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory and low procurement enthusiasm. Although downstream consumption shows resilience, it cannot offset the high - growth supply, leading to inventory accumulation, which may suppress zinc prices [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The continuous weakening of the US dollar has led to generally strong commodity prices. A strike at a 344,000 - ton zinc smelter in Peru has affected production and boosted zinc prices. However, the spot market has become increasingly冷清, with a significant decline in spot premiums. The operating rate of zinc alloy has dropped significantly, and there may be a negative feedback from hidden inventory. Although the upward space is limited, the zinc price still maintains a strong trend. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and if social inventory continues to increase, it will exert significant downward pressure [3] Summary by Category Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$17.39/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,260 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 65 yuan/ton to 185 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 90 yuan/ton to 22,220 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 35 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 50 yuan/ton to 22,190 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 75 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,090 yuan/ton and closed at 22,240 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,109 lots, an increase of 9,578 lots, and the open interest was 135,638 lots, an increase of 5,773 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,030 - 22,400 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 79,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 119,850 tons, a decrease of 3,025 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - The weakening US dollar and the strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter have pushed up zinc prices. However, the spot market is cold, with a significant decline in premiums. The operating rate of zinc alloy has dropped, and there may be a negative feedback from hidden inventory. TC remains stable, and overseas zinc ore shipments are increasing. Although the upward space is limited, the strong trend remains. There is still smelting profit, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and the increase in social inventory will bring downward pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Despite concerns about demand uncertainty due to macro and geopolitical factors, the strong reality of copper is increasingly strengthening. There is a potential pattern of buying on dips. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the absence of effective resonance between macro and micro factors, with a focus on the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina shows a tendency of fluctuating upward. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a game between weakening marginal demand and low ingot - casting volume and low - warehouse - receipt squeezing effects. For waste aluminum, there is still cost support, and continuous attention should be paid to the opportunity of rolling to do long on the AD - AL spread [1][2]. - Nickel: In the short - term, the firm raw material prices provide support, but the market lacks confidence. Mid - term demand may still restrict the fundamentals to be bearish. Attention should be paid to the premium of nickel ore and the inventory of primary nickel, as well as the changes in overseas policies [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.65% to $9,727/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.36% to 78,720 yuan/ton. The import of refined copper and scrap copper in China decreased, and the export window opened. The LME inventory dropped to below 100,000 tons, and the market was worried about extreme market conditions [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated strongly, with AO2509 closing at 2,937 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The spot price of alumina declined. The electrolytic aluminum market faced a game between demand and supply - side factors [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.14% to $15,075/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 1.19% to 119,490 yuan/ton. The stainless - steel market was in an oversupply state, and the supply and demand of nickel sulfate were both weak [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased, and the price of waste copper also rose. The LME inventory decreased by 1,200 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 955 tons [1][3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 180 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate price rose, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,125 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai changed slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 1,620 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased. The LME inventory increased by 432 tons, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 222 tons [2][4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price rose slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 575 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.26 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.4%. The LME inventory decreased by 25 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 142 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The document shows the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It presents the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][22][23]. - **LME Inventory**: The LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are demonstrated [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: It includes the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: The document shows the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **展大鹏**: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience [50]. - **王珩**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - **朱希**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot premium of zinc is moderately weak, and the inventory remains stable. The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market is poor, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged. The consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of cumulative inventory [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$22.95/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price drops by 240 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 20 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price drops by 280 yuan/ton to 21,990 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 60 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price drops by 230 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 10 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On June 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 21,745 yuan/ton and closes at 21,840 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 163,962 lots, a decrease of 27,075 lots, and the open interest is 116,264 lots, a decrease of 6,896 lots. The highest price is 21,935 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 21,660 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 78,100 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory is 130,225 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream raw material reserves are relatively sufficient, and the procurement enthusiasm is poor. The spot premium shows a moderately weak trend. The domestic ore TC is temporarily stable, the zinc ore import window is closed, and the overseas Q3 import ore TC is rising. The smelter's raw material inventory is still sufficient, and the long - term upward trend of the ore end remains unchanged. The smelting profit is stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged. The consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy start - up rate is increasing, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of cumulative inventory, possibly due to the "zinc alloy reservoir" phenomenon. The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market weakens, and the spot premium continues to decline [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

有色商品日报 | | 检修动态，主力换月至 09 合约，盘面交易几内亚雨季矿石限产预期。铝锭到货偏少， | | --- | --- | | | 价格下调后下游补库，铝锭延续小幅去库状态。中美关税态势缓解，宏观情绪回暖。光 | | | 伏退坡和出口新订单走弱，线缆后周期爆发或难以中和减量。叠加成本下移压力，铝价 | | | 短强长弱格局延续。关注库消情况以及后续关税谈判动态。 | | | 隔夜 LME 镍涨 0.35%报 15800 美元/吨，沪镍涨 0.92%报 125540 元/吨。库存方面，昨 | | | 日 LME 库存减少 84 吨至 198432 吨，国内 SHFE 仓单减少 398 吨至 23549 吨。升贴水 | | | 来看，LME0-3 月升贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水上涨 50 元/吨至 200 元/吨。镍矿方 | | | 面，价格仍偏强运行，菲律宾和印尼镍矿升水均有上涨。不锈钢方面，据铁合金，近日 | | | 华东某钢厂印尼铁采购价为 940 元/镍(舱底含税)，总成交量 6000 吨，交期 6 月初；供 | | | 应端 300 系出现小幅减产，据 mysteel，5 月粗钢排产 348 ...

Group 1 - After the Labor Day holiday, Shanghai aluminum futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 19,300 yuan/ton, driven by market uncertainty and expectations of weaker future demand [1] - Analysts indicate that the bearish sentiment in the market is partly due to the transition from the peak consumption season to a period of lower demand, as well as the impact of U.S. tariff policies on exports [1][3] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains at historically high levels, while downstream processing rates have begun to decline, leading to an accumulation of nearly 40,000 tons of aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventory during the holiday [1][3] Group 2 - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum is around 16,500 yuan/ton, influenced by a significant drop in alumina prices, which may exert further downward pressure on aluminum prices amid weakening consumption expectations [3][5] - The macroeconomic environment, including potential monetary easing and the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, could provide some support for aluminum prices, although concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on global demand persist [4][5] - The market is closely monitoring the performance of inventory and the spot market, as well as the upstream alumina prices, to gauge future trends in aluminum pricing [5]