Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend in antimony prices, driven by supply constraints and demand dynamics, particularly in the photovoltaic glass sector and flame retardants [2][3][5]. Group 1: Antimony Price Trends - On March 13, 2025, the price of antimony ingots (0, Sb≥99.90%, domestic) reached 173,000 yuan/ton, with a 19% increase from February 6 to March 13, 2025 [2]. - The antimony price center has shifted upwards, with domestic prices rising from 84,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2024 to 160,000 yuan/ton by June 28, 2024, despite a slight decline in the second half of the year [3]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The supply of antimony from the Polar Gold mine is expected to continue declining, with a projected production of 12,700 tons in 2024, a 53% year-on-year decrease, accounting for only 10% of global antimony production [4]. - The company's inventory value for antimony dropped significantly from 2.2 million dollars in 2023 to 100,000 dollars in 2024, indicating substantial sales of existing inventory [4]. Group 3: Demand Outlook - Domestic demand for antimony is expected to remain high, driven by the brominated flame retardant sector, with household appliances accounting for 22% of this demand in 2021 [5]. - The photovoltaic sector is also showing signs of recovery, with daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass increasing by 8.2% to 86,800 tons as of March 7, 2025, compared to the low point in February [5]. Group 4: Global Supply-Demand Gap - The global supply of antimony is projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.4% from 2024 to 2027, while demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.4%, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap [7].

Core Viewpoint - The supply of antimony from Jidi Gold is expected to significantly shrink in 2025, exacerbating the supply tightness in the market [2] Industry Status - On March 5, Jidi Gold released its 2024 annual report, indicating an antimony production of 12,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 53%. The production in the second half of 2024 is projected to be 4,056 tons, with both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter declines of 70% and 53% respectively [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic antimony price has reached a historical high due to a combination of strong demand and reduced imports. The demand from sectors like home appliances is peaking, and the photovoltaic industry is expected to ramp up production ahead of market reforms [3] - In December 2024, China exported 1,571 tons of antimony oxide, a month-on-month increase of 102%. However, imports of antimony ore fell significantly, with 2,141 tons imported in December 2024, a decrease of 63% [3] - The domestic antimony ingot price was reported at 170,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 8% compared to previous highs. The price difference between domestic and international markets is over 250,000 yuan per ton, indicating high import costs [3] Long-term Outlook - The supply-demand tightness for antimony is expected to persist, with global antimony prices likely to rise further. The growth in photovoltaic installations and the increasing penetration of dual-glass components are anticipated to drive demand for antimony in glass applications [4] - The projected supply-demand gap for antimony from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at -28,000, -25,000, and -29,000 tons respectively, representing -18%, -15%, and -18% of demand [4]

摘要 行业近况 3月5日晚，极地黄金发布2024年年报，2024年锑产量1.27万吨，同比-53%。其中2H24锑产量4056吨，同/ 环比-70%/-53%。 评论 我们预计极地黄金2025年锑供应或将大幅收缩，进一步加剧供应紧张态势。 一是公司已于2024年完成 Olimplada项目中含锑的Vostockny矿坑第四阶段开采，目前正在进行第五阶段的剥离活动，需持续至2026- 2027年。二是2024年底锑存货价值约100万美元，较2023年底2200万美元大幅下降，2024年公司对于锑库 存已大幅消化。三是我们测算2024年极地黄金锑矿产量占全球比例约为10%，在全球锑矿供应刚性背景 下，我们认为其供应大幅收缩或对全球锑行业供需产生较大影响。 内外需共振叠加进口矿收缩，国内锑价创历史新高。 一是家电等领域用阻燃剂正值采购旺季；我们认为新 能源上网电价市场化改革[1]有望推动国内光伏行业今年6月1日前抢装，光伏玻璃日熔量企稳回升。据隆众 石化网，3月6日光伏玻璃日熔量8.68万吨，周环比+6%，较今年2月最低点+8%。二是据海关数据，2024年 12月我国出口氧化锑1571吨，环比+102%。三是内外盘 ...