Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the antimony industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - Antimony prices have stabilized and are expected to initiate a new round of increases, with domestic antimony ingot prices at 180,500 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices at 161,000 CNY/metal ton as of August 19 [1]. - Following the implementation of export controls in September 2024, antimony exports saw a significant decline, with only 4,650 tons of antimony oxide exported in the first half of 2025, representing just 27% of the same period last year [1][4]. - Antimony prices experienced a peak increase from 137,000 CNY/ton to 233,000 CNY/ton during the first quarter of 2025, but have since retreated due to a crackdown on strategic mineral smuggling [1]. - New trade support policies are anticipated to be introduced in early September, coinciding with the traditional peak season for demand, which may lead to a rebound in antimony prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Export Trends - After a brief recovery, antimony exports plummeted following the implementation of export controls, with monthly average exports of antimony oxide at 1,195 tons from December to April, only 38% of the average for the first nine months of 2024 [4]. - The export volume of antimony oxide dropped significantly in May, with only 320 tons exported in total from May to July [4]. Industry Scale - The antimony industry comprises 235 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 496.67 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 461.06 billion CNY [8]. Import Trends - Antimony ore imports from January to July 2025 totaled 20,223 tons, a decrease of 36.9% year-on-year, indicating a tight domestic supply situation [13]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining, Huaxi Nonferrous, Zhuhai Group, and Xingye Silver Antimony as potential investment opportunities [15].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The antimony market is expected to stabilize and rise due to anticipated export recovery, similar to trends observed in rare earths and tungsten [1] - The global antimony production from 2014 to 2024 is projected to have nearly zero growth, with China dominating global production at 70% [1][5] - Antimony demand in China has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% over the past five years, primarily driven by the photovoltaic (PV) industry [1][5] - Current visible antimony inventory is at a five-year low of 3,000-4,000 tons, with hidden inventory cleared last year, reducing future inventory pressure [1][5] Core Insights - The antimony sector is expected to benefit from a risk-on sentiment in the industrial metals market due to a liquidity easing environment [2] - Export recovery is anticipated to drive a reversal in marginal demand, with low-price optimism potentially reversing in the near term [2] - The long-term outlook for antimony remains bullish, supported by supply-demand dynamics, inventory levels, and funding factors [2][5] Marginal Demand Analysis - A marginal demand table has been constructed to predict price reversals based on PV glass export and import data [3] - The table successfully predicted price reversals in October 2024, March 2025, and May 2025, correlating with changes in export volumes and marginal demand [3][4] Long-term Bull Market Factors - Supply-side constraints are evident, with a compound growth rate of only 0.16% in global antimony mining from 2014 to 2024 [5] - The domestic TPU production in China has decreased by 17% year-on-year, with imports down 48% [5] - Demand from the PV sector is expected to remain resilient despite potential short-term declines, supported by price control policies [5] Recommended Companies - Companies to watch include Huaxi Nonferrous, Hunan Gold, and Huayu Mining, with a specific recommendation for Yuguang Gold Lead due to its low valuation and significant by-product recovery [6] - Yuguang Gold Lead has seen a doubling in small metal recovery revenue and a quadrupling in gross profit since 2019, with stable costs [6] - The company is currently valued at less than 8 times earnings, presenting a potential investment opportunity if the antimony sector fully activates [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for domestic antimony prices in the medium to long term [5]. Core Insights - Antimony prices are expected to rise due to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, with domestic antimony prices reaching 173,000 CNY per ton as of March 13, 2025, reflecting a 19% increase from early February [1][2]. - The supply of antimony from the Polar Gold mine is projected to continue declining, with a significant drop in production expected in 2024 [3]. - Domestic demand for antimony is anticipated to remain high, driven by the brominated flame retardant sector and the recovery of photovoltaic glass production [4]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The antimony price center has shifted upward, with domestic prices rising from 84,000 CNY per ton at the beginning of 2024 to 160,000 CNY per ton by June 28, 2024 [2]. - The global antimony supply is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.4% from 2024 to 2027, while demand is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.4%, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap [4]. Key Companies and Financial Projections - The report highlights key companies such as Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayu Mining, with specific earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios provided for 2023 to 2025 [6]. - Hunan Gold is projected to have an EPS of 1.06 CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 22.4 [6]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The report notes that the demand for antimony in the brominated flame retardant sector is stable, with household appliances contributing significantly to this demand [4]. - The recovery of antimony exports and the anticipated increase in photovoltaic glass production are expected to support higher domestic antimony prices [5].

摘要 行业近况 3月5日晚，极地黄金发布2024年年报，2024年锑产量1.27万吨，同比-53%。其中2H24锑产量4056吨，同/ 环比-70%/-53%。 评论 我们预计极地黄金2025年锑供应或将大幅收缩，进一步加剧供应紧张态势。 一是公司已于2024年完成 Olimplada项目中含锑的Vostockny矿坑第四阶段开采，目前正在进行第五阶段的剥离活动，需持续至2026- 2027年。二是2024年底锑存货价值约100万美元，较2023年底2200万美元大幅下降，2024年公司对于锑库 存已大幅消化。三是我们测算2024年极地黄金锑矿产量占全球比例约为10%，在全球锑矿供应刚性背景 下，我们认为其供应大幅收缩或对全球锑行业供需产生较大影响。 内外需共振叠加进口矿收缩，国内锑价创历史新高。 一是家电等领域用阻燃剂正值采购旺季；我们认为新 能源上网电价市场化改革[1]有望推动国内光伏行业今年6月1日前抢装，光伏玻璃日熔量企稳回升。据隆众 石化网，3月6日光伏玻璃日熔量8.68万吨，周环比+6%，较今年2月最低点+8%。二是据海关数据，2024年 12月我国出口氧化锑1571吨，环比+102%。三是内外盘 ...