Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is driven by supply constraints and positive macroeconomic expectations, with the main contract reaching a new high since May 2022, reflecting a cumulative increase of 23.3% since June 2023 [2][3]. Supply Side - Tin prices are supported by tight supply, particularly due to slow recovery in Myanmar's Wa State tin mines and low export volumes [2]. - The global tin supply is expected to face increasing disruptions, with Southeast Asian tin-producing countries tightening policies, leading to a scarcity of tin resources [3][4]. Demand Side - The demand for tin is primarily driven by emerging sectors, particularly the semiconductor and consumer electronics industries, which are experiencing growth. The global semiconductor sales are projected to reach $627.6 billion in 2024, a 19.1% increase from 2023 [3]. - Tin solder demand in semiconductor packaging, which accounts for 65% of tin consumption, is expected to grow at a rate of 5% to 7% by 2025 [3]. Market Performance - The average price of tin reached 309,700 yuan/ton on December 3, 2023, marking a 5-day streak above the 300,000 yuan threshold [2]. - Tin concept stocks have seen significant price increases, with an average rise of 113.08% this year. Notable performers include Xingye Silver Tin, Shengtun Mining, and Huaxi Nonferrous, with increases of 226.33%, 160.32%, and 118.87% respectively [4]. Financial Performance - Seven listed companies in the tin industry reported a combined net profit of 43.314 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 47.47% [4]. - Zijin Mining reported a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan, a 55.45% increase year-on-year, with tin reserves totaling 123,200 tons [4][5]. - Xiyang Tin achieved a net profit of 1.745 billion yuan, a 35.99% increase year-on-year, maintaining the largest market share in global tin production [5]. Institutional Attention - Five tin concept stocks have received institutional ratings, with Zijin Mining and Xiyang Tin receiving the highest number of ratings at 25 and 17 respectively [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The tin market presents a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels. Technically, with a decline in positions and price corrections, the bullish sentiment has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for now, focusing on the range of 280,000 - 286,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 283,420 yuan/ton, up 1,330 yuan; the closing price of the December - January contract of Shanghai tin was - 230 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; LME 3 - month tin was 35,745 US dollars/ton, up 75 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai tin was 30,385 lots, down 2,237 lots; the net position of the top 20 in futures of Shanghai tin was - 772 lots, down 235 lots; LME tin total inventory was 2,940 tons, up 80 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 5,919 tons, up 153 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin were 5,865 tons, down 94 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 282,800 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 283,060 yuan/ton, up 1,630 yuan; the basis of the main Shanghai tin contract was - 620 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 39.5 US dollars/ton, down 25.5 US dollars; the import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 0.87 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 270,800 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 274,800 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin was 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 183,300 yuan/ton, up 1,130 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.1093 million tons, up 0.1448 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 0.1976 million tons, up 0.031 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, the US ADP employment increased by 42,000 people, the largest increase since July 2025, higher than the market expectation of 28,000 people; the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in October was 52.4, the highest since February 2025. The State Council will continue to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on US - imported goods for one year from November 10, 2025, and retain the 10% additional tariff rate. In October, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, with a penetration rate of 58.7% [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The US employment market shows signs of stabilization. In the fourth quarter, the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar is expected to increase steadily but with limited increments, while imports from Africa and Australia decline unexpectedly. Indonesia plans to accelerate the release of refined tin exports in the fourth quarter. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the processing fee of tin ore remains low; in Jiangxi, the waste recycling system is under pressure, and the production of refined tin is still limited. In the demand side, the spot market of tin ingots is relatively active, and domestic inventory remains stable while LME inventory increases slightly [3]

| | | ，开始进行少量采买补库，但整体市场成交还是比较差。现货升水小降至300元/吨，国内库存小增。技术 面，持仓下降多空谨慎。操作上，建议暂时观望，关注26.5关口支撑。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪锡产业日报 2025-08-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 267020 | 200 9月-10月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -270 | 40 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 33610 | 175 主力合 ...

| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-08-13 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 269820 | -380 9月-10月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -230 | -30 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 33770 | 55 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 25370 | -1155 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -129 | -117 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 1765 | 15 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7805 | 134 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | ...