新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-09 印尼政策反复叠加板块表现弱势，沪镍大幅下跌 镍品种 市场分析 2026-01-08日沪镍主力合约2602开于146500元/吨，收于136440元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-6.14%，当日成交量 为1520564（+388308）手，持仓量为128055（-4900）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约大幅下跌主要受消息面影响。据SMM报道，印度尼西亚能源和矿产资源部(ESDM) 在1月8日下午召开新闻发布会，对于2026年印尼镍矿RKAB审批方面，印尼能矿部长Bahil Lahadalia未披露具体数 额,并称仍在核算中，将根据2026年冶炼企业总需求量进行调整。该消息直接降低了印尼镍矿产能缩小预期，引发 市场对2026年供给宽松的担忧。此外，昨晚贵金属、有色板块下跌，也在一定程度上拖累了沪镍走势。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，近期镍矿市场招标落地，市场整体镍矿资源有限，叠加宏观因素影响，镍矿价格小 幅上涨。菲律宾方面，菲律宾Benguet矿山1.25镍矿招标落地至32.5美元，环比上涨。矿山出货挺价意愿较强。印尼 方面，2026年1月(一期)内贸基准价上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease significantly, with a predicted reduction of 80 yuan per ton, marking the eighth price cut this year [1]. Price Adjustment Summary - As of October 13, the retail price of refined oil will undergo a new round of adjustments, with the current forecast indicating a drop exceeding 50 yuan per ton [1]. - In 2023, there have been 19 rounds of price adjustments for domestic refined oil, including 6 increases, 6 instances of no change, and 7 decreases [1]. - The average decrease in gasoline and diesel prices compared to the end of last year is 405 yuan per ton and 390 yuan per ton, respectively [2]. International Oil Price Trends - On October 10, WTI crude oil futures fell by 5.32%, reaching the lowest point since May [3]. - The domestic crude oil futures also saw a decline, with the main contract dropping by 4.55%, nearing the May low [3]. - The recent significant drop in international oil prices suggests that there may still be room for further declines [5][6]. Market Analysis - Analysts from Guotai Junan Futures and Zhonghui Futures indicate that the combination of ample supply, weakening demand, and reduced geopolitical risks may lead to further declines in oil prices in the coming week [6]. - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on oil prices is highlighted as a significant factor, with expectations of continued downward pressure [6].

Group 1 - The overall trend of "double coke" futures prices continued to decline since October last year, with a rebound observed in June 2025 [1] - The coking coal market faced supply pressure leading to a continuous drop in prices, while coke prices followed suit due to cost collapse [1][2] - In the first quarter, domestic coal production was high, but a seasonal decline occurred during the Spring Festival, followed by a rapid recovery in production [1][2] Group 2 - The second quarter saw an oversupply of coke capacity and weak bargaining power, leading to continuous price reductions [2] - International trade tensions exacerbated market pessimism, further driving down commodity prices [2] - By the latter half of the second quarter, environmental policies and safety production measures led to production cuts in some regions, which, combined with low coal prices, improved market sentiment and prices began to rebound [2] Group 3 - In the first five months of the year, domestic coking coal production maintained a rapid growth rate, with a cumulative production increase of approximately 9.72 million tons, a 4.5% year-on-year rise [2][3] - Despite production cuts in May and June, the overall situation of oversupply and loose supply in the coal industry remained unchanged [3] - The majority of coal mines are still profitable, which is a key reason for their reluctance to cut production [3] Group 4 - The current coal industry policy focuses on stable production and supply to ensure energy security, with plans to implement a coal capacity reserve system by 2025 [3][4] - The approach to managing excess capacity has shifted from aggressive elimination to a more regulated exit of outdated capacity [4] Group 5 - Coking coal imports have decreased, alleviating supply pressure, with May imports down 17% month-on-month and 23% year-on-year [5][6] - The decline in Mongolian coal imports is attributed to the overall drop in domestic coal prices, reducing the cost-effectiveness of imported coal [6] Group 6 - Coking coal prices are at relatively low levels, with recent inventory levels at coking plants increasing slightly due to accelerated procurement [7] - Although there is a short-term inventory reduction, overall inventory levels remain high compared to previous years [7] - The production cuts driven by environmental and safety factors are not expected to be sustainable, and coal production is likely to remain high [7]

Investment Rating - The report rates the oil processing industry as "Positive" [1] Core Views - Oil prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend, with Brent and WTI prices reaching $66.47 and $64.58 per barrel respectively as of June 6, 2025, influenced by supply pressures and geopolitical factors [7][25] - The report highlights a significant increase in U.S. crude oil processing volume, which reached 16.99 million barrels per day, up by 670,000 barrels per day from the previous week [60] - The report notes a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., with a total of 442 rigs, down by 19 from the previous week [49] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $66.47 per barrel, up by $3.69 (5.88%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $64.58 per barrel, an increase of $3.79 (6.23%) [25] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms decreased to 380, down by 6 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms totaled 137, down by 1 [31] U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.408 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.07 million barrels per day from the previous week [49] U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume increased to 16.998 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.40%, up by 3.2 percentage points from the previous week [60] U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory stood at 838 million barrels, a decrease of 3.795 million barrels (-0.45%) from the previous week [69] U.S. Product Oil Inventory - U.S. gasoline inventory increased by 5.219 million barrels (2.34%), while diesel and jet fuel inventories also saw increases of 423,000 barrels (4.09%) and 93,800 barrels (2.20%) respectively [60] Related Stocks - Key stocks in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [1]