Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - L2605 is oscillating strongly, closing at 6,666 yuan/ton. Last week, Yangzi Petrochemical's 200,000-ton unit restarted, while Zhejiang Petrochemical's 400,000-ton, Fujian United's 450,000-ton, and Guangdong Petrochemical's 400,000-ton units were shut down for maintenance. PE production and capacity utilization decreased month-on-month. The downstream product operating rate continued to decline, with varying degrees of decline in the agricultural film and packaging film operating rates. The inventory of production enterprises and social inventory decreased month-on-month, with little inventory pressure. The cost of the oil-based process increased and losses deepened; the cost of the coal-based process decreased and profits expanded. Some shut-down units restarted this week, Guoneng Yulin's 300,000-ton unit had a short stop, and a new 250,000-ton maintenance unit was added at Maoming Petrochemical. The operating rate of downstream agricultural films may continue the seasonal downward trend, and the peak stocking period for packaging films has passed with limited demand follow-up [2]. - The situation between the US and Iran remains uncertain, and international oil prices may be disturbed by geopolitical factors. The demand side remains weak, but due to an increase in industry maintenance units, inventory has been smoothly reduced, and market wait-and-see sentiment has increased. The daily K-line of L2605 should pay attention to the support around 6,450 and the resistance around 6,710 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for polyethylene was 6,666 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 26. The closing price of the January 26 contract for polyethylene was 6,720 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 14. The closing price of the May contract for polyethylene was 6,666 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the September 26 contract for polyethylene was 6,694 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 30 [2]. - The trading volume was 374,602 lots, a decrease of 9,553 lots month-on-month. The open interest was 504,362 lots, an increase of 9,090 lots month-on-month [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread was 54, a decrease of 12. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions for polyethylene was 476,299 lots, and the sell order volume was 513,979 lots. The net buy order volume was -37,680 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,693.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.87 yuan/ton month-on-month. The average price in East China was 6,836.28 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.14 yuan/ton month-on-month [2]. Basis - The basis was 53.91, a decrease of 53.87 month-on-month [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid-price of naphtha in the Singapore region was 58.21 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.08. The CFR mid-price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 549 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.5. The CFR mid-price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 691 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 10, and the CFR mid-price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 711 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 81.59%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 48.15%, a decrease of 0.81 percentage points week-on-week. The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) pipes was 29.33%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points week-on-week. The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) agricultural films was 36.93%, a decrease of 0.96 percentage points week-on-week [2]. Option Market - The 20-day historical volatility of polyethylene was 14.32%, a decrease of 2.78 percentage points. The 40-day historical volatility was 14.73%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at-the-money put options for polyethylene was 14.03%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points, and the implied volatility of at-the-money call options was 14.03%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From January 9th to 15th, China's total polyethylene production was 669,800 tons, a decrease of 2.47% from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 81.6%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points from the previous period [2]. - From January 9th to 15th, the average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.3% from the previous period. Among them, the operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 1.0% from the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.8% from the previous period [2]. - As of January 21st, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 335,000 tons, a decrease of 4.37% from the previous week. As of January 16th, the social inventory of PE was 477,400 tons, an increase of 1.43% from the previous week [2]. - From January 9th to 15th, the cost of oil-based LLDPE increased by 4.29% month-on-month to 7,217 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 60 yuan/ton to -531 yuan/ton. The cost of coal-based LLDPE increased by 2.57% month-on-month to 6,559 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 183 yuan/ton to 217 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no mention of the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel variety, although the current fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, with frequent positive policies from Indonesia and a long period of bottom - side oscillation, it is likely to be in a high - level oscillation state, but its trend depends on the overall sector sentiment. For the stainless - steel variety, the short - term trend highly depends on the performance of Shanghai nickel, and in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the improvement of spot trading and policy implementation rhythm [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 8, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 146,500 yuan/ton and closed at 136,440 yuan/ton, a - 6.14% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,520,564 (+388,308) lots, and the open interest was 128,055 (-4,900) lots. The sharp decline was due to the Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister not disclosing the specific amount of 2026 nickel - mine RKAB approval and the decline of the precious - metal and non - ferrous sectors [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel - ore market has limited resources. The 1.25 nickel - ore from the Benguet mine in the Philippines was tendered at $32.5, a month - on - month increase. In January 2026 (Phase 1), the domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia increased by $0.05 - 0.08 per wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 152,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading improved, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands remained high. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 39,330 (+554) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 276,300 (+666) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 8, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 14,050 yuan/ton and closed at 13,675 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 424,667 (+136,211) lots, and the open interest was 114,820 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a high - opening, low - closing, and oscillating - downward trend. The stainless - steel futures are easily affected by the price fluctuations of Shanghai nickel, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of the Indonesian nickel - ore quota policy [3]. - **Spot**: The futures decline led to a limited callback in some spot prices, and the trading volume also decreased significantly. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 13,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 130 - 330 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 12.50 yuan per nickel point to 960.0 yuan per nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. It is recommended to control positions, trade based on key support levels, and be vigilant against the risk of linked callbacks [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend judgments for various commodities, including "bullish", "bearish", "sideways", etc. for specific products. 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: Domestic factors have weak driving force for stock indices, with weak fundamentals and a policy vacuum. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the probability of stock indices breaking upward is low without significant positive news. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted by the central bank [1]. - **Commodities**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, silver prices are expected to enter a weak sideways trend; copper prices may correct after rising; aluminum prices remain strong due to inventory decline; zinc prices are pressured by inventory increase, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - financial** - **Stock indices**: Domestic factors are weak, overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations. Without significant positive news, the probability of upward breakthrough is low. It is recommended to wait and see, being vigilant about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted by the central bank, suppressing the upward movement. In the short - term, they may move sideways, while the long - term upward logic is still solid [1]. **Non - ferrous metals** - **Silver**: Expected to enter a weak sideways trend in the short - term [1]. - **Copper**: After the price rises, there is a risk of correction due to the decline in market risk appetite [1]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to decline, increasing the risk of a short squeeze, and the price remains strong [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, while the futures price is weak, with a significant futures discount. The profit of the smelting end is okay, and the increase in production pressures the futures price [1]. - **Zinc**: Inventory increase on Monday pressures the price. The downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability of social inventory on Thursday. Buyers can enter the market at an appropriate time [1]. - **Nickel**: The removal of the nickel ore export ban in the Philippines suppresses market sentiment. The nickel price is in a weak sideways trend in the short - term, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short - term [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The spot trading is weak, and social inventory slightly increases. In the short - term, the futures are in a weak sideways trend, and there is still supply pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations [1]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is expected to be affected by the Thai ban, and the short - term price is in a high - level sideways trend [1]. **Industrial metals** - **Industrial silicon**: The supply side shows an improvement trend, the demand side remains low without improvement, and the inventory pressure is huge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The mine - end price continues to decline, and downstream raw material inventory is high, with inactive purchases [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: In the window period from peak season to off - season, the cost is loose, and the supply - demand pattern is loose, with no upward driving force observed [1]. - **Iron ore**: There is an expectation that iron - making water has reached its peak, and there will be an increase in supply in June. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure on steel [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: Short - term supply - demand is balanced, with a slight increase in production and okay demand, but there is heavy warehouse receipt pressure [1]. - **Silicon iron**: The cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure of supply - demand surplus [1]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak, the off - season is coming, demand is weakening, and the price continues to be weak [1]. - **Soda ash**: Maintenance is gradually restored, direct demand is okay, but there are concerns about supply surplus, and terminal demand is weak, pressuring the price [1]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The spot prices continue to weaken. Against the background of a high basis, the futures rebound to repair the discount. It is still possible to short - sell coking coal, and coke prices decline synchronously with the decrease in the cost of coal for furnace entry [1]. **Agricultural products** - **Palm oil**: According to the May report of MPOB, if there are unexpected data, there may be a gap - opening market at the opening of the afternoon session. There is a game between weak fundamentals and the fluctuations of other oils [1]. - **Soybean oil**: The expectation of Sino - Canadian negotiations is blocked, there is a lack of key negative driving forces, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the rebound of the futures [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are still strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be in a weak sideways trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio in the new crushing season [1]. - **Corn**: The annual supply - demand is expected to be tight, the wheat price stabilizes under the purchasing - support policy, and the corn price is expected to be sideways in the short - term [1]. - **Soybean meal**: The center of the futures price is lifted by the expectation of de - stocking in the fourth quarter and the slow inventory accumulation. However, with the continuous progress of ship purchases, if the weather is normal, the increase of M09 is expected to be limited, and it will generally remain sideways [1]. - **Pulp**: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: The supply is abundant, the demand is light, and there is a lack of positive factors. It is recommended to hold short positions or short - sell after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is generally good. The futures are at a large discount to the spot. The spot is less affected by slaughter in the short - term, and the futures remain stable overall [1]. **Energy and chemicals** - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: The Sino - US Geneva negotiations have no unexpected results, geopolitical situations are disturbing, and the summer consumption peak may provide support [1]. - **Asphalt**: The cost side drags down, the inventory returns to normal with a reduced accumulation slope, and the demand is slowly recovering. The end of the 14th Five - Year Plan this year is promising for the downstream [1]. - **BR rubber**: The cost support weakens as the price of butadiene is reduced. In the short - term, high inventory and weak demand continue, and the price is expected to decline sideways due to the fall in raw material prices. In the long - term, pay attention to the support of butadiene maintenance and demand improvement [1]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation has been alleviated to some extent, and the short - fiber cost is closely related to it. Short - fiber factories have maintenance plans [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol expands due to the fall in coal prices. It continues to de - stock, and the arrival volume will decrease. The polyester production cut has an impact, and it is expected to continue to decline [1]. - **Styrene**: The basis difference between futures and spot returns fully, the cost support weakens, and the inventory decreases significantly [1]. - **PE**: There are many maintenance activities, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price moves sideways with a slight upward trend [1]. - **PVC**: Maintenance is about to end, new plants are put into operation, and the downstream enters the seasonal off - season. Supply pressure increases, and the price moves sideways with a downward trend. Pay attention to the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations [1]. - **LPG**: The supply increases, port inventory is high, and the demand in the combustion off - season suppresses the price. Chemical demand has no significant increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling high and buying low from mid - June to the end of the month [1]. **Shipping** - **Container shipping (European routes)**: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. In the short - term, be cautious when short - selling during the price - holding period. As the futures start to show a safety margin, it is possible to lightly go long on the peak - season contracts. Pay attention to the 6 - 8 reverse spread, 8 - 10 and 12 - 4 positive spreads [1].