名石化25万吨检修装置。下游农膜开工率或维持季节性下降趋势，包装膜备货峰值已过、需求跟进有限。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 成本方面，美伊局势仍有不确定性，国际油价或受地缘因素扰动。需求端持续偏弱，但由于行业检修装置 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 有所增加，库存去化顺利，市场观望情绪上升。L2605日度K线关注6450附近支撑与6710附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 塑料产业日报 2026-01-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6666 | 26 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6720 | 14 | | | 5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no mention of the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel variety, although the current fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, with frequent positive policies from Indonesia and a long period of bottom - side oscillation, it is likely to be in a high - level oscillation state, but its trend depends on the overall sector sentiment. For the stainless - steel variety, the short - term trend highly depends on the performance of Shanghai nickel, and in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the improvement of spot trading and policy implementation rhythm [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 8, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 146,500 yuan/ton and closed at 136,440 yuan/ton, a - 6.14% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,520,564 (+388,308) lots, and the open interest was 128,055 (-4,900) lots. The sharp decline was due to the Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister not disclosing the specific amount of 2026 nickel - mine RKAB approval and the decline of the precious - metal and non - ferrous sectors [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel - ore market has limited resources. The 1.25 nickel - ore from the Benguet mine in the Philippines was tendered at $32.5, a month - on - month increase. In January 2026 (Phase 1), the domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia increased by $0.05 - 0.08 per wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 152,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading improved, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands remained high. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 39,330 (+554) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 276,300 (+666) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 8, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 14,050 yuan/ton and closed at 13,675 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 424,667 (+136,211) lots, and the open interest was 114,820 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a high - opening, low - closing, and oscillating - downward trend. The stainless - steel futures are easily affected by the price fluctuations of Shanghai nickel, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of the Indonesian nickel - ore quota policy [3]. - **Spot**: The futures decline led to a limited callback in some spot prices, and the trading volume also decreased significantly. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 13,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 130 - 330 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 12.50 yuan per nickel point to 960.0 yuan per nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. It is recommended to control positions, trade based on key support levels, and be vigilant against the risk of linked callbacks [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend judgments for various commodities, including "bullish", "bearish", "sideways", etc. for specific products. 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: Domestic factors have weak driving force for stock indices, with weak fundamentals and a policy vacuum. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the probability of stock indices breaking upward is low without significant positive news. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted by the central bank [1]. - **Commodities**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, silver prices are expected to enter a weak sideways trend; copper prices may correct after rising; aluminum prices remain strong due to inventory decline; zinc prices are pressured by inventory increase, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - financial** - **Stock indices**: Domestic factors are weak, overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations. Without significant positive news, the probability of upward breakthrough is low. It is recommended to wait and see, being vigilant about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted by the central bank, suppressing the upward movement. In the short - term, they may move sideways, while the long - term upward logic is still solid [1]. **Non - ferrous metals** - **Silver**: Expected to enter a weak sideways trend in the short - term [1]. - **Copper**: After the price rises, there is a risk of correction due to the decline in market risk appetite [1]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to decline, increasing the risk of a short squeeze, and the price remains strong [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, while the futures price is weak, with a significant futures discount. The profit of the smelting end is okay, and the increase in production pressures the futures price [1]. - **Zinc**: Inventory increase on Monday pressures the price. The downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability of social inventory on Thursday. Buyers can enter the market at an appropriate time [1]. - **Nickel**: The removal of the nickel ore export ban in the Philippines suppresses market sentiment. The nickel price is in a weak sideways trend in the short - term, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short - term [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The spot trading is weak, and social inventory slightly increases. In the short - term, the futures are in a weak sideways trend, and there is still supply pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations [1]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is expected to be affected by the Thai ban, and the short - term price is in a high - level sideways trend [1]. **Industrial metals** - **Industrial silicon**: The supply side shows an improvement trend, the demand side remains low without improvement, and the inventory pressure is huge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The mine - end price continues to decline, and downstream raw material inventory is high, with inactive purchases [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: In the window period from peak season to off - season, the cost is loose, and the supply - demand pattern is loose, with no upward driving force observed [1]. - **Iron ore**: There is an expectation that iron - making water has reached its peak, and there will be an increase in supply in June. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure on steel [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: Short - term supply - demand is balanced, with a slight increase in production and okay demand, but there is heavy warehouse receipt pressure [1]. - **Silicon iron**: The cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure of supply - demand surplus [1]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak, the off - season is coming, demand is weakening, and the price continues to be weak [1]. - **Soda ash**: Maintenance is gradually restored, direct demand is okay, but there are concerns about supply surplus, and terminal demand is weak, pressuring the price [1]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The spot prices continue to weaken. Against the background of a high basis, the futures rebound to repair the discount. It is still possible to short - sell coking coal, and coke prices decline synchronously with the decrease in the cost of coal for furnace entry [1]. **Agricultural products** - **Palm oil**: According to the May report of MPOB, if there are unexpected data, there may be a gap - opening market at the opening of the afternoon session. There is a game between weak fundamentals and the fluctuations of other oils [1]. - **Soybean oil**: The expectation of Sino - Canadian negotiations is blocked, there is a lack of key negative driving forces, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the rebound of the futures [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are still strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be in a weak sideways trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio in the new crushing season [1]. - **Corn**: The annual supply - demand is expected to be tight, the wheat price stabilizes under the purchasing - support policy, and the corn price is expected to be sideways in the short - term [1]. - **Soybean meal**: The center of the futures price is lifted by the expectation of de - stocking in the fourth quarter and the slow inventory accumulation. However, with the continuous progress of ship purchases, if the weather is normal, the increase of M09 is expected to be limited, and it will generally remain sideways [1]. - **Pulp**: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: The supply is abundant, the demand is light, and there is a lack of positive factors. It is recommended to hold short positions or short - sell after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is generally good. The futures are at a large discount to the spot. The spot is less affected by slaughter in the short - term, and the futures remain stable overall [1]. **Energy and chemicals** - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: The Sino - US Geneva negotiations have no unexpected results, geopolitical situations are disturbing, and the summer consumption peak may provide support [1]. - **Asphalt**: The cost side drags down, the inventory returns to normal with a reduced accumulation slope, and the demand is slowly recovering. The end of the 14th Five - Year Plan this year is promising for the downstream [1]. - **BR rubber**: The cost support weakens as the price of butadiene is reduced. In the short - term, high inventory and weak demand continue, and the price is expected to decline sideways due to the fall in raw material prices. In the long - term, pay attention to the support of butadiene maintenance and demand improvement [1]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation has been alleviated to some extent, and the short - fiber cost is closely related to it. Short - fiber factories have maintenance plans [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol expands due to the fall in coal prices. It continues to de - stock, and the arrival volume will decrease. The polyester production cut has an impact, and it is expected to continue to decline [1]. - **Styrene**: The basis difference between futures and spot returns fully, the cost support weakens, and the inventory decreases significantly [1]. - **PE**: There are many maintenance activities, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price moves sideways with a slight upward trend [1]. - **PVC**: Maintenance is about to end, new plants are put into operation, and the downstream enters the seasonal off - season. Supply pressure increases, and the price moves sideways with a downward trend. Pay attention to the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations [1]. - **LPG**: The supply increases, port inventory is high, and the demand in the combustion off - season suppresses the price. Chemical demand has no significant increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling high and buying low from mid - June to the end of the month [1]. **Shipping** - **Container shipping (European routes)**: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. In the short - term, be cautious when short - selling during the price - holding period. As the futures start to show a safety margin, it is possible to lightly go long on the peak - season contracts. Pay attention to the 6 - 8 reverse spread, 8 - 10 and 12 - 4 positive spreads [1].