Group 1 - Institutions remain bullish on long-term bonds, driven by allocation strategies. From January 1 to February 6, brokerages and funds net sold over 108.6 billion yuan of ultra-long-term bonds (maturity over 20 years), compared to a net sale of only 5.7 billion yuan in the same period last year. Meanwhile, insurance funds net bought 120.6 billion yuan of ultra-long-term bonds, and rural commercial banks net bought 50 billion yuan, increasing by 55.4 billion yuan and 68.8 billion yuan year-on-year respectively [1] - Despite significant net selling by brokerages and funds, the rise in bond yields has enhanced the allocation value, prompting rural commercial banks and insurance funds to increase their holdings in ultra-long bonds. The current steep yield curve indicates that while the cost of liabilities for rural commercial banks has decreased significantly, the spread on bonds with maturities of 7 years or less is low, necessitating longer durations for better returns [1] - The People's Bank of China purchased 100 billion yuan of government bonds in January, an increase of 50 billion yuan from the previous month, which may continue at this level or higher, improving the supply-demand relationship for government bonds. Additionally, bank deposits grew well in January, and with the central bank's interest rate cuts on monetary tools, the motivation for banks to issue interbank certificates of deposit is low [1] Group 2 - As of February 9, 2026, the China Bond 5-10 Year Treasury Active Bond Index (net price) rose by 0.03%. The Treasury ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) increased by 0.08%, marking its third consecutive rise, with the latest price at 116.1 yuan. Over the past week, the Treasury ETF for 5 to 10 years has accumulated a rise of 0.23% [3] - In terms of liquidity, the Treasury ETF for 5 to 10 years had a turnover of 1.99% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 23.17 million yuan. Over the past year, the average daily transaction volume for this ETF has been 600 million yuan [3] - The latest size of the Treasury ETF for 5 to 10 years reached 1.166 billion yuan. The maximum drawdown for this ETF since the beginning of the year is 0.21%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.08%. The recovery days after the drawdown were 5 days [3]

Group 1 - Institutions remain bullish on long-term bonds, driven by allocation despite net selling by brokers and funds of over 108.6 billion yuan in ultra-long-term bonds (maturity over 20 years) from January 1 to February 6, compared to a net sell of only 5.7 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - Insurance funds net purchased 120.6 billion yuan of ultra-long-term bonds, while city and rural commercial banks net bought 50 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 55.4 billion yuan and 68.8 billion yuan year-on-year respectively [1] - The steepening yield curve and declining funding costs for city and rural commercial banks enhance the incentive to allocate government bonds, with expectations that the cost of liabilities for these banks will drop below 1.6% in Q1 2026 [1] Group 2 - From November 20, 2025, to February 6, 2026, brokers, funds, and pension funds collectively net sold 354.8 billion yuan of ultra-long-term bonds, indicating a preference for mid- to short-term bonds [2] - The positive impact of rising stock markets on ultra-long-term bonds has significantly diminished, and if market expectations for stocks decline, there may be a rebound in ultra-long-term bond purchases, potentially driving the 30-year government bond yield down significantly [2] - Institutions predict that the 10-year government bond yield will break 1.80% and trend towards 1.75%, while the 30-year government bond yield may return below 2.2% [2] Group 3 - As of February 6, 2026, the active bond index for 5-10 year government bonds rose by 0.06%, with the corresponding ETF also increasing by 0.06% to a latest price of 116.01 yuan [4] - The liquidity of the 5-10 year government bond ETF was active, with a turnover of 227.23% and a transaction volume of 2.674 billion yuan, indicating strong market activity [4] - The ETF's management fee is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, with a tracking error of 0.024% over the past three months, closely following the active bond index [4]

Core Viewpoint - The trading activity of government bond ETFs has increased, indicating a potential initiation of a long-term bond market trend in Q4 2025 [1] Group 1: Trading Activity - The turnover rate of government bond ETFs has risen, suggesting more clients are opting to trade these instruments [1] - As of November 11, 2025, the turnover for the 5-10 year government bond ETF was 48.29%, with a transaction volume of 800 million yuan, reflecting active market participation [1] - The average daily transaction volume for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past week was 1.342 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Fund Performance - The latest size of the 5-10 year government bond ETF reached 1.656 billion yuan, marking a six-month high [2] - Over the past five trading days, the fund attracted a total inflow of 49.3255 million yuan [2] - The net value of the 5-10 year government bond ETF has increased by 21.81% over the past five years, ranking 30th out of 181 in the index bond fund category [2] Group 3: Return Metrics - Since its inception, the highest monthly return for the 5-10 year government bond ETF was 2.58%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 10 months [2] - The fund has a historical profit probability of 100% over three years, with a monthly profit probability of 71.01% [2] Group 4: Risk Metrics - As of November 11, 2025, the maximum drawdown for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past six months was 1.09%, compared to a benchmark drawdown of 0.46% [3] Group 5: Fee Structure - The management fee for the 5-10 year government bond ETF is 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [4] Group 6: Tracking Accuracy - The tracking error for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past month was 0.025%, closely following the index of active government bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years [5]