1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the government bond supply increment is expected to decrease significantly, with a possible rhythm disturbance rather than a trend impact [3] - The current core pressure lies on the demand side, but the demand side is expected to improve recently [4] - The bond market may remain volatile this month, waiting for possible allocation opportunities at the end of the month [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Quarter Government Bond Issuance Plan - **Treasury Bonds**: The issuance plan in Q1 2026 is similar to that of last year. The issuance scale of single - issue treasury bonds has increased this week, but whether it will continue to be large - scale needs further observation. From 2024 - 2025, the single - issue scale of general treasury bonds is usually lower in Q1 and Q4 and higher in Q2 and Q3 [8] - **Local Bonds**: The planned issuance scale in Q1 2026 may be lower than last year. The issuance rhythm is more front - loaded in January, but the planned issuance amount and net financing in February and March are expected to be lower than last year. The term structure of the disclosed areas has been shortened, but the national - level change needs further observation [13][16] 3.2 Past Government Bond Issuance Characteristics - **Rhythm**: In 2025, the issuance of general treasury bonds and special refinancing bonds was front - loaded, and the issuance rhythm of special bonds was slower than expected. This characteristic is expected to continue in Q1 2026 [23][25] - **Term**: In recent years, the issuance term of government bonds has generally lengthened, with the average duration of local bonds increasing from 11.95 years in 2021 to 15.62 years in 2025, and the issuance term of treasury bonds rising from 6.34 years in 2022 to 8.33 years in 2025 [30] 3.3 Supply Pressure as a Disturbance, Long - term Bond Demand as the Core - **Supply**: The government bond increment in 2026 is expected to decrease significantly, with the impact being more about rhythm rather than trend [33] - **Demand**: The demand for long - term bonds was insufficient at the end of 2025, but the demand side is expected to improve recently. The bond market may be volatile in January and is expected to gradually recover after the supply shock at the end of the month [33][35][36]

国开ETF（159650）基金经理 吕瑞君 上周五（12月19日）央行净投放呵护流动性，资金面延续宽松，当日央行净投放357亿元。本周一银行 间流动性延续宽松，主要资金价格徘徊低位，当日央行净回笼1836亿元。本周二银行间流动性维持宽松 态势，隔夜资金价格持稳，当日央行净回笼760亿元。本周三银行间流动性宽松态势更甚，主要回购利 率进一步小幅走低，不过非银资金价格有所抬升，当日央行净回笼208亿元。本周四银行间流动性维持 宽松，隔夜资金价格徘徊低位，跨月因素推动下DR007加权有所抬升，当日央行投放888亿元。12月15 日央行还进行了4000亿元1年期MLF操作，本月有3000亿元MLF到期，净投放1000亿元。本周四（12月 25日）相较于上周五，DR001下行1bp收于1.26%，DR007上行4bp收于 1.48%。 海外方面，欧洲央行执行理事会成员Isabel Schnabel表示，她预计一段时间内不会加息。Schnabel近期发 表的言论促使投资者加大对明年加息概率的押注，她对此表示，自己并没有说利率应当上调。"目前来 看，在可预见的将来，预计不会加息，"她在周一发布的一则FAZ播客中表示。"除非 ...

中信证券研报认为，近期长债和超长债波动幅度加大，可能主要源于商业银行负债端压力。压力一方面 与监管考核等季节性因素有关，另一方面在央行延续货币政策框架改革背景下，或被央行扩表工具的投 放逐步对冲。考虑次年财政端压力或相对可控，在资金宽松而降息降准等宽货币工具仍待落地的大环境 下，长远来看超长债仍具一定的配置意义，建议关注短期利率超调后的配置机会。 ...

人民财讯12月22日电，中信证券研报认为，近期长债和超长债波动幅度加大，可能主要源于商业银行负 债端压力。压力一方面与监管考核等季节性因素有关，另一方面在央行延续货币政策框架改革背景下， 或被央行扩表工具的投放逐步对冲。考虑次年财政端压力或相对可控，在资金宽松而降息降准等宽货币 工具仍待落地的大环境下，长远来看超长债仍具一定的配置意义，建议关注短期利率超调后的配置机 会。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market liquidity remains ample, with the central bank's net injection of 162.2 billion on November 21 and 255.7 billion on November 24 [1] - The overnight funding rates showed slight fluctuations, with DR001 decreasing by 1 basis point to 1.31% and DR007 increasing by 1 basis point to 1.45% on November 27 [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Japan's Prime Minister emphasized the importance of economic stimulus for fiscal sustainability, with the current year's government bond issuance expected to be lower than last year [2] - In the U.S., September durable goods orders increased by 0.5%, surpassing expectations, while the Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated stable economic activity across most districts, with some areas reporting slight declines [2] Group 3: Domestic Debt Market - In October, various institutions reversed their bond-holding behaviors, with a notable increase in interbank certificates of deposit, while banks reduced their bond holdings [3] - The demand for bonds from commercial banks is expected to remain high in the coming months due to the widening loan-to-deposit spread [3] - The National Development Bank ETF (159650) is highlighted as a suitable investment option due to its high credit rating, large scale, and good liquidity, making it a reasonable tool for short-duration allocations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to experience low volatility and a stable trend in 2024, primarily due to weak demand and a slow improvement in household income, indicating a longer-than-expected economic structural transition [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - The central government is expected to support structural demand during the transition, with fiscal measures increasing the deficit to stimulate economic demand [1] - The reliance on issuing long-term or ultra-long-term government bonds is highlighted, as significant increases in long-term interest rates would raise interest expenses for the fiscal department [1] - The risk of a substantial rise in bond yields is considered low under the current macroeconomic environment [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - A neutral judgment suggests a potential for around 20 basis points (BP) of interest rate cuts and 50-100 BP of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in 2024 [2] - The central tendency of interest rates is expected to decrease by 20 BP from the current 1.7%-1.8%, leading to a projected range of 1.5%-1.6% for the ten-year government bond yield [2] - The volatility in the bond market is anticipated to be lower in 2024 compared to 2023, with yields gradually declining as broader market interest rates decrease [2][3] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Market Dynamics - The fiscal spending rhythm has shown significant differences year-on-year, with 2023 seeing a late surge in spending, while 2024 is expected to have a more proactive fiscal approach [3] - The effectiveness of fiscal measures in supporting the transition to a consumption-driven economy is under scrutiny, particularly regarding the implementation of consumer subsidies [3] - The bond market's performance will be closely tied to the pace of fiscal stimulus and inflation expectations, with two critical periods to monitor: significant fiscal spending and inflation trading phases [2][3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The introduction of the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) allows investors to easily access government bonds, with a duration of approximately 6.5-10 years [4] - The ETF offers high trading flexibility and is recommended for inclusion in investment portfolios during the current and upcoming favorable market conditions [4] - The bond market is seen as entering a period of low risk and high allocation value, with the ten-year government bond being particularly attractive for investors [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the value of bond allocation has gradually emerged, but the trend market still needs to wait. Most high - performing funds have warned about the short - term risks in the equity market, and convertible bonds need to wait for callback opportunities [2][4]. - High - performing pure - bond funds mainly focus on controlling drawdowns, with cautious operations. High - performing hybrid bond funds focus on technology sectors such as semiconductors and AI, and adjust positions in convertible bonds [3][69]. - High - performing convertible bond funds adjust positions based on valuation changes, and believe that convertible bond valuations will remain high, and focus on the stock market's structural opportunities [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Overview - **Newly - issued bond funds**: In Q3 2025, the number of newly - issued bond funds increased, but the share of newly - issued bond funds was still at a relatively low level in recent years. The number of newly - issued bond funds increased by 17 to 88, and the issuance scale was 146.6 billion shares, slightly higher than the same period last year but still at a low level in the past five years [6][10]. - **Bond fund scale**: The overall scale of bond funds decreased slightly, but the scale of hybrid bond funds increased significantly. The scale of bond funds decreased by 0.17 trillion to 10.74 trillion. Among them, the scale of hybrid bond funds increased by 23.84% quarter - on - quarter, while the scale of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds and short - term pure - bond funds decreased [3][13][18]. 3.2 Portfolio Management - **Fund returns**: In the context of a strong stock market and a weak bond market, the returns of bond funds declined compared to Q2. Hybrid bond funds performed strongly, while medium - and long - term pure - bond funds had negative returns. The weighted average net value of bond funds rose by 0.78% [21]. - **Asset allocation**: In Q3 2025, the proportion of public funds allocated to bonds and cash decreased, while the proportion of stock allocation increased. Open - ended bond funds significantly reduced their bond allocation by 915.233 billion, and the proportion of other types of assets increased [29][30]. - **Bond type combination**: Short - term pure - bond funds continued to increase their allocation to interest - rate bonds, medium - and long - term pure - bond funds continued to increase their allocation to credit bonds, and hybrid bond funds increased their allocation to interest - rate bonds and reduced their allocation to credit bonds and convertible bonds [37]. - **Leverage and duration**: In Q3, the leverage ratios of pure - bond funds and hybrid bond funds decreased significantly, and the durations of various bond funds were reduced to varying degrees. The weighted durations of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, short - term pure - bond funds, and hybrid bond funds decreased by 0.55 years, 0.16 years, and 0.62 years respectively [48][49]. - **Convertible bond investment**: In Q3 2025, the convertible bond positions of public funds increased, and the proportion of convertible bond positions in bond funds increased quarter - on - quarter. The positions of various rating convertible bonds increased to varying degrees, and public funds increased their positions in convertible bonds in sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals, power equipment, and computers [57][58]. - **Investor behavior**: Most financial institutions and non - financial entities reduced their convertible bond positions in Q3, but public funds increased their positions by 9.78% [61]. 3.3 Institutional Views - **Operation strategies of high - performing funds**: In Q3 2025, pure - bond assets mainly focused on controlling drawdowns, and most high - performing pure - bond and hybrid bond funds reduced bond durations. High - performing hybrid bond funds focused on technology sectors and adjusted their positions in convertible bonds [69]. - **Market outlook**: High - performing pure - bond funds believe that the allocation value of bonds has gradually emerged, but the trend market still needs to wait. High - performing hybrid bond funds are neutral and optimistic about the bond market, long - term bullish on the A - share market but cautious in the short - term, and cautious about convertible bonds [78][79].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The People's Bank of China maintained net liquidity injections, with a net injection of 187.1 billion yuan on October 31, followed by a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan on November 1, and continued net withdrawals throughout the week, totaling 357.8 billion yuan on November 2 and 492.2 billion yuan on November 3 [1] - The DR001 rate remained stable at 1.32% while the DR007 rate decreased by 3 basis points to 1.43% as of November 6 [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Signals - Federal Reserve officials indicated potential for a 50 basis point rate cut if future economic data aligns with expectations, with discussions ongoing regarding further rate cuts [2] - The U.S. Supreme Court is debating the legality of President Trump's large-scale tariffs, which could have significant implications for global economic dynamics [2] Group 3: Domestic Economic Indicators - China's official manufacturing PMI for October was reported at 49%, down from 49.8%, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.1%, down from 50.2%, indicating a contraction in both production and demand [3] - The prices of major raw materials and factory output prices have slightly decreased, suggesting that future industrial prices may depend more on demand trends [3] - The National Development Bank ETF (159650) is highlighted as a viable investment option due to its high credit rating, large scale, and good liquidity, making it suitable for short-duration allocations [3]

Core Insights - The total market ETF size reached 5.74 trillion yuan as of November 9, with bond ETFs surpassing 700 billion yuan, indicating significant growth in the bond ETF sector [1][2] - Despite bond ETFs accounting for less than 13% of the total ETF market, they have experienced explosive growth, particularly in 2024, with a notable increase in new products like credit bond ETFs and sci-tech bond ETFs contributing over 330 billion yuan to the market [2][4] ETF Market Overview - As of November 9, the total number of ETFs is 1,060, with stock ETFs totaling 3.73 trillion yuan and bond ETFs totaling 706.12 billion yuan, where stock ETFs represent nearly 65% of the total market [2] - Bond ETFs have seen a rapid increase in size, crossing the 1 billion yuan mark in May 2024 and reaching over 5 billion yuan by July 2025, with the latest figure at 700.44 billion yuan [2] Investor Composition - Approximately 85% of bond ETFs are held by institutional investors, with funds being the largest group, followed by brokerages, repo accounts, insurance companies, and banks [3] Growth Drivers - The net inflow of funds into bond ETFs exceeded 420 billion yuan this year, with specific products like the Hai Fu Tong Short-term Bond ETF and the 30-year Treasury Bond ETF seeing significant inflows [4] - New products such as credit bond ETFs and sci-tech bond ETFs have contributed over 330 billion yuan to the overall growth, with many individual ETFs exceeding 100 billion yuan in size [4][5] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent resumption of government bond trading by the central bank has improved liquidity expectations and reduced interest rate risks, encouraging investors to consider bond allocation opportunities [6][7] - The sci-tech bond ETF market is expected to grow due to its underlying assets having high credit quality, making it suitable for stable portfolio configurations amid declining yields in traditional fixed-income products [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests maintaining an optimistic outlook on the stock market amid an economic cycle recovery, while advising caution in investment allocation due to valuation changes [1] Group 1: Stock Market Outlook - The economic cycle is showing signs of recovery, which supports a positive sentiment towards the stock market [1] - Investors are encouraged to be more cautious in their allocation strategies due to changes in valuations [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - There is a focus on the non-bank sector, which is currently undervalued and experiencing rapid growth in investment performance, presenting a rebound opportunity [1] - The report highlights investment opportunities in cyclical sectors, driven by expectations of rising commodity prices in the fourth quarter [1] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - Bonds are considered to have strong allocation potential, but their valuation attractiveness remains insufficient [1] - It is recommended to wait for clearer signals from the central bank regarding a loose monetary policy before entering the bond market [1] Group 4: Commodity Market Expectations - The fourth quarter is expected to see continued strong performance in commodities, particularly in gold and non-ferrous metals, which have strong certainty [1] - For crude oil, attention should be paid to potential changes on the supply side [1]