截至2025年11月26日 10:10，国债ETF5至10年(511020)最新报价115.58元，国开债券ETF(159651)最新报 价106.67元。规模方面，国债ETF5至10年最新规模达16.31亿元。 消息面上，昨日超长利率债（20Y以上）二级交易，债基-66亿，险资+43亿，债基是主要的净卖出方； 上周四-本周二，券商自营-228亿，债基-114亿，险资+233亿，农商行+64亿。 机构指出，近一周超长利率债调整源于券商自营及债基卖出。基金赎回费新规传言时不时扰动债市，希 望早日落地，消除不确定性。新规落地将是Q4债市第二波行情的起点。当前，央行7D-3M-6M-1Y工具 边际利率已经到了1.4%-1.45%-1.50%-1.55%，11月买断式及MLF均下调了5BP，其中MLF利率较年初降 幅高达45BP，21天国库存款边际到了1.40%。 机构认为，同业存单利率迟早要下去，OMO 7D利率下调迫在眉睫。后续DR001及同业活期利率上限应 该大幅下降。 国债ETF5至10年紧密跟踪中证5-10年期国债活跃券指数(净价)，中证5-10年期国债活跃券指数从沪深交 易所或银行间市场上市的记账式附息国 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on the opportunity of the National Development Bank (NDB) and government bond yield spread compression, suggesting more active bond selections [1] - Floating rate bonds are considered relatively expensive overall, while the LPR floating rate bond 25 Agricultural Development 09 is viewed as reasonably valued [1] - In the credit bond sector, the 3-5 year duration of the "Er Yong" bond is recognized by investors for its combination of coupon and trading value, contingent on stable spreads between subordinated capital bonds and NDB bonds, as well as stable interest rates gradually compressing against government bonds [1] Group 2 - As of November 17, 2025, the 5-10 year government bond active bond index (net price) increased by 0.02%, while the government bond ETF for the same duration rose by 0.05%, with a latest price of 117.45 yuan [3] - The trading volume for the government bond ETF was active, with a turnover rate of 64.82% and a transaction value of 1.073 billion yuan, averaging 1.127 billion yuan in daily transactions over the past month [3] - The latest scale of the government bond ETF reached 1.656 billion yuan, with net inflows and outflows remaining balanced, totaling 49.3255 million yuan in the last 10 trading days [3] Group 3 - The government bond ETF has shown a net value increase of 22.13% over the past five years, ranking 30 out of 181 in the index bond fund category, placing it in the top 16.57% [3] - The fund's highest single-month return since inception was 2.58%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains reaching 10 months and a maximum increase of 5.81% [3] - The historical probability of profit over three years stands at 100%, with a monthly profit probability of 71.08% [3] Group 4 - The maximum drawdown for the government bond ETF over the past six months was 1.09%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.46% [4] - The management fee for the government bond ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [4] - The tracking error for the government bond ETF over the past two months was 0.023%, closely tracking the 5-10 year government bond active bond index [4]

Core Insights - The current environment of optimized monetary policy and bond market reforms, combined with global interest rate fluctuations and regional political factors, has led to a heightened demand for efficient and transparent bond instruments, with bond ETFs emerging as a valuable investment tool [1][2] - The bond ETF market is experiencing significant growth, with the "Three Musketeers" of Ping An Fund—corporate bond ETF, policy bank bond ETF, and treasury bond ETF—offering diverse investment options that cater to various market conditions [2][3] Group 1: Market Trends and Demand - The overall ETF market is thriving, and while bond ETFs currently have room for growth in market share, their potential is substantial due to increasing investor demand for stable investment options [2] - Ping An Fund's bond ETFs cover three core categories: credit bonds, policy bank bonds, and treasury bonds, with durations spanning long, medium, and short cycles, making them adaptable to different market environments [2][4] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The bond ETFs from Ping An Fund each have unique advantages for various investment scenarios, such as the treasury bond ETF being ideal for those anticipating interest rate declines, while the policy bank bond ETF serves liquidity management needs [5] - Investors can optimize returns through strategic combinations of the ETFs, such as pairing corporate bond ETFs with treasury bond ETFs to balance interest rate returns and credit spread enhancement [5][6] Group 3: Innovation and Future Outlook - Ping An Fund is leveraging its comprehensive financial advantages to innovate within the ETF space, developing proprietary systems for integrated management and risk control, which enhances investment efficiency [7] - The bond ETF market is expected to see further growth opportunities as market reforms deepen and investor demand for stable products increases, with Ping An Fund committed to enhancing product innovation and performance [7]

机构认为，年内来看，在短时间降息预期不强的情况下（根据浮息债与固息债的价格测算，当前市场对于短期资金宽松和LPR下调均没有预期），长端国债 利率和短端存单利率均很难有明显下行空间。年底需要关注机构配置意愿和权益上涨情况，如果配置意愿增强，国开-国债利差可能会出现压缩；而如果权 益春节行情提前启动，利率可能会跟随出现上升。 组合构建上，建议可以关注两种方案：1.选择稍低久期防守，等待利率调整5BP左右时再考虑加久期机会；2.继续维持市场中性或稍高久期，但风险敞口建 议放在利差可以压缩的活跃券位置，例如国开和超长国债。国债期货：当前整体国债期货IRR水平略高于资金利率，多数期货合约较现券偏贵，而考虑当前 国开等各品种与国债利差较高，后续可以继续关注该利差压缩策略。 资金及货币方面，本次Q3货政报告增加跨周期表述，指向后续单年出现大幅降准降息的概率降低或者说这种工具会更谨慎使用，除非有必要，否则会选择 综合运用多种货币政策工具。将"稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期"改为"稳增长、稳就业、稳预期"，说明稳增长依然是当前阶段货币政策的首要任务，但 又提到"国民经济稳中有进，实现全年预期目标有基础有支撑"，传达全年5%GD ...

Group 1 - The probability of a comprehensive reserve requirement cut is low in the current economic cycle, with the central bank likely to use a combination of liquidity management tools instead of solely relying on reserve cuts [1] - The mechanism for creating base currency has shifted from passive foreign exchange reserve injection to active central bank injection, indicating limited future potential for reserve increases [1] - Reserve cuts are viewed as a scarce tool for releasing medium to long-term liquidity, making it a valuable option compared to short-term policy rate tools [1] Group 2 - The window for interest rate cuts is expected to open between Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year, with the bond market typically pricing in expectations of monetary easing in advance [1] - It is suggested to seize opportunities before the implementation of interest rate cuts rather than speculating on the timing of the cuts, with expectations for the 10Y government bond yield to decline to 1.65%-1.7% [1] Group 3 - As of November 12, 2025, the active bond ETF for 5-10 year government bonds has seen a 0.02% increase, with a cumulative increase of 3.21% over the past year [2] - The latest size of the 5-10 year government bond ETF reached 1.656 billion, marking a six-month high, with recent inflows balancing out [3] - The 5-10 year government bond ETF has shown a net value increase of 21.99% over the past five years, ranking in the top 16.57% among index bond funds [3] Group 4 - The maximum drawdown for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past six months is 1.09%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.46% [4] - The management fee for the 5-10 year government bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5] Group 5 - The tracking error for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past month is 0.024%, closely tracking the index of active government bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years [6]

Core Viewpoint - The trading activity of government bond ETFs has increased, indicating a potential initiation of a long-term bond market trend in Q4 2025 [1] Group 1: Trading Activity - The turnover rate of government bond ETFs has risen, suggesting more clients are opting to trade these instruments [1] - As of November 11, 2025, the turnover for the 5-10 year government bond ETF was 48.29%, with a transaction volume of 800 million yuan, reflecting active market participation [1] - The average daily transaction volume for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past week was 1.342 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Fund Performance - The latest size of the 5-10 year government bond ETF reached 1.656 billion yuan, marking a six-month high [2] - Over the past five trading days, the fund attracted a total inflow of 49.3255 million yuan [2] - The net value of the 5-10 year government bond ETF has increased by 21.81% over the past five years, ranking 30th out of 181 in the index bond fund category [2] Group 3: Return Metrics - Since its inception, the highest monthly return for the 5-10 year government bond ETF was 2.58%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 10 months [2] - The fund has a historical profit probability of 100% over three years, with a monthly profit probability of 71.01% [2] Group 4: Risk Metrics - As of November 11, 2025, the maximum drawdown for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past six months was 1.09%, compared to a benchmark drawdown of 0.46% [3] Group 5: Fee Structure - The management fee for the 5-10 year government bond ETF is 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [4] Group 6: Tracking Accuracy - The tracking error for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past month was 0.025%, closely following the index of active government bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years [5]

Core Insights - The China Government Bond ETF (5-10 years) has shown a slight increase of 0.02% as of November 10, 2025, with a year-to-date growth of 3.37% [1] - The ETF has a current trading volume of 6.35 billion yuan, indicating active market participation, with an average daily trading volume of 15.92 billion yuan over the past week [1] - The fund's total size has reached 1.656 billion yuan, marking a six-month high [1] - The ETF has achieved a net value increase of 21.74% over the past five years, ranking in the top 16.57% among 181 index bond funds [1] - The fund has a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05% [2] Performance Metrics - The maximum drawdown in the last six months is 1.09%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.46% [2] - The ETF has a historical monthly return probability of 70.99% and a three-year holding profitability probability of 100% [1] - The highest single-month return since inception is 2.58%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 10 months [1] Tracking Accuracy - The tracking error for the ETF over the past month is 0.025%, indicating a close alignment with the underlying index [3] - The ETF tracks the China Government Bond Active Bond Index (5-10 years), which includes bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years [3]

Group 1 - The current bond market is expected to maintain a volatile or slightly strong trend, with a flat short-end yield curve and a steep long-end yield curve structure [1] - Short-end rates are low but unlikely to rise significantly due to central bank bond purchases and liquidity, which may compress the long-end yield spread, presenting future investment opportunities [1] - The recommendation is to maintain a neutral to slightly high duration in bond portfolios, with a focus on long-end credit and specific government bonds for potential yield spread compression [1] Group 2 - As of November 7, 2025, the 5-10 year government bond ETF index has decreased by 0.05%, while the ETF has seen a 3.38% increase over the past year [2] - The trading volume for the 5-10 year government bond ETF was active, with a turnover of 111.1% and a total transaction value of 1.839 billion yuan [2] - The latest size of the 5-10 year government bond ETF reached 1.655 billion yuan, marking a six-month high [2] Group 3 - The latest share count for the 5-10 year government bond ETF reached 14.1025 million, also a six-month high, with a net inflow of 17.6062 million yuan recently [3] - Over the past five trading days, the total net inflow was 49.3255 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The 5-10 year government bond ETF has achieved a 21.63% net value increase over the past five years, ranking in the top 17.68% among index bond funds [3] Group 4 - The maximum drawdown for the 5-10 year government bond ETF in the past six months was 1.09%, compared to a benchmark drawdown of 0.46% [4] - The management fee for the 5-10 year government bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5] Group 5 - The tracking error for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past month was 0.025%, indicating tight tracking of the underlying index [6] - The index reflects the performance of actively traded government bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years, calculated using a non-market capitalization weighted method [6]

Group 1 - The bond market is expected to have a smooth bullish phase in Q4 due to limited supply and increased allocation by banks and insurance funds [1] - Since October 13, various institutions have increased their positions in long-term bonds, while rural commercial banks have significantly reduced their holdings [1] - The central bank's resumption of government bond purchases has established a yield ceiling for bonds, leading to a growing trend of non-bank entities investing in the bond market [1] Group 2 - The scale of actively managed pure bond funds decreased by 743.3 billion, with potential adjustments to punitive redemption fees expected to be a net positive for the market [2] - MLF rates have dropped to 1.60%, indicating a potential future decrease in policy rates, with expectations for 30Y government bonds to decline by nearly 15 basis points [2] - As of November 3, 2025, the 5-10 year government bond ETF has seen a recent increase in trading activity, with a turnover of 153.59% and a total transaction volume of 2.469 billion [2] Group 3 - The 5-10 year government bond ETF reached a new high in scale at 1.608 billion, with recent inflows balancing out [3] - The ETF has shown a net value increase of 21.59% over the past five years, ranking in the top 18.78% among index bond funds [3] - Historical performance indicates a 100% probability of profit over three years, with a monthly profit probability of 70.91% [3] Group 4 - The 5-10 year government bond ETF has a Sharpe ratio of 1.05 over the past year, indicating favorable risk-adjusted returns [4] - The maximum drawdown over the past six months was 1.09%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.46% [5] - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [6] Group 5 - The tracking error for the 5-10 year government bond ETF was 0.027% over the past month, demonstrating its close alignment with the underlying index [7] - The index reflects the performance of actively traded government bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses investment strategies focusing on various government bonds, particularly highlighting opportunities in 30-year non-active bonds, 50-year bonds, and 5-10 year active bonds [1] Group 1: Investment Strategies - The article suggests monitoring the yield spread strategies for 30-year non-active bonds, 50-year bonds, and 5-10 year active bonds [1] - It recommends considering long-end credit configurations and waiting for a 5 basis point adjustment before making duration strategy decisions [1] - The 10-year government bond spread between 250016 and 250011 is currently around 5 basis points, with expectations of potential compression to 3 basis points under optimistic conditions [1] Group 2: Market Performance - As of October 30, 2025, the 5-10 year government bond active index (H21018) increased by 0.05%, while the government bond ETF for the same duration rose by 0.07%, marking three consecutive days of gains [1][2] - The 5-10 year government bond ETF reached a new high in scale at 1.589 billion yuan [3] - The ETF's latest share count reached 13.5325 million, also a six-month high, with a net inflow of 17.6132 million yuan [4] Group 3: Historical Performance - Over the past five years, the 5-10 year government bond ETF has seen a net value increase of 21.60%, ranking 34 out of 179 in index bond funds, placing it in the top 18.99% [4] - The ETF has a historical maximum monthly return of 2.58% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 10 months, with a total gain of 5.81% [4] - The ETF has a 100% probability of profitability over three years, with a monthly profitability probability of 70.87% [4] Group 4: Risk and Fees - The maximum drawdown for the ETF over the past six months was 1.09%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.46% [5] - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [6] Group 5: Tracking Accuracy - The ETF has a tracking error of 0.028% over the past month, closely following the 5-10 year government bond active index [7]