当讨论AI时，绝大多数人还在纠结"工作会不会被抢走"。但德银认为，这个视角或许有点狭窄了。 据追风交易台，德银外汇研究全球主管George Saravelos撰写的最新报告，推演了AI发展的两个极端终 局： 第一种结局是"彻底替代"。如同180多年前马克思的预言与如今马斯克的愿景：在经济学的生产要素 中，"资本"本身变成了"劳动力"本身，劳动价值归零，资本主义将变得过时。AI大规模取代人类工作， 财富和收入高度集中在少数资本所有者手中，普通人的收入和需求被削弱，经济陷入"东西很多、但没 人买得起"的困境。 马克思预测了人工智能吗？大约200年前，他写了一部关于"机器"的著作，构想了全面自动 化的场景。在这个世界里，稀缺性问题得到了解决。但是，随着劳动力价值降至零，资本主 义将变得过时，我们将过渡到一个物质极大丰富的全新世界。马克思构想的终点，与如今埃 隆·马斯克的愿景出奇地相似。 从亚当·斯密（Adam Smith）开始，所有古典经济学家都基于一个最基本的假设：资本和劳动是两个完 全独立的生产要素。无论是资本还是劳动，其价格（利率和工资）都是由它们在市场上的"相对稀缺 性"决定的。 回顾过去两百年的历史，以前 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is gradually entering a low-interest-rate environment, which typically leads to asset price bubbles; however, Japan's experience suggests that the effectiveness of low-interest policies in stabilizing the real estate market depends on the speed of interest rate cuts, financial institution support, and fiscal policy coordination [2][3]. Group 1: Causes of Low-Interest Rate Environment - The global low-interest-rate environment is influenced by factors such as declining birth rates in developed economies, aging populations, and changes in risk preferences among investors, which have led to increased demand for safe assets [5][6][8]. - In China, the transition to a low-interest-rate environment is driven by technological advancements reaching their peak and a demographic shift towards negative population growth, with a decrease of 850,000 in 2022 and projected declines in subsequent years [7][8]. Group 2: Comparison of Low-Interest Rate Policies in Japan and the U.S. - Japan's approach to stabilizing its real estate market post-bubble involved solely lowering interest rates without significant fiscal intervention, resulting in a prolonged decline in property prices from 1991 to 2013 [12][13]. - In contrast, the U.S. implemented a comprehensive strategy during the 2008 financial crisis, including aggressive interest rate cuts, government takeovers of key financial institutions, and large-scale asset purchase programs, which quickly stabilized housing prices [14][15]. Group 3: Implications for China's Real Estate Market - The effectiveness of low-interest-rate policies in China for achieving "stop falling and stabilize" in the real estate market remains uncertain, as recent rate cuts have not significantly impacted asset prices or market stability [3][10]. - The comparison with Japan and the U.S. highlights the importance of a multifaceted approach, including fiscal measures and support for financial institutions, to avoid the pitfalls experienced by Japan [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The global risk appetite indicator has rebounded from a low level to a neutral level, indicating a strong recovery in investor sentiment, although challenges remain in corporate earnings and economic data [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The global stock market risk appetite indicator has significantly improved from the deep panic level (historical 9th percentile) in early April to the neutral level (historical 55th percentile) [1]. - Investor concerns about an economic recession have decreased, with the probability of a U.S. recession dropping from a recent high of 66% to 38% [3]. - Historical data shows that in the past 38 years, there have been 32 instances where global risk appetite rebounded from panic to neutral, with only 4 instances returning to panic, suggesting a potential for further market upturns [3]. Group 2: Regional Sentiment Disparities - Different regions exhibit significant disparities in investor sentiment, with countries like India (32nd percentile), South Korea (14), Indonesia (9), and Thailand (12) showing low risk appetite, indicating potential rebound opportunities [4]. - Conversely, countries such as Singapore (97), the Philippines (83), South Africa (91), Poland (88), and Mexico (76) are nearing or entering the "euphoric" zone, suggesting potential overvaluation and caution against pullback risks [4]. Group 3: Risk-Love Indicator - The current Risk-Love Indicator shows a global score of 55, with notable scores for various regions: Japan (54), Emerging Markets (27), Asia ex-Japan (28), China (63), and others indicating varying levels of investor sentiment [5].