文/ 中国社会科学院金融研究所货币理论与货币政策研究室副主任 蔡真 中国 逐渐步入 低利率 环 境 ，一 般 理论 认为 低利 率环 境会 导致 资产 价 格泡 沫。然而日本的实践情况并非如此。对比日本和美国实践经验，低利率政 策能否促使房地产市场 "止跌回稳"取决于三大要素：降息速度、是否救 助金融机构以及财政政策的配合力度。中国的政策力度大体处于日美两者 中 间 状 态 ， 为 避 免 中 国 发 生 " 日 本 病 " ， 仍 需 多 方 政 策 加 力 ， 推 动 房 地 产"止跌回稳"。2 008年的全球金融危机以及2 020年的新冠疫情对各国经 济产生严重冲击，全球主要央行采取 除实体经济原因外，利率还受到金融层面和其他因素的影响。金融层面的原因主要来自投资者风险偏好的变化，金融危机以及全球公共卫生事件导致投资 者风险厌恶程度增加，这导致对无风险资产的需求。大量外汇储备流向美国进而压低了利率水平（ Bernanke，2015）。其他因素主要来自收入不平等， 这导致整个社会的边际消费倾向降低，进而压低了利率水平。 宽松货币 政策积极应对，这直接导致超低利率环境的出现。尽管俄乌冲突后美国进入加息周期， ...

Core Viewpoint - The global risk appetite indicator has rebounded from a low level to a neutral level, indicating a strong recovery in investor sentiment, although challenges remain in corporate earnings and economic data [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The global stock market risk appetite indicator has significantly improved from the deep panic level (historical 9th percentile) in early April to the neutral level (historical 55th percentile) [1]. - Investor concerns about an economic recession have decreased, with the probability of a U.S. recession dropping from a recent high of 66% to 38% [3]. - Historical data shows that in the past 38 years, there have been 32 instances where global risk appetite rebounded from panic to neutral, with only 4 instances returning to panic, suggesting a potential for further market upturns [3]. Group 2: Regional Sentiment Disparities - Different regions exhibit significant disparities in investor sentiment, with countries like India (32nd percentile), South Korea (14), Indonesia (9), and Thailand (12) showing low risk appetite, indicating potential rebound opportunities [4]. - Conversely, countries such as Singapore (97), the Philippines (83), South Africa (91), Poland (88), and Mexico (76) are nearing or entering the "euphoric" zone, suggesting potential overvaluation and caution against pullback risks [4]. Group 3: Risk-Love Indicator - The current Risk-Love Indicator shows a global score of 55, with notable scores for various regions: Japan (54), Emerging Markets (27), Asia ex-Japan (28), China (63), and others indicating varying levels of investor sentiment [5].