彭文生系中金公司首席经济学家 中国首席经济学家论坛副理事长 宏观视点 自2022年年底ChatGPT发布以来，美股AI龙头公司（所谓7姐妹）的股价大幅跑赢整体市场，2025年初 DeepSeek出现以来，中国的AI龙头公司（主要在港股）也大幅跑赢大市。就美国股市而言，尽管相关 企业盈利有较快增长，但风险溢价在极低水平，反映了投资者的乐观预期。股票高估值使得近期关于 AI相关资产价格泡沫的讨论多起来，本文不是如何定义泡沫和测算泡沫的技术分析，而是从资产价 格、创新与宏观经济的关系出发提供一些思考。 关键词| 人工智能 规模经济 科技创新 资产价格 研究员| 彭文生 正文 一、因与果 消化股票高估值的一个可能是利率下降，由此一些投资者把乐观的预期寄希望于美联储降息。传统的思 维是利率和风险资产价格是跷跷板的关系，无风险利率下降促使配置向风险资产倾斜，有利于股票估 值。这样的关系在当下是不是仍然成立，我们首先得解释为什么过去几年美元利率上升的环境下，股票 价格大幅上涨。 利率与股市的关系有三个可能。第一是传统的利率是因、股价是果的关系。第二个是反过来，股市是 因、利率是果。AI领衔的股市上涨是美国经济总需求的重要支 ...

Group 1 - The global broad money supply to GDP ratio reached a record 121% in Q3 2025, indicating a significant imbalance where $1.21 circulates for every $1 of wealth created [1] - In China, the M2 (broad money supply) grew by 7.9% year-on-year in May 2025, while GDP growth was only 4.5%, leading to an M2 balance of 325.78 trillion yuan, which is 2.4 times the GDP size [3] - The rapid expansion of M2 in China since 2008 has been primarily driven by bank credit, with a notable increase in infrastructure, real estate, and state-owned enterprises following the pandemic [6] Group 2 - The financing structure in China is heavily skewed towards indirect financing, with over 60% of financing through banks, compared to over 70% direct financing in the U.S., leading to a cycle of new deposits being created from loans [8] - Asset price bubbles are a direct consequence of excessive money supply, with M2 increasing approximately 155 times from 2009 to 2021, while housing prices in major cities surged over 200% [10] - The velocity of money has been declining, with M1 growth at only 2.3% in May 2025 compared to M2's 7.9%, indicating a preference for saving over spending among businesses and consumers [12] Group 3 - China's total debt to GDP ratio reached 251% by 2025, with each unit of GDP requiring 2 units of debt, contrasting with the U.S. ratio of 0.6 [14] - The efficiency of the financial system is deteriorating, with the ratio of total bank assets to GDP rising from 1.95 times in 2008 to 2.84 times in 2024, while in the U.S. it remains stable at around 0.8 [16] - Despite low interest rates, credit demand remains weak, leading to resource misallocation where "zombie" companies survive on refinancing while emerging industries struggle to secure funding [18]

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan has indicated early signs of overheating in the domestic stock market and warned that uncertainties in U.S. trade policy could lead to significant market corrections, impacting financial institutions [1] - The Nikkei 225 index reached a historical high, rising nearly 24% this year, following the election of Japan's first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi [1] - The financial system report highlighted that foreign hedge funds have increased leverage in Japanese Government Bond (JGB) trading, which may amplify market volatility [1] Group 1 - The financial system report's "heat map" indicates that stock prices are marked as "red," suggesting overheating, while other asset categories remain "green," showing no significant deviations [2] - Real estate prices are also on the rise, particularly in core urban areas, driven by increased investment demand from foreign investors [2] - The Bank of Japan maintains that the overall financial system is stable, with banks having sufficient capital and stable financing capabilities to withstand various risks [2] Group 2 - Data from the Real Estate Economic Institute shows that the average price of newly built apartments in the Tokyo metropolitan area increased by 20.4% year-on-year from April to September [3] - The Bank of Japan ended its aggressive stimulus program last year and raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% in January, believing it is close to achieving a 2% inflation target [3] - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized a cautious approach to future rate hikes due to uncertainties regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy [3]

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has indicated early signs of overheating in the Japanese stock market and warned that uncertainties in U.S. trade policy could lead to significant market corrections, impacting financial institutions [2] - The Nikkei 225 index has surged nearly 24% this year, reaching a historical high following the election of Japan's first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, who supports fiscal stimulus [2] - The BOJ's semiannual Financial System Report highlights increased leverage and participation of foreign hedge funds in Japanese Government Bonds (JGB), which may exacerbate market volatility [2][3] Market Conditions - The Financial System Report includes a "heat map" visualizing asset price imbalances, showing that stock prices are in the "red" zone, indicating overheating, while other asset categories remain stable [3] - The report emphasizes the need to closely monitor risk asset price trends, particularly in the stock market, due to the BOJ's exposure to market risks [4] - Japanese real estate prices, especially in major urban areas, are rising due to demand from foreign investors, with new apartment prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area increasing by 20.4% year-on-year from April to September [4] Financial Stability - Despite the concerns, the BOJ asserts that the overall Japanese financial system remains stable, with strong bank capital bases and stable funding sources capable of withstanding various risks [4] - The BOJ continues to monitor signals of financial imbalances that could lead to a financial crisis, such as asset price bubbles and excessive credit expansion [4] - Critics argue that the BOJ's prolonged ultra-low interest rates and weak yen have lowered the cost for foreign investors, contributing to rising asset and real estate prices [4] Monetary Policy Outlook - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the need for caution in future interest rate hikes due to uncertainties regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy [5] - A recent Reuters survey indicates that most economists expect the BOJ to raise interest rates again in the fourth quarter, potentially as early as next week [5]

Core Insights - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns that rising asset prices are a concerning issue, indicating that many assets appear to be entering bubble territory, with a potential for a 20% decline [2] - The latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey identifies the "AI stock bubble" as the largest tail risk globally for the first time [3][4] Group 1: Market Concerns - Dimon highlights several uncertainties affecting the market, including geopolitical tensions, high asset prices, and persistent inflation risks, which contribute to a risky market environment [2] - 54% of surveyed fund managers believe AI concept stocks have entered bubble territory, with a notable increase in stock allocations to an eight-month high [5][6] Group 2: Investment Trends - The cash allocation among respondents has dropped to 3.8%, indicating a peak in risk appetite, typically seen in later stages of market cycles [6] - The survey reveals that "going long on gold" is currently the most crowded trade, with 43% of investors favoring it over "going long on the tech giants" at 39% [7] Group 3: AI Investment Cycle - Major tech companies are initiating a "super investment cycle," with Google announcing a $15 billion investment in a data center in India, and Oracle planning to deploy 50,000 AMD AI chips [8] - Analysts express concerns about the disconnect between massive tech investments and the companies' current revenue and profitability, suggesting that upcoming earnings reports may reveal whether AI infrastructure spending is sustainable [8][9]

Group 1 - The core concern is the potential asset price bubble in the US, which has raised alarms among domestic investors regarding the A-share market's valuation and growth [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index have seen a cumulative increase of approximately 15% from early 2025 to September 25, while the STAR Market and ChiNext Index have surged by 45% and 75% respectively since the initiation of the US-China tariff dispute on April 8 [2][5] - The valuation metrics indicate that the Shanghai Composite Index is at the 95.84th percentile of its ten-year valuation range, suggesting a significant valuation bubble, while the CSI 300 Index is at the 85th percentile, indicating it is also relatively expensive [5][6] Group 2 - The ChiNext Index, despite its substantial price increase, shows a relatively moderate valuation at the 52.4th percentile, indicating less bubble risk compared to traditional sectors represented by the Shanghai Composite Index [6][8] - The disparity in performance between the indices is attributed to the underlying asset quality, with traditional sectors experiencing weak earnings growth, while high-tech sectors are witnessing both earnings and valuation growth [8][12] - The ten-year valuation period is deemed more relevant for A-shares due to the market's internationalization since the establishment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connects, which has altered the valuation landscape significantly [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - China is gradually entering a low-interest-rate environment, which typically leads to asset price bubbles; however, Japan's experience suggests that the effectiveness of low-interest policies in stabilizing the real estate market depends on the speed of interest rate cuts, financial institution support, and fiscal policy coordination [2][3]. Group 1: Causes of Low-Interest Rate Environment - The global low-interest-rate environment is influenced by factors such as declining birth rates in developed economies, aging populations, and changes in risk preferences among investors, which have led to increased demand for safe assets [5][6][8]. - In China, the transition to a low-interest-rate environment is driven by technological advancements reaching their peak and a demographic shift towards negative population growth, with a decrease of 850,000 in 2022 and projected declines in subsequent years [7][8]. Group 2: Comparison of Low-Interest Rate Policies in Japan and the U.S. - Japan's approach to stabilizing its real estate market post-bubble involved solely lowering interest rates without significant fiscal intervention, resulting in a prolonged decline in property prices from 1991 to 2013 [12][13]. - In contrast, the U.S. implemented a comprehensive strategy during the 2008 financial crisis, including aggressive interest rate cuts, government takeovers of key financial institutions, and large-scale asset purchase programs, which quickly stabilized housing prices [14][15]. Group 3: Implications for China's Real Estate Market - The effectiveness of low-interest-rate policies in China for achieving "stop falling and stabilize" in the real estate market remains uncertain, as recent rate cuts have not significantly impacted asset prices or market stability [3][10]. - The comparison with Japan and the U.S. highlights the importance of a multifaceted approach, including fiscal measures and support for financial institutions, to avoid the pitfalls experienced by Japan [11][12].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Market Sentiment**: The VIX index has dropped below 15, indicating increased risk appetite among investors, favoring aggressive investment strategies such as SPACs and cryptocurrencies, while the S&P 500 dividend stock index has underperformed [1][2] - **U.S. Real Estate Market**: The U.S. real estate market remains weak, with both existing and new home sales declining, and residential investment showing negative year-on-year growth [10][11] Core Insights and Arguments - **Retail Investor Activity**: Retail investors are heavily involved in speculative trading, particularly in non-profitable tech stocks, with participation rates exceeding 25%, indicating a significant increase in speculative behavior compared to 2021 [3][4] - **Financial Conditions**: Despite the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates, financial conditions have loosened to levels seen before the 2022 rate hikes, supported by strong economic performance and positive corporate earnings [6][8] - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Concerns exist regarding the potential for the Fed to continue lowering rates, which could exacerbate asset price bubbles. The M2 money supply remains above pre-pandemic levels, necessitating a cautious approach to liquidity [7][8] - **Global Market Euphoria**: Global capital markets are exhibiting euphoric behavior, which could pose risks if there are significant shocks or data changes in the future [9] Additional Important Content - **Real Estate Market Weakness**: The primary reason for the weakness in the U.S. real estate market is high interest rates, with the 30-year mortgage rate only decreasing slightly compared to historical trends, leading to a lack of significant recovery in residential investment [11][12] - **Future Demand Recovery**: A recovery in real estate demand is contingent on the 30-year mortgage rate falling to 5.5%, which is currently at 6.7%. Achieving this within the next six months is deemed unlikely without multiple rate cuts from the Fed [12] - **Upcoming Economic Events**: Key economic events to watch include the Fed's July meeting, trade negotiations, and non-farm payroll data releases, all of which could significantly impact market dynamics [14][15] - **Inflation and Tariff Concerns**: The Fed is cautious about inflation risks stemming from tariffs, which have already begun to affect prices in various sectors. The Fed's policy decisions will remain independent of political pressures, focusing instead on economic fundamentals [16][17][18]

Group 1 - The US-China tariff conflict has seen a significant reduction, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs on China, and China reciprocating with the same percentage of counter-tariffs [1] - The dialogue between economists highlights the cyclical nature of market bubbles and the historical lessons that can be learned from past financial crises [3][5] - The importance of capital markets in fostering innovation and their role as a catalyst for technological advancement is emphasized [12][13] Group 2 - The discussion on tariffs indicates that excessively high tariffs could lead to a contraction in global trade, reverting economies to localized markets [10] - The historical context of Wall Street's evolution illustrates the significance of free capital movement in driving economic vitality [8][9] - The need for a fair trading environment is underscored, with a call for the US to reassess its tariff policies in light of global economic recovery [11] Group 3 - The transition of capital markets from resource allocators to innovation catalysts is crucial for addressing current economic challenges [15] - The role of technology, such as AI and big data, in enhancing market transparency and improving investor trust is highlighted [22] - The shift in investment strategies from individual retail investors to institutional management reflects changing dynamics in capital markets [23] Group 4 - The discussion on social responsibility in capital markets emphasizes that while profit is a primary goal, broader societal impacts should also be considered [25] - The need for regulatory frameworks to ensure that capital markets operate responsibly and ethically is stressed [25]