文/ 中国社会科学院金融研究所货币理论与货币政策研究室副主任 蔡真 中国 逐渐步入 低利率 环 境 ，一 般 理论 认为 低利 率环 境会 导致 资产 价 格泡 沫。然而日本的实践情况并非如此。对比日本和美国实践经验，低利率政 策能否促使房地产市场 "止跌回稳"取决于三大要素：降息速度、是否救 助金融机构以及财政政策的配合力度。中国的政策力度大体处于日美两者 中 间 状 态 ， 为 避 免 中 国 发 生 " 日 本 病 " ， 仍 需 多 方 政 策 加 力 ， 推 动 房 地 产"止跌回稳"。2 008年的全球金融危机以及2 020年的新冠疫情对各国经 济产生严重冲击，全球主要央行采取 除实体经济原因外，利率还受到金融层面和其他因素的影响。金融层面的原因主要来自投资者风险偏好的变化，金融危机以及全球公共卫生事件导致投资 者风险厌恶程度增加，这导致对无风险资产的需求。大量外汇储备流向美国进而压低了利率水平（ Bernanke，2015）。其他因素主要来自收入不平等， 这导致整个社会的边际消费倾向降低，进而压低了利率水平。 宽松货币 政策积极应对，这直接导致超低利率环境的出现。尽管俄乌冲突后美国进入加息周期， ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Market Sentiment**: The VIX index has dropped below 15, indicating increased risk appetite among investors, favoring aggressive investment strategies such as SPACs and cryptocurrencies, while the S&P 500 dividend stock index has underperformed [1][2] - **U.S. Real Estate Market**: The U.S. real estate market remains weak, with both existing and new home sales declining, and residential investment showing negative year-on-year growth [10][11] Core Insights and Arguments - **Retail Investor Activity**: Retail investors are heavily involved in speculative trading, particularly in non-profitable tech stocks, with participation rates exceeding 25%, indicating a significant increase in speculative behavior compared to 2021 [3][4] - **Financial Conditions**: Despite the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates, financial conditions have loosened to levels seen before the 2022 rate hikes, supported by strong economic performance and positive corporate earnings [6][8] - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Concerns exist regarding the potential for the Fed to continue lowering rates, which could exacerbate asset price bubbles. The M2 money supply remains above pre-pandemic levels, necessitating a cautious approach to liquidity [7][8] - **Global Market Euphoria**: Global capital markets are exhibiting euphoric behavior, which could pose risks if there are significant shocks or data changes in the future [9] Additional Important Content - **Real Estate Market Weakness**: The primary reason for the weakness in the U.S. real estate market is high interest rates, with the 30-year mortgage rate only decreasing slightly compared to historical trends, leading to a lack of significant recovery in residential investment [11][12] - **Future Demand Recovery**: A recovery in real estate demand is contingent on the 30-year mortgage rate falling to 5.5%, which is currently at 6.7%. Achieving this within the next six months is deemed unlikely without multiple rate cuts from the Fed [12] - **Upcoming Economic Events**: Key economic events to watch include the Fed's July meeting, trade negotiations, and non-farm payroll data releases, all of which could significantly impact market dynamics [14][15] - **Inflation and Tariff Concerns**: The Fed is cautious about inflation risks stemming from tariffs, which have already begun to affect prices in various sectors. The Fed's policy decisions will remain independent of political pressures, focusing instead on economic fundamentals [16][17][18]

5月中旬，中美关税博弈终于取得阶段性进展，关税战大降温：美方取消了对中方共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反 制关税。 市场在狂热与恐慌间反复摇摆，新一轮大博弈周期已经拉开。当巨大的不确定性席卷而来，危机如此近距离地影响着每一个个人 的命运，我们应该何去何从？答案或许藏在历史里。 近日，中信书院邀请到美国著名经济史学家、《伟大的博弈》作者约翰·S.戈登、北京大学光华管理学院院长刘俏，围绕当前最受 关注的时代议题展开了一场深度金融对话。 这场跨越时空的思想对话中，戈登和刘俏院长不仅探讨了当下最值得关注的议题：特朗普的真实意图到底是什么？关税战的终局 会是怎样？普通投资者的权益该如何得到保护？他们也再次解读了《伟大的博弈》的核心启示，以及从华尔街三百年的兴衰历史 中，我们能吸取哪些跨周期的治理经验。 这场对话，不仅关乎金融市场，更关乎百年不变的人性。 下面是本场对话的内容精编： 01 每隔20年，人类就会忘记上一次泡沫的教训 主持人：近期美国股市的动荡、特朗普政府的关税政策与经济衰退风险的加剧，引发了市场对牛市结束与熊市到来的担忧。我们 应该如何理性看待当前的市场过渡期？从1825年的华尔街运河股泡沫， ...