长端美债
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中信证券:看好美股明年整体表现,对长端美债持谨慎观点
Zhong Zheng Wang· 2025-11-07 02:50
Core Viewpoint - The global economy is expected to enter a softer and clearer growth phase by 2026, with moderate growth anticipated in the US economy and a potential recovery in Eurozone domestic demand [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The US economy is projected to grow moderately [1] - Eurozone domestic demand is expected to recover [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - The overall performance of US stocks is viewed positively for the upcoming year [1] - A cautious outlook is held for long-term US Treasury bonds [1] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Insights - The US dollar is anticipated to strengthen after some fluctuations next year [1] - Attention is drawn to potential demand-driven opportunities in gold and industrial metals [1]
中信证券:全球经济可能在2026年进入更柔和而明朗的增长基调
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-07 00:24
Core Insights - The global economy is expected to enter a more moderate and clearer growth phase by 2026, with the U.S. economy projected to grow steadily, Eurozone domestic demand likely to recover, and Japan's performance anticipated to be lukewarm [1] Economic Outlook - Inflation "comfort zones" are becoming visible in major economies, with U.S. inflation expected to slightly cool after minor fluctuations, Eurozone likely to maintain a stable new normal, and Japan's apparent inflation rate expected to decline [1] - The interest rate differentials among the U.S., Eurozone, and Japan central banks may converge next year, with the new Federal Reserve chair expected to lead the future rate cut path, projecting a total cut of 50 basis points for the year [1] Market Predictions - The outlook for U.S. stocks in the coming year is positive, while a cautious stance is advised for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - The U.S. dollar is expected to strengthen after some fluctuations next year, with potential demand-driven opportunities in gold and industrial metals highlighted [1]