Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in the Shanghai Composite Index, reaching a ten-year high, with various sectors showing strong performance, particularly in liquor, semiconductors, and automotive industries [3][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3766.21, up 1.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.89% to 11926.74. The ChiNext Index increased by 0.23% to 2607.65. The STAR Market Index surged by 3.23%, marking a near two-and-a-half-year high [3][4]. - A total of 3673 stocks rose, with over a hundred hitting the daily limit up, indicating a bullish market sentiment [4]. Sector Analysis - The liquor sector saw a resurgence, with stocks like Guizhou Moutai and others experiencing significant gains, including a 8% rise in Shede Liquor and a continuous limit-up for JiuGui Liquor [8]. - The semiconductor industry rebounded strongly, with stocks like Cambrian Technology rising over 8% and several others, including Chengdu Huami and Nanchip Technology, gaining over 10% [8]. - The automotive sector also showed positive movement, with SAIC Motor hitting the limit up and other companies like Jianghuai Automobile and FAW Liberation seeing substantial increases [8]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the electronics, automotive, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverage sectors, while the pharmaceutical and biological sectors experienced net outflows [11]. - Notable net inflows included 21.21 billion into Inspur Information and 14.67 billion into ZTE Corporation, while Sichuan Changhong and Dongfang Fortune faced significant sell-offs [11]. Institutional Insights - Dongfang Securities noted signs of upward revisions in overseas inflation data, leading to market concerns about potential hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve. However, domestic liquidity remains ample, suggesting a medium to long-term upward trend [13]. - CITIC Securities commented on the liquor industry, indicating that leading companies are rapidly adjusting their channel structures, which may provide growth opportunities if consumer demand improves [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range with a downward trend and weak operation [1] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to move in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown plans, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased 40.3% month - on - month and increased 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, with prices hitting new lows. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish [3] Aluminum - In the US, consumer price inflation in June reached a five - month high, which may lead the Fed to wait and see before September [2] - As of last Thursday, the national alumina operating rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92%, with some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi under maintenance [3] - Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by its own ships, and its bauxite exports have increased 37% in 2025 [3] - As of the end of June, alumina enterprise inventories increased by 81,000 tons [3] - Last week, the aluminum processing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% [3] - On July 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas increased by 35,000 tons compared with last Thursday [3] - Since the end of June, the reduction of aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum in July, and the supply of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [3] - The decline in aluminum prices on Monday was due to the short - term impact of concentrated arrivals over the weekend [3]

Key Points - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in May, with a 95% probability of no change, due to the resilience of the US economy and limited impact from tariffs on employment and inflation [1] - Current economic data shows signs of moderate weakening but no recession indicators, with significant layoffs in April not reflected in non-farm payroll data and strong PMI figures [1] - The focus will be on how Fed Chair Powell assesses the economic situation during the press conference, as any slowdown in employment and consumption could lead to recession risks [1] Outlook - The relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve has eased, increasing the likelihood of the Fed sending positive signals [2] - Following strong non-farm payroll and PMI data, expectations for rate cuts have been delayed, and the Fed may have more room to stabilize market and economic expectations [2] - The upcoming FOMC meeting aims to provide a relatively positive signal to maintain market recovery since late April, reducing the potential for future interference from the Trump administration [2] Market Impact - The Fed's positive signals could lead to an increase in the probability of rate cuts if economic data weakens in the future [2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and short-term rates are expected to trend downward, with US stocks entering a consolidation phase after volatility decreases [2] - It is suggested to gradually invest in US stocks, particularly in small-cap growth sectors, which may have greater upside potential compared to large-cap indices like the Dow and Nasdaq [2]