截至2025年9月30日 14:34，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)强势上涨3.27%，成分股铂科新材(300811)上 涨12.90%，锡业股份(000960)上涨9.98%，华友钴业(603799)上涨9.93%，江西铜业(600362)，云南铜业 (000878)等个股跟涨。有色ETF基金(159880)上涨3.70%， 最新价报1.68元。 有色金属强势拉升，多重利好催化。消息面上，9月28日，八部门联合发文表示，推动大宗金属消费升 级，积极拓展高端铝材、铜材、镁合金应用。提升稀有金属应用水平，加快高纯镓、钨硬质合金、全固 态电池材料等高端产品应用验证。此外，受一系列生产受阻事件影响，全球铜供应紧张局势加剧，铜价 持续走高，3个月期铜9月份上涨近5%，创下自2024年同月以来的最大涨幅。 国投证券指出，目前利率期货已经定价年内美联储降息3次共75bp的预期，美联储可能忽视二次通胀的 风险去支撑就业。有色是少数能显著受益于海外通胀的行业。 有色ETF基金紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深 ...

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 霍星羽）9月30日早盘，有色金属领涨A股，中证申万有色金属指数盘中一 度上涨3.85%。个股方面，截至11:21，锡业股份涨停，江西铜业、华友钴业、永兴材料股价分别上涨 8.28%、7.45%、7.44%。 消息面上，9月28日，工业和信息化部等八部门联合印发《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》。其中提到，推动大宗金属消费升级，积极拓展高端铝材、铜材、镁合金应用。提升稀有金属应 用水平，加快高纯镓、钨硬质合金、全固态电池材料等高端产品应用验证，推进前沿材料创新应用，打 造应用场景典型案例，培育新兴市场。 该出口新政发布后钴价大涨。Wind数据显示，钴2511期货价格盘中继续上涨，截至11:05，钴价为34.4 万元/吨。受此信息提振，A股钴板块大涨，华友钴业早盘一度涨停，腾远钴业、寒锐钴业盘中最大涨幅 达8.32%、10.59%。 文：霍星羽 国投证券此前分析称，目前利率期货已经定价年内美联储降息3次共75bp的预期，美联储可能忽视二次 通胀的风险去支撑就业。有色是少数能显著受益于海外通胀的行业。 值得一提的是，能源金属板块涨幅居前。一方面，能源金属受益于固态电池 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-23 价格回调带动现货成交向好 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20750元/吨，较上一交易日变化-60元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-20元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价20710元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化20元/吨至-60元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录20700元/吨，较上一交易日变化-60元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-65元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-09-22日沪铝主力合约开于20755元/吨，收于20745元/吨，较上一交易日变化-75元/吨，最 高价达20830元/吨，最低价达到20735元/吨。全天交易日成交118717手，全天交易日持仓236067手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-22，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存63.8万吨，较上一期变化0.0吨，仓单库存70761 吨，较上一交易日变化-1198吨，LME铝库存513900吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-22SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2970元/吨，山东价格录得2940元/吨，河南价格录得 3020元/吨，广西价格录得 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" with a maintained rating [6]. Core Views - The report suggests that the metal bull market may begin due to rising overseas inflation expectations, with precious metals, industrial metals, and strategic metals being the primary beneficiaries [1]. - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve may overlook secondary inflation risks to support employment, which could lead to favorable conditions for metal prices [1]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown positive trends, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $3646.3 and $42.3 per ounce, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.9% and 2.9% [2]. - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with a downward revision of 911,000 in non-farm employment and an increase in initial jobless claims [2]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to maintain a rate cut expectation of about three times this year, which is likely to support gold prices reaching new highs [2]. - Silver has been proposed for inclusion in the U.S. USGS critical mineral list, indicating potential price resilience [2]. - Recommended stocks include Shandong Gold, Shandong International, China National Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Hunan Gold [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have increased, with LME copper closing at $10,064.5 per ton, up 2.0% from the previous week [3]. - Supply constraints are noted, particularly with Freeport Grasberg's mining operations halted due to an accident, and negotiations for the Panama copper mine are underway [3]. - Demand is expected to improve with the traditional peak season approaching, and copper social inventory has increased slightly to 144,300 tons [3]. - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, Hebei Steel Resources, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Yunnan Copper [3]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2,701 per ton, reflecting a 3.78% increase, while SHFE aluminum closed at 21,285 yuan per ton, up 2.95% [4]. - The report indicates a favorable macroeconomic environment and a reversal in fundamentals, leading to rising aluminum prices [4]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, and downstream demand is gradually recovering as the peak season approaches [4]. - Recommended stocks include Yunnan Aluminum, Zhongfu Industrial, China Hongqiao, Hongchuang Holdings, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Holdings, and China Aluminum [4]. Tin - SHFE tin closed at 273,180 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.5% [8]. - Supply remains tight due to routine maintenance at Yunnan Tin, with expectations of limited output until November [8]. - Total social inventory across three regions is reported at 9,389 tons, with a decrease of 21.8% from the year's high [8]. - Recommended stocks include Yunnan Tin, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xingye Silver Tin [8]. Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices are showing a mixed trend, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 572,500 yuan per ton and terbium oxide at 7,175,000 yuan per ton, reflecting decreases of 1.3% and 2%, respectively [9]. - The report anticipates significant tightening in supply for both light and heavy rare earths, leading to potential price increases [9]. - Recommended stocks include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, Shenghe Resources, Jinkeli Magnetic, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials [10]. - Cobalt prices are on the rise, with current prices at 273,000 yuan per ton, amid uncertainties regarding the extension of the cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo [10]. - Recommended stocks include Huayou Cobalt, Liqin Resources, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tengyuan Cobalt, Hanrui Cobalt, and Greeenme [10].

FICC日报 | 2025-09-12 国内政策预期升温，关注中国8月金融数据 市场分析 8月全球通胀上升迹象初显。全球7月的经济数据仍有韧性：中国7月按美元计出口同比增长7.2%，高于预期，主要 受去年低基数和"抢出口"效应支撑；金融数据中，货币供给超预期，但融资和贷款数据仍弱；经济数据中，投资 数据仍有明显压力，国内月频经济数据仍有压力。国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止 跌回稳态势，培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资。中共中央、国务院印发关于推动城市高质量发展的意见。 意见提出，发展组团式、网络化的现代化城市群和都市圈，持续推动城镇老旧小区改造。商务部宣布，将于9月出 台扩大服务消费的若干政策措施。财政部表示，下半年将把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，持续发力、适 时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，全力支持稳就业稳外贸。国务院同意开展北京城市副中心、苏南重点城市、 杭甬温、合肥都市圈等10个要素市场化配置综合改革试点。中国8月官方制造业PMI小幅回升至49.4，同样是价格 分项驱动景气度回升。中国8月按美元计价出口同比增长4.4%，增速较7月下降2.8个百分点，主要受高基数和关税 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The volatility in the US Treasury market has intensified, and attention should be paid to the US non - farm payroll data for August [2]. - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle, and Powell's dovish stance paves the way for a September rate cut in the US, making the path of overseas inflation rise smoother [2]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, there were initial signs of rising overseas inflation. Global economic data in July remained resilient. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, higher than expected. Domestic monthly economic data still faced pressure, with investment data under significant pressure [2]. - The A - share market on September 4 was in a volatile adjustment throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline and the STAR 50 Index falling nearly 6%. Stocks fell more than they rose, with nearly 3000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closing down [2][5]. - In the US, the ISM manufacturing index in August contracted for the sixth consecutive month, new orders improved, and the price index declined again. The US trade deficit in July widened to a four - month high [2]. Commodity Analysis - The domestic supply - side is most sensitive to the black and new energy metal sectors. Overseas inflation expectations can focus on precious metals and agricultural products [3]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worthy of attention [3]. - Agricultural products are driven by short - term tariffs and inflation expectations, but they still need signals from the fundamentals and attention to the disturbances brought by Sino - US negotiations [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. Important News - On September 4, the A - share market had more falling stocks than rising stocks. The trading volume exceeded 2.58 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.83%, and the ChiNext Index fell 4.25%. Financial stocks such as securities and banks were active [5]. - The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to quickly decide whether he has the right to impose extensive tariffs. The Supreme Court may make a ruling in the summer of 2026 [5]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that consumer spending was flat or declined, and prices rose in all districts [2]. - The US ADP employment in August increased by 54,000, lower than the market expectation of 65,000 [5]. - Trump's nominee for the Fed governor, Miran, said in the hearing that the Fed's main responsibility is to prevent economic depression and inflation, and he plans to maintain the independence of the FOMC [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in the Shanghai Composite Index, reaching a ten-year high, with various sectors showing strong performance, particularly in liquor, semiconductors, and automotive industries [3][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3766.21, up 1.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.89% to 11926.74. The ChiNext Index increased by 0.23% to 2607.65. The STAR Market Index surged by 3.23%, marking a near two-and-a-half-year high [3][4]. - A total of 3673 stocks rose, with over a hundred hitting the daily limit up, indicating a bullish market sentiment [4]. Sector Analysis - The liquor sector saw a resurgence, with stocks like Guizhou Moutai and others experiencing significant gains, including a 8% rise in Shede Liquor and a continuous limit-up for JiuGui Liquor [8]. - The semiconductor industry rebounded strongly, with stocks like Cambrian Technology rising over 8% and several others, including Chengdu Huami and Nanchip Technology, gaining over 10% [8]. - The automotive sector also showed positive movement, with SAIC Motor hitting the limit up and other companies like Jianghuai Automobile and FAW Liberation seeing substantial increases [8]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the electronics, automotive, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverage sectors, while the pharmaceutical and biological sectors experienced net outflows [11]. - Notable net inflows included 21.21 billion into Inspur Information and 14.67 billion into ZTE Corporation, while Sichuan Changhong and Dongfang Fortune faced significant sell-offs [11]. Institutional Insights - Dongfang Securities noted signs of upward revisions in overseas inflation data, leading to market concerns about potential hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve. However, domestic liquidity remains ample, suggesting a medium to long-term upward trend [13]. - CITIC Securities commented on the liquor industry, indicating that leading companies are rapidly adjusting their channel structures, which may provide growth opportunities if consumer demand improves [13].

8月20日，沪指午后震荡拉升，再创十年新高。截至收盘，沪指涨1.04%，深成指涨0.89%，创业板指涨 0.23%。科创50大涨3.23%，创近两年半新高。 盘面上看，白酒、半导体、汽车整车、AI眼镜、保险等板块涨幅居前，影视院线、医疗服务、多元金 融、软件开发等板块跌幅居前。 具体来看，白酒股再度活跃，酒鬼酒连续两日涨停，舍得酒业涨8%，金种子酒、古井贡酒、今世缘、 水井坊等跟涨。 半导体产业链午后全线反弹，寒武纪涨超8%再度突破千元关口，盛科通信20%涨停，成都华微、南芯 科技等多股涨超10%。芯原股份一度20%涨停，股价创上市首日以来新高，尾盘炸板，收涨15.52%。 汽车整车板块午后异动拉升，上汽集团涨停，江淮汽车涨7%，一汽解放涨超6%，宇通客车、东风股 份、中通汽车等跟涨。 | 全A | 涨 3673 | 平 162 | 跌 1585 | A股成 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 1 | 000001 上证指数 | 3766.21 c | 38.92 | 1.04% | | 2 | 399001 深 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range with a downward trend and weak operation [1] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to move in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown plans, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased 40.3% month - on - month and increased 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, with prices hitting new lows. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish [3] Aluminum - In the US, consumer price inflation in June reached a five - month high, which may lead the Fed to wait and see before September [2] - As of last Thursday, the national alumina operating rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92%, with some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi under maintenance [3] - Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by its own ships, and its bauxite exports have increased 37% in 2025 [3] - As of the end of June, alumina enterprise inventories increased by 81,000 tons [3] - Last week, the aluminum processing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% [3] - On July 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas increased by 35,000 tons compared with last Thursday [3] - Since the end of June, the reduction of aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum in July, and the supply of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [3] - The decline in aluminum prices on Monday was due to the short - term impact of concentrated arrivals over the weekend [3]

Key Points - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in May, with a 95% probability of no change, due to the resilience of the US economy and limited impact from tariffs on employment and inflation [1] - Current economic data shows signs of moderate weakening but no recession indicators, with significant layoffs in April not reflected in non-farm payroll data and strong PMI figures [1] - The focus will be on how Fed Chair Powell assesses the economic situation during the press conference, as any slowdown in employment and consumption could lead to recession risks [1] Outlook - The relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve has eased, increasing the likelihood of the Fed sending positive signals [2] - Following strong non-farm payroll and PMI data, expectations for rate cuts have been delayed, and the Fed may have more room to stabilize market and economic expectations [2] - The upcoming FOMC meeting aims to provide a relatively positive signal to maintain market recovery since late April, reducing the potential for future interference from the Trump administration [2] Market Impact - The Fed's positive signals could lead to an increase in the probability of rate cuts if economic data weakens in the future [2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and short-term rates are expected to trend downward, with US stocks entering a consolidation phase after volatility decreases [2] - It is suggested to gradually invest in US stocks, particularly in small-cap growth sectors, which may have greater upside potential compared to large-cap indices like the Dow and Nasdaq [2]