Core Insights - The global economy is expected to enter a more moderate and clearer growth phase by 2026, with the U.S. economy projected to grow steadily, Eurozone domestic demand likely to recover, and Japan's performance anticipated to be lukewarm [1] Economic Outlook - Inflation "comfort zones" are becoming visible in major economies, with U.S. inflation expected to slightly cool after minor fluctuations, Eurozone likely to maintain a stable new normal, and Japan's apparent inflation rate expected to decline [1] - The interest rate differentials among the U.S., Eurozone, and Japan central banks may converge next year, with the new Federal Reserve chair expected to lead the future rate cut path, projecting a total cut of 50 basis points for the year [1] Market Predictions - The outlook for U.S. stocks in the coming year is positive, while a cautious stance is advised for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - The U.S. dollar is expected to strengthen after some fluctuations next year, with potential demand-driven opportunities in gold and industrial metals highlighted [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal industry is experiencing a strong rally, driven by multiple favorable factors, including government initiatives to upgrade metal consumption and a tightening global copper supply [1] - As of September 30, 2025, the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index (399395) rose by 3.27%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Placo New Materials (300811) up 12.90%, Tin Industry Co. (000960) up 9.98%, and Huayou Cobalt (603799) up 9.93% [1] - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) increased by 3.70%, with the latest price reported at 1.68 yuan [1] Group 2 - On September 28, eight departments jointly issued a document to promote the upgrade of bulk metal consumption, actively expanding the application of high-end aluminum, copper, and magnesium alloys [1] - The global copper supply is tightening due to a series of production disruptions, leading to a nearly 5% increase in three-month copper prices in September, marking the largest rise since the same month in 2024 [1] - Guotou Securities noted that interest rate futures have priced in expectations for three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, totaling 75 basis points, indicating that the non-ferrous sector is one of the few industries that can significantly benefit from overseas inflation [1] Group 3 - The Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index (399395) selects 50 securities with outstanding scale and liquidity from the non-ferrous metal industry, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2] - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining (601899), Northern Rare Earth (600111), and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), with these ten stocks accounting for 50.35% of the total index weight [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by government policies aimed at promoting consumption upgrades and high-end applications in the industry [1][2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's non-ferrous metal index rose by 3.85% during the trading session, with notable individual stock performances including Xiyu Co. hitting the daily limit, and Jiangxi Copper, Huayou Cobalt, and Yongxing Materials increasing by 8.28%, 7.45%, and 7.44% respectively [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, released a plan for the non-ferrous metal industry aimed at enhancing the application of rare metals and accelerating the validation of high-end products such as high-purity gallium and tungsten hard alloys [1] Group 2 - The energy metals sector is leading the gains, benefiting from the rise of solid-state batteries and regulatory changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo regarding cobalt exports, which will be subject to quotas starting October 16 [1] - Following the announcement of the new export policy, cobalt prices surged, with the price reaching 344,000 yuan per ton, leading to significant increases in the A-share cobalt sector, including Huayou Cobalt hitting the daily limit and Tengyuan Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt seeing maximum increases of 8.32% and 10.59% respectively [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Long position in SHFE aluminum futures [9] Group 2: Core Views - After the interest rate cut, non - ferrous commodities generally corrected. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable, domestic consumption is recovering, and exports are good. The social inventory is at a relatively low level and is showing signs of reaching a peak. For alumina, the supply surplus is difficult to resolve, and the current price has cost support. For aluminum alloy, downstream consumption is recovering, but the supply is still excessive, and the spread repair with aluminum prices may face obstacles [6][7][8] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Aluminum Spot - On September 22, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium of East China aluminum was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,710 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changed by 5 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On September 22, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,755 yuan/ton, closed at 20,745 yuan/ton, a change of - 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,830 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,717 lots, and the position was 236,067 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of September 22, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 638,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 70,761 tons, a change of - 1,198 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 513,900 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On September 22, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,970 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,940 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,020 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,170 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,175 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On September 22, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,950 yuan/ton, closed at 2,934 yuan/ton, a change of - 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.07%. The highest price was 2,961 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,906 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 311,040 lots, and the position was 317,523 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On September 22, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 15,900 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 16,100 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,800 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,341 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 159 yuan/ton [5]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" with a maintained rating [6]. Core Views - The report suggests that the metal bull market may begin due to rising overseas inflation expectations, with precious metals, industrial metals, and strategic metals being the primary beneficiaries [1]. - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve may overlook secondary inflation risks to support employment, which could lead to favorable conditions for metal prices [1]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown positive trends, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $3646.3 and $42.3 per ounce, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.9% and 2.9% [2]. - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with a downward revision of 911,000 in non-farm employment and an increase in initial jobless claims [2]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to maintain a rate cut expectation of about three times this year, which is likely to support gold prices reaching new highs [2]. - Silver has been proposed for inclusion in the U.S. USGS critical mineral list, indicating potential price resilience [2]. - Recommended stocks include Shandong Gold, Shandong International, China National Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Hunan Gold [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have increased, with LME copper closing at $10,064.5 per ton, up 2.0% from the previous week [3]. - Supply constraints are noted, particularly with Freeport Grasberg's mining operations halted due to an accident, and negotiations for the Panama copper mine are underway [3]. - Demand is expected to improve with the traditional peak season approaching, and copper social inventory has increased slightly to 144,300 tons [3]. - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, Hebei Steel Resources, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Yunnan Copper [3]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2,701 per ton, reflecting a 3.78% increase, while SHFE aluminum closed at 21,285 yuan per ton, up 2.95% [4]. - The report indicates a favorable macroeconomic environment and a reversal in fundamentals, leading to rising aluminum prices [4]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, and downstream demand is gradually recovering as the peak season approaches [4]. - Recommended stocks include Yunnan Aluminum, Zhongfu Industrial, China Hongqiao, Hongchuang Holdings, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Holdings, and China Aluminum [4]. Tin - SHFE tin closed at 273,180 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.5% [8]. - Supply remains tight due to routine maintenance at Yunnan Tin, with expectations of limited output until November [8]. - Total social inventory across three regions is reported at 9,389 tons, with a decrease of 21.8% from the year's high [8]. - Recommended stocks include Yunnan Tin, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xingye Silver Tin [8]. Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices are showing a mixed trend, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 572,500 yuan per ton and terbium oxide at 7,175,000 yuan per ton, reflecting decreases of 1.3% and 2%, respectively [9]. - The report anticipates significant tightening in supply for both light and heavy rare earths, leading to potential price increases [9]. - Recommended stocks include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, Shenghe Resources, Jinkeli Magnetic, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials [10]. - Cobalt prices are on the rise, with current prices at 273,000 yuan per ton, amid uncertainties regarding the extension of the cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo [10]. - Recommended stocks include Huayou Cobalt, Liqin Resources, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tengyuan Cobalt, Hanrui Cobalt, and Greeenme [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic policy expectation is rising, and attention should be paid to China's financial data in August and subsequent consumption - related incremental policies [2]. - Attention should be paid to the US fundamentals and policy dynamics, and the "Big Beautiful" Act may support subsequent consumption [3]. - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle, and overseas inflation has a smoother upward path [4]. - For commodities, in the domestic market, pay attention to the black and new - energy metal sectors; overseas, focus on precious metals and agricultural products. In terms of strategy, go long on industrial products and precious metals at dips [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - In August, there were initial signs of rising global inflation. China's July export by dollar - terms increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and in August, it increased by 4.4% year - on - year with a slowdown in growth rate. The import growth rate also slowed down. The domestic economic data still faced pressure, but the official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4 [2]. - The government introduced a series of policies, including measures to stabilize the real estate market, promote service consumption, and expand effective investment. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September [2]. - On September 11, A - shares rose significantly, with the ChiNext Index soaring over 5% [2]. US Situation - The US ISM manufacturing index in August continued to contract for the sixth month, with improved new orders and a falling price index. The core CPI in August was in line with expectations and the previous value, and the main driving force for price increases came from cars and services [3]. - The US appellate court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were illegal, and the Supreme Court will quickly hear the case. Trump said that India and the US were continuing negotiations to resolve trade barriers [3]. Fed and Global Central Banks - Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting on August 22 turned dovish, paving the way for a September rate cut by the Fed. The US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate in August were worse than expected, and the Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle [4]. - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second time, and traders reduced their bets on the ECB's easing policy [4]. Commodity Analysis - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, precious metals and agricultural products can be considered due to inflation expectations [5]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved. The medium - term supply of energy is expected to be relatively loose, and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention [5]. - Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term but need fundamental signals. Precious metals have an opportunity for long - term allocation as the Fed is about to restart the rate - cut cycle [5]. Strategy - Go long on industrial products and precious metals at dips in commodity and stock index futures [6]. Important News - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on September 12 to introduce the achievements of fiscal reform and development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [2][8]. - The US Senate Banking Committee approved the nomination of Milan as a Fed governor [4][8]. - The US government appealed against the ruling that blocked the president from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook [4][8]. - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, adjusted inflation expectations, and the euro fell [8]. - South Korean President Lee Jae - myung said that the South Korean stock market was still seriously undervalued and left the capital gains tax issue to the National Assembly [4][8]. - The IEA expects a record - high oil surplus in 2026 due to OPEC+ production increases [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The volatility in the US Treasury market has intensified, and attention should be paid to the US non - farm payroll data for August [2]. - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle, and Powell's dovish stance paves the way for a September rate cut in the US, making the path of overseas inflation rise smoother [2]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, there were initial signs of rising overseas inflation. Global economic data in July remained resilient. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, higher than expected. Domestic monthly economic data still faced pressure, with investment data under significant pressure [2]. - The A - share market on September 4 was in a volatile adjustment throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline and the STAR 50 Index falling nearly 6%. Stocks fell more than they rose, with nearly 3000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closing down [2][5]. - In the US, the ISM manufacturing index in August contracted for the sixth consecutive month, new orders improved, and the price index declined again. The US trade deficit in July widened to a four - month high [2]. Commodity Analysis - The domestic supply - side is most sensitive to the black and new energy metal sectors. Overseas inflation expectations can focus on precious metals and agricultural products [3]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worthy of attention [3]. - Agricultural products are driven by short - term tariffs and inflation expectations, but they still need signals from the fundamentals and attention to the disturbances brought by Sino - US negotiations [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. Important News - On September 4, the A - share market had more falling stocks than rising stocks. The trading volume exceeded 2.58 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.83%, and the ChiNext Index fell 4.25%. Financial stocks such as securities and banks were active [5]. - The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to quickly decide whether he has the right to impose extensive tariffs. The Supreme Court may make a ruling in the summer of 2026 [5]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that consumer spending was flat or declined, and prices rose in all districts [2]. - The US ADP employment in August increased by 54,000, lower than the market expectation of 65,000 [5]. - Trump's nominee for the Fed governor, Miran, said in the hearing that the Fed's main responsibility is to prevent economic depression and inflation, and he plans to maintain the independence of the FOMC [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in the Shanghai Composite Index, reaching a ten-year high, with various sectors showing strong performance, particularly in liquor, semiconductors, and automotive industries [3][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3766.21, up 1.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.89% to 11926.74. The ChiNext Index increased by 0.23% to 2607.65. The STAR Market Index surged by 3.23%, marking a near two-and-a-half-year high [3][4]. - A total of 3673 stocks rose, with over a hundred hitting the daily limit up, indicating a bullish market sentiment [4]. Sector Analysis - The liquor sector saw a resurgence, with stocks like Guizhou Moutai and others experiencing significant gains, including a 8% rise in Shede Liquor and a continuous limit-up for JiuGui Liquor [8]. - The semiconductor industry rebounded strongly, with stocks like Cambrian Technology rising over 8% and several others, including Chengdu Huami and Nanchip Technology, gaining over 10% [8]. - The automotive sector also showed positive movement, with SAIC Motor hitting the limit up and other companies like Jianghuai Automobile and FAW Liberation seeing substantial increases [8]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the electronics, automotive, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverage sectors, while the pharmaceutical and biological sectors experienced net outflows [11]. - Notable net inflows included 21.21 billion into Inspur Information and 14.67 billion into ZTE Corporation, while Sichuan Changhong and Dongfang Fortune faced significant sell-offs [11]. Institutional Insights - Dongfang Securities noted signs of upward revisions in overseas inflation data, leading to market concerns about potential hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve. However, domestic liquidity remains ample, suggesting a medium to long-term upward trend [13]. - CITIC Securities commented on the liquor industry, indicating that leading companies are rapidly adjusting their channel structures, which may provide growth opportunities if consumer demand improves [13].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04% to close at 3766.21, marking a ten-year high [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.89% to 11926.74, while the ChiNext Index saw a smaller gain of 0.23% [1][2] - The STAR Market 50 Index surged by 3.23%, reaching a two-and-a-half-year high [1] Trading Volume - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.41 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 100 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4] Sector Performance - Sectors such as liquor, semiconductors, automotive, AI glasses, and insurance showed significant gains, while sectors like film and television, medical services, diversified finance, and software development experienced declines [6] - Notable performances included liquor stocks, with Wuliangye and Shede Liquor hitting the daily limit, and semiconductor stocks like Cambrian Technology rising over 8% [6] Fund Flow - Main funds saw net inflows into sectors like electronics, automotive, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverage, while there was a net outflow from the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors [8] - Specific stocks with net inflows included Inspur Information, ZTE Corporation, and Haiguang Information, attracting 2.12 billion yuan, 1.47 billion yuan, and 1.10 billion yuan respectively [9] - Conversely, stocks like Sichuan Changhong, Dongfang Wealth, and Huasheng Tiancheng faced net outflows of 1.54 billion yuan, 1.45 billion yuan, and 1.38 billion yuan respectively [10] Institutional Insights - Dongfang Securities noted signs of upward revision in overseas inflation data, raising concerns about potential hawkish remarks from Powell at the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, while domestic liquidity remains ample [11] - CITIC Securities highlighted that the liquor industry is rapidly bottoming out, with leading companies likely to benefit from channel adjustments and market expansion opportunities as consumption gradually improves [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range with a downward trend and weak operation [1] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to move in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown plans, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased 40.3% month - on - month and increased 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, with prices hitting new lows. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish [3] Aluminum - In the US, consumer price inflation in June reached a five - month high, which may lead the Fed to wait and see before September [2] - As of last Thursday, the national alumina operating rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92%, with some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi under maintenance [3] - Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by its own ships, and its bauxite exports have increased 37% in 2025 [3] - As of the end of June, alumina enterprise inventories increased by 81,000 tons [3] - Last week, the aluminum processing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% [3] - On July 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas increased by 35,000 tons compared with last Thursday [3] - Since the end of June, the reduction of aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum in July, and the supply of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [3] - The decline in aluminum prices on Monday was due to the short - term impact of concentrated arrivals over the weekend [3]