Group 1 - The core theme of the article revolves around the concept of "anti-involution" in the market, which is expected to lead to a new inflationary cycle following the recent policies aimed at preventing excessive competition [1][2] - The current round of capacity surplus is characterized by its unique origins, primarily driven by external factors rather than internal ones, particularly due to the pandemic's impact on supply chains and demand fluctuations [1][2] - Historical context shows that since 2008, China has experienced three rounds of capacity surplus, with the current one nearing its end, influenced by previous economic crises and government stimulus measures [3][4] Group 2 - The first round of capacity surplus occurred from 2009 to 2015, marked by a rapid recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, leading to a prolonged deflationary period due to unaddressed excess capacity [3][4] - The second round from 2016 to 2020 was initiated by supply-side reforms in response to ineffective demand-side stimuli, resulting in a more typical cycle length of 4-5 years [4][5] - The article highlights that the real estate market played a significant role in supporting traditional cyclical industries during these periods, particularly during the peak of the housing market from 2016 to 2017 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in bulk commodities, particularly polysilicon, is not solely due to the "anti-involution" discussions but is supported by macroeconomic and industrial fundamentals [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - The weakest bulk commodities this year are closely related to "coal + real estate," particularly black building materials and new energy products, which have entered a bottoming phase since June due to cost stabilization and unexpected demand [2]. - The oversupply of coal in the past two years has led to a collapse in costs for coal-related products, but recent stabilization in coal prices, driven by seasonal demand, has provided a foundation for the rebound of downstream commodities [2][3]. - Demand has exceeded expectations, with China's exports continuing to perform well despite global concerns, supported by a stable U.S. economy and the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" act, which will boost the U.S. economy in the short term [2][3]. Group 2: Supply-Side Reform and Its Implications - The recent "anti-involution" policies have acted as a catalyst for further commodity rebounds, but the current supply-side reforms differ significantly from those initiated in late 2015, which focused on substantial capacity reduction in coal and steel industries [3]. - The current supply-side reform primarily targets the new energy sector, which has a smaller impact compared to previous reforms, as it mainly involves midstream manufacturing and does not significantly control raw material demand [3][4]. - The iron ore supply is global, and an increase in production is expected next year, indicating that coal, coke, and steel industries are not the main focus of the current supply-side reforms [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The impact of the current "anti-involution" is expected to be milder, serving as a trigger rather than the main driver of the commodity rebound, which is fundamentally supported [4]. - In the short term, due to healthy fundamentals, related commodities may still have room for rebound, but the potential for "coal + real estate" related commodities is limited due to ongoing oversupply [4]. - The future performance of leading polysilicon companies will largely depend on the implementation of policies, with prices previously driven down to industry minimum costs, and any recovery will hinge on policy execution and effectiveness [4].