1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the global macro - expectation may be slightly better than 2025, but still mainly feature structured fluctuations [2][54] - Supply disturbances may continue, with the mismatch between mining and smelting reaching an extreme, and the demand side may face real - world tests after the hype. The supply side remains one of the main factors driving copper price fluctuations [2][54] - Global copper inventories will continue to accumulate, which may define the high - price copper market as a bubble [2][54] - Copper prices are in the Conjuncture bubble stage, at the end of the strategic long - position and the beginning of the strategic short - position [2][54] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情简顾 - From 2020 - 2025, copper prices showed different trends. In 2025, copper prices broke through the Conjuncture high, with Shanghai copper rising 31.11% and LME copper rising 42.3%, mainly driven by a sharp increase in the fourth quarter [6] 3.2 2026年分析逻辑 - **Supply side**: The TC long - term price dropped to 0 in 2026, indicating extreme raw material disturbances. The "bullwhip effect" in the mining raw material sector reached its peak in 2025, and 2026 may see a turn [8] - **Demand side**: The global inventory cycle is at the bottom, and it is a weak cycle. Although overseas policies and new demands such as new energy and AI provide some support, the demand side is difficult to become the dominant factor [8] - **Conclusion**: 2026 may be a turning point year. Copper prices are still in the bubble stage, and investors should be vigilant against reverse - V fluctuations [8] 3.3全球经济与资本展望 - **China**: In 2026, as the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, China is expected to improve. However, due to factors such as the real estate market, the new cycle is a weak one, and the year will still feature structured fluctuations [9][10] - **US**: 2026 is expected to be the end of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle. There may be potential changes in monetary and fiscal policies, which could bring significant fluctuations to the global market and copper prices [11][12] 3.4基本面分析 3.4.1供应端 - **Upstream mining**: Capital expenditure has been increasing since 2021. 2025 - 2026 may be a turning point for output. Although raw material supply may not improve significantly, the degree of tightness may not exceed 2025 [17][18][20] - **Mid - stream smelting**: The imbalance between raw materials and smelting capacity has led to heavy losses in the smelting sector. In 2026, there is a strong expectation of anti - involution, and TC may turn around [23][24] - **Global inventory**: Global copper inventories have been accumulating since 2024, and this trend is expected to continue in 2026 [28][29] 3.4.2消费端 - **Power sector**: Traditional power consumption remains stable, but the rapid growth in the green - power field has slowed down. New industries will provide long - term demand growth, but currently cannot replace traditional demand [36][37] - **Real estate and auto sectors**: In 2025, the auto industry was booming, while the real estate market continued to be weak. The real - estate market is in the downward phase of its cycle, providing limited support for copper demand [38][39][40] 3.4.3小结 - Supply disturbances are a core feature, and the contradiction between raw material supply and smelting capacity expansion will not change fundamentally in 2026. Demand is insufficient, and new demand cannot become the dominant factor in the short term [49] 3.5技术分析研究 - From the monthly K - line of LME copper, the bull market during the period of global prosperity - recession ended in 2011. The current bull market during the period of global recession - depression may end, and the nominal high may appear in the current upward cycle. The market in the depression period features extreme and volatile price movements [51] 3.6结论和建议 - **Research conclusion**: Similar to the core views of the report, including better global macro - expectations in 2026, continued supply disturbances, inventory accumulation, and copper prices in the bubble stage [54] - **Operation suggestions**: The high point in 2021 is the end of the strategic long - position. In the bubble stage, investors should focus on defense during the upward phase and seize opportunities during the downward phase, with key price levels of around $10,000/ton for LME copper and 80,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper [55]

Group 1 - The core theme of the article revolves around the concept of "anti-involution" in the market, which is expected to lead to a new inflationary cycle following the recent policies aimed at preventing excessive competition [1][2] - The current round of capacity surplus is characterized by its unique origins, primarily driven by external factors rather than internal ones, particularly due to the pandemic's impact on supply chains and demand fluctuations [1][2] - Historical context shows that since 2008, China has experienced three rounds of capacity surplus, with the current one nearing its end, influenced by previous economic crises and government stimulus measures [3][4] Group 2 - The first round of capacity surplus occurred from 2009 to 2015, marked by a rapid recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, leading to a prolonged deflationary period due to unaddressed excess capacity [3][4] - The second round from 2016 to 2020 was initiated by supply-side reforms in response to ineffective demand-side stimuli, resulting in a more typical cycle length of 4-5 years [4][5] - The article highlights that the real estate market played a significant role in supporting traditional cyclical industries during these periods, particularly during the peak of the housing market from 2016 to 2017 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in bulk commodities, particularly polysilicon, is not solely due to the "anti-involution" discussions but is supported by macroeconomic and industrial fundamentals [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - The weakest bulk commodities this year are closely related to "coal + real estate," particularly black building materials and new energy products, which have entered a bottoming phase since June due to cost stabilization and unexpected demand [2]. - The oversupply of coal in the past two years has led to a collapse in costs for coal-related products, but recent stabilization in coal prices, driven by seasonal demand, has provided a foundation for the rebound of downstream commodities [2][3]. - Demand has exceeded expectations, with China's exports continuing to perform well despite global concerns, supported by a stable U.S. economy and the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" act, which will boost the U.S. economy in the short term [2][3]. Group 2: Supply-Side Reform and Its Implications - The recent "anti-involution" policies have acted as a catalyst for further commodity rebounds, but the current supply-side reforms differ significantly from those initiated in late 2015, which focused on substantial capacity reduction in coal and steel industries [3]. - The current supply-side reform primarily targets the new energy sector, which has a smaller impact compared to previous reforms, as it mainly involves midstream manufacturing and does not significantly control raw material demand [3][4]. - The iron ore supply is global, and an increase in production is expected next year, indicating that coal, coke, and steel industries are not the main focus of the current supply-side reforms [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The impact of the current "anti-involution" is expected to be milder, serving as a trigger rather than the main driver of the commodity rebound, which is fundamentally supported [4]. - In the short term, due to healthy fundamentals, related commodities may still have room for rebound, but the potential for "coal + real estate" related commodities is limited due to ongoing oversupply [4]. - The future performance of leading polysilicon companies will largely depend on the implementation of policies, with prices previously driven down to industry minimum costs, and any recovery will hinge on policy execution and effectiveness [4].