黄金价格突破每盎司4000美元，黄金今年的强势得益于美元汇率持续走弱推升其计价优势，叠加地缘政治 冲突引发的避险需求激增，以及主要经济体释放的降息预期。 不仅各国央行持续增持以优化外汇储备结构，散户投资者也通过ETF、实物黄金等渠道纷纷入场，进一步 放大了价格涨势。 纽伯格伯曼集团多元资产团队副投资经理丽贝卡・麦克米伦指出，2022至2024年间，全球各国央行年均黄 金购买量超过1000吨，这一数字较2012至2021年的十年平均值翻了一倍多，其中中国已跃居全球最大黄金 买家。 2022年对俄制裁事件多国冻结俄罗斯的美元储备资产，暴露了"美元中心化储备体系"的脆弱性，这让更多 国家意识到"降低美元依赖、增持黄金"的战略必要性。 桥水基金创始人瑞・达利欧表示建议投资者"将约15%的资产配置于黄金"，既能发挥黄金的避险作用，又 不会因黄金"无息持有"的特性拖累整体投资收益。 自称"黄金不可知论者"的基金经理克里斯托弗・克鲁登警告，那些为分散投资组合风险而盲目购入黄金的 投资者或许正面临未被察觉的潜在风险。1979年他刚入行时，金价曾触及每盎司850美元的历史高点，但 仅仅三年后，价格便暴跌65%至70%。 米拉博 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate and rise. The main drivers for the long - term bull market are the change in international order and the strategic allocation value is high. The price range is [766 - 787] [1]. - Silver is likely to have range - bound oscillations. The global economic demand may decline in 2025, and it is greatly affected by gold and base metals. The price range is [8200 - 8390] [1]. - Copper is predicted to rebound. In the short - term, it should pay attention to the pressure level at 79,000. In the long - term, it remains optimistic about copper. The short - term price range for SHFE copper is [78000, 79500] [1]. - Zinc is expected to rebound. In the short - term, the rebound space may be limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, it has an oversupply situation. The price range for SHFE zinc is [22400, 23000] [1]. - Lead is under pressure. The supply is expected to tighten slightly, but the downstream procurement is cautious, so the price rebound is under pressure. The price range is [16300 - 17000] [1]. - Tin is predicted to rebound. Overseas tin ore supply is gradually recovering, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The price range is [263000 - 269000] [1]. - Aluminum is facing pressure in its rebound. The alumina price is falling, and the downstream demand is differentiating. The price range is [19800 - 20300] [1]. - Nickel is under pressure. The cost support is weakening, and the terminal demand is weakening. The price range is [120000 - 125000] [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook. The supply and demand surplus concern remains. The price range is [7500 - 7780] [1]. - Lithium carbonate is bearish. The supply surplus situation has not been reversed. The price range is [59000 - 61000] [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - The progress of the US - EU negotiation is repeated, and geopolitical issues in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine continue, providing support for gold [2]. Basic Logic - The US extended the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on EU goods to July 9, boosting market confidence. Japan's inflation has rebounded, and the UK's retail sales have increased significantly. The cease - fire in the Middle East is uncertain. The long - term trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - loose fiscal and monetary policies will support gold [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Short - term long positions can be arranged in the gold market, and control the position for long - term investment. Silver may continue to have range - bound oscillations in the short - term [8200, 8390] [4]. Copper Market Review - Overnight, copper opened lower and then rose, with an oscillatory recovery [6]. Industrial Logic - Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and the processing fee of copper concentrate is - 44.25 dollars/ton. The uncertainty of Trump's copper import tariff policy is reducing copper inventories outside the US. The demand for green copper in power, automotive, and home appliance sectors is strong, offsetting the weak demand in traditional sectors [6]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, copper is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the pressure level at 79,000. Long positions should be held cautiously. In the long - term, it is optimistic about copper. The short - term price range for SHFE copper is [78000, 79500], and for LME copper is [9400, 9800] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc Market Review - Zinc rose by more than 2% overnight [8]. Industrial Logic - In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be loose. Recently, the unexpected extended maintenance of a smelter in South China and the maintenance of a mine in the Southwest have worried the market about supply disruptions. The downstream demand is weakening [8]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, zinc rebounds due to mine and smelter maintenance, but the rebound space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, short positions can be taken on rebounds. The price range for SHFE zinc is [22400, 23000], and for LME zinc is [2680, 2780] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum Market Review - The aluminum price rebounds under pressure, and the alumina price is falling [10]. Industrial Logic - The overseas macro - trade environment has eased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand is differentiating. The supply of bauxite is high, and the alumina supply surplus situation continues [11]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE aluminum, focusing on inventory changes. The price range for the main contract is [19800 - 20500]. Alumina is operating in a low - level range [11]. Nickel Market Review - The nickel price is under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [12]. Industrial Logic - The overseas macro - environment has eased. The increase in nickel ore shipments from the Philippines and the price cut in Indonesia have weakened the cost support. The domestic refined nickel production is increasing, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The stainless steel inventory has decreased, but the overall supply - demand surplus pressure still exists [13]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focusing on downstream consumption. The price range for the main nickel contract is [120000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2507 opened lower and fell, breaking through the 60,000 mark [14]. Industrial Logic - The supply surplus situation continues. The upstream smelter has high inventory pressure, and the demand is weak. The cost of lithium ore is still falling, and the negative feedback cycle continues [15]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold short positions. The price range is [59000 - 61000] [15].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 俄乌谈判再次失败，国内央行大举进口黄金，黄金价格短期快速走高。本轮大 | | | 震荡冲高 | 牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变，长期看，黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑 | | | | 途中，战略配置价值高。【755-780】 | | 白银 | 区间调整 | 逻辑不变，国内弱现实，各国财政关税对冲关税带来的负面影响，品种特性上， 白银金融属性和商品属性比较敏感，受黄金和基本金属影响较大，黄金大涨刺 | | | | 激白银重心上移，不过操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8130-8350】 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 海外地缘风险激增，美元指数回落，COMEX 铜持续抽干全球铜库存，短期铜震荡 回升，警惕高铜价对需求抑制作用逐渐显现，建议多单逐渐高位止盈，中长期依旧 | | | | 看好铜。沪铜关注区间【78000，79000】 | | | | 宏观和板块积极带动锌止跌反弹，但消费淡季开启，锌上方空间有限，建议前 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 期空单继续持有，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌 ...