1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig sector is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg sector is neutral [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the pig market, the current supply - demand imbalance persists, with supply exceeding demand, and pig prices are expected to remain under pressure. In the egg market, the current price increase is driven by pre - holiday stocking, and after the stocking sentiment fades, the market may return to a volatile adjustment pattern [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2605 contract yesterday was 9,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 240.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.35%. [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of outer three - yuan live hogs was 9.85 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 10.21 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.10 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 9.66 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous trading day. The national average wholesale price of pork on March 23 was 16.01 yuan/kg, a 0.2% increase from last Friday [1] Market Analysis - At the beginning of the week, the spot price of live hogs continued the weak trend of the weekend, with the decline rate increasing and the decline in the north stronger than in the south. Piglet prices also continued to decline. Breeders generally have expectations of reducing weight and selling, and the short - term live hog supply is expected to increase month - on - month. The overall supply - demand pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and pig prices are expected to be under pressure [2] Strategy - The strategy for the pig market is to be cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2605 contract yesterday was 3,443 yuan/500 kg, a change of + 34.00 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 1.00%. [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.11 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.07 from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.25 yuan/jin, with no change; in Hebei, it was 3.16 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.09. On March 23, the national production - link inventory was 0.81 days, a decrease of 0.08 days from the previous day, a decrease of 8.99%, and the circulation - link inventory remained unchanged [3] Market Analysis - The spot price of eggs continued to be strong, mainly driven by pre - Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking. However, the overall egg supply is still abundant, and after the stocking sentiment fades, the egg price may lack upward momentum and return to a volatile adjustment pattern [4][5] Strategy - The strategy for the egg market is neutral [6]

Core Viewpoint - The pork price is experiencing a downward trend, reaching new lows, with concerns about potentially falling below 13 yuan/kg. However, there is a belief that prices may stabilize by the end of September if the market can withstand the mid-month pressures [2]. Group 1: Supply Risks - The official target is to reduce the breeding pig capacity to below 39 million heads by the end of the year, while the breeding sow capacity was still at 40.42 million heads as of the end of July, indicating a tight timeline for adjustments [4]. - The concentration of the pig farming industry has increased significantly after previous capacity reductions, making the actions of leading companies more impactful on the market. Typically, there is a tightening of supply at the beginning and end of the month, with increased supply expected mid-month, leading to potential price declines [5]. - There is a risk of supply pressure due to the ongoing production capacity adjustments and the need to manage the market effectively [2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Although there has been a slight improvement in pork consumption with the cooling weather, it is still far from the expected peak consumption season, indicating that demand has not significantly rebounded [6]. - The increase in supply from large enterprises, coupled with sluggish demand, poses a significant challenge for small and medium-sized farmers, potentially pushing some out of the market [6]. - The upcoming double festival at the end of the month is expected to provide a temporary boost to market consumption, which may influence market sentiment positively [6]. Group 3: Market Adjustments - The pace of reducing the weight of pigs for slaughter is slowing down, which means that the market supply of pork may decrease, alleviating some supply pressure [8]. - There has been a rise in secondary fattening practices, which, despite official controls, are expected to increase as the consumption season approaches, further tightening the supply pressure [9]. - With a reduction in supply and an anticipated increase in demand, there is a possibility for pork prices to stabilize or even see a slight increase, especially as the peak consumption season approaches in October [11].