Core Points - The EU faces a "collective action problem," which hinders trade negotiations with the US [1][6] - The US-EU trade talks are in the final stages, with leaders set to meet for crucial discussions [1][3] - A potential framework trade agreement is estimated to have a 50% chance of being reached, with the EU eager to finalize it [1][3] Group 1: Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The US and EU are engaged in "intensive negotiations" on technical and political levels, aiming for a balanced outcome that provides stability for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic [3] - The potential agreement may include a 15% general tariff on EU goods entering the US, similar to recent agreements with Japan [3][4] - Trump's administration maintains a firm stance on a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, indicating limited flexibility in this area [3][4] Group 2: Differences Between US-EU and US-Japan Agreements - The economic relationship between the US and EU is characterized by lower complementarity and higher competition compared to the US-Japan relationship [4] - Japan's political and military dependency on the US contrasts with the EU's higher degree of autonomy, particularly for France and Germany [4] - The EU's current capital shortage complicates its ability to negotiate large-scale direct investments as Japan did [4] Group 3: Challenges in Specific Sectors - The EU's stringent food standards make negotiations in agricultural imports more challenging compared to Japan's concessions on agricultural products [5] - The EU may allow limited imports of genetically modified agricultural products, but this is expected to only address a fraction of the trade volume [5] - The aerospace sector could be a potential breakthrough area, although Airbus's strong position in Europe complicates US Boeing's procurement efforts [5] Group 4: Political Considerations and Internal EU Dynamics - The EU's collective decision-making process complicates negotiations, as the European Commission must represent all member states [6] - Recent meetings between German and French leaders indicate a shift towards a unified stance on trade negotiations with the US [7] - Germany's reevaluation of its economic model in light of geopolitical tensions may lead to a more assertive position in trade discussions [7]

欧美贸易谈判最新进展——美财长发话了。 周二，美国财政部长贝森特在利雅得举行的沙特-美国投资论坛上，被问及关税谈判进展时表示，欧盟 面临一个"集体行动问题"，这在一定程度上阻碍了贸易谈判的进展。 简单来说，"集体行动问题"指的是，欧盟内部各个国家的利益并不完全一致。贝森特举例称，意大利和 法国的需求不一致，这种分歧让谈判变得更复杂。 贝森特认为，尽管如此，最终美欧之间会达成一个满意的结论，但这个过程注定会比与其他国家的谈判 要慢得多。 特朗普总统长期对欧盟颇有不满，他曾表示，这个联盟就是为了坑美国而成立的，在此背景下，欧盟成 为达成协议的优先对象的可能性很低。 不过，虽然如此，美国和欧盟之间的贸易规模依然庞大。国际货币基金组织数据显示，去年欧美双边贸 易总额接近1万亿美元，且欧盟在这笔交易中占据了明显的优势，欧盟对美国的贸易顺差达到了2500亿 美元。 贝森特为什么这么说？ 有分析指出，贝森特提到"集体行动问题"，似乎是想通过制造欧盟内部分歧来推动谈判进展，但从目前 的情况来看，欧盟内部并没有出现明显裂痕。德国总理梅尔茨与特朗普的电话沟通中就明确表示，欧洲 在贸易问题上不能分裂。 在欧盟内部，尽管整体战略保持 ...