丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨银行 [Table_Title] 关注零售贷款资产质量趋势 ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 46 周 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周市场整体下跌，风险偏好明显回落，银行股小幅回调，但明显跑赢大盘及创业板指数，体 现防御属性。四季度以来市场调整过程中国有行表现最突出，率先创新高，同时中期分红时点 提前至 12 月，推动配置盘加仓。个股层面，国有行呈现轮动式上涨，前期领涨的农业银行本周 调整，但中国银行 A 股大涨，建设银行 A 股、交通银行 A 股等也涨幅靠前，南京银行大股东法 巴银行再度增持，推动涨幅领先。四季度继续看好银行股系统性估值修复，红利配置盘持续加 仓，同时受益市场风险偏好回落。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 关注零售贷款资产质量趋势 2] ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 46 周 [Tab ...

Core Insights - The upcoming "Double Eleven" shopping season is expected to boost consumer demand, with banks reporting positive signals in their Q3 financial results, particularly in personal consumption loans driven by government subsidy policies [1][2] - Banks are focusing on risk management while increasing personal consumption loan offerings, indicating a commitment to stable retail business growth [1][5] Personal Consumption Loan Growth - The personal consumption loan subsidy policy is a key initiative by the government to stimulate domestic demand and improve living standards, implemented in August [2] - Major banks like ICBC and Agricultural Bank of China have reported significant increases in personal consumption loans, with ICBC's debit card transactions reaching 13.8 trillion yuan and credit card transactions at 1.4 trillion yuan [2] - Agricultural Bank of China saw a growth of 21.9 billion yuan in personal consumption loans since the subsidy policy's implementation, with a total loan issuance of 88.1 billion yuan [2] Bank-Specific Performance - China Bank reported a 26.11% increase in personal consumption loan balance by the end of September, with debit card transactions exceeding 6 trillion yuan [3] - Construction Bank's personal consumption loan balance reached 645.8 billion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 117.7 billion yuan [4] - Postal Savings Bank has initiated actions to support consumption, leading to a quarter-on-quarter increase in non-housing consumption loans [4] Risk Management in Retail Loans - Risk management remains a priority for banks as they expand retail loan offerings, with a focus on maintaining asset quality [5] - Construction Bank has implemented measures to enhance risk management and ensure stable asset quality in retail loans [6] - Agricultural Bank reported a non-performing loan ratio of 1.27%, a slight decrease from the beginning of the year, indicating effective risk management practices [6] Future Growth Potential - Banks anticipate continued growth in the personal loan market, driven by supportive government policies and rising consumer spending capacity [7] - Agricultural Bank plans to increase loan issuance while ensuring compliance and effective policy implementation [7] - China Merchants Bank aims to maintain its market share in retail loans despite a decrease in demand, emphasizing the importance of retail assets [7] - Minsheng Bank is prioritizing retail finance as a long-term strategic focus, reporting a 5.38% increase in retail customers [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 was impacted by fluctuations in the bond market, leading to a decline in both revenue and net profit growth rates. Revenue decreased by 13.1% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 5.6% [3][11] - Despite the challenges, key operational metrics showed significant improvement, including a narrowing decline in net interest margin and improved asset quality in retail loans. The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.83%, down 18 basis points year-on-year, but this was a significant improvement compared to the 51 basis points decline for the entire year of 2024 [4][11] - Retail loan non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improved to 1.32%, a decrease of 7 basis points from the end of 2024, indicating effective risk management and asset quality improvement [5][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue growth rate was -13.1%, a decline of 2.1 percentage points compared to 2024, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year and a 32.7% year-on-year drop in non-interest income [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than revenue due to reduced provisioning, with a provision amount of 7.43 billion yuan, which was 1.97 billion yuan less than the previous year [3] Asset Quality - The retail loan NPL ratio improved to 1.32%, with personal housing loan NPLs decreasing for two consecutive quarters and credit card loan NPLs declining for four consecutive quarters. However, corporate loan NPLs increased to 0.79%, up 9 basis points from the end of 2024 [5] - The overall attention rate improved to 1.78%, down 15 basis points from the end of 2024, indicating a positive trend in asset quality management [5] Loan Growth - In Q1 2025, total loan issuance was 37.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 37 billion yuan year-on-year. Corporate loans amounted to 75.7 billion yuan, down 98.4 billion yuan year-on-year, while retail loans continued to shrink, with a balance decrease of 38.1 billion yuan [6] Financial Data and Valuation - As of April 18, 2025, the closing price was 11.18 yuan, with a total share capital of 19,405.92 million shares and a market capitalization of 216,954.29 million yuan. The book value per share was 22.48 yuan, and the asset-liability ratio stood at 91.24% [7][11] - The company is expected to stabilize and recover in 2025, with projected revenue growth rates of -5.5%, 3.7%, and 7.0% for 2025-2027, and net profit growth rates of 2.1%, 4.6%, and 7.8% respectively [11]