丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨银行 [Table_Title] 关注零售贷款资产质量趋势 ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 46 周 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周市场整体下跌，风险偏好明显回落，银行股小幅回调，但明显跑赢大盘及创业板指数，体 现防御属性。四季度以来市场调整过程中国有行表现最突出，率先创新高，同时中期分红时点 提前至 12 月，推动配置盘加仓。个股层面，国有行呈现轮动式上涨，前期领涨的农业银行本周 调整，但中国银行 A 股大涨，建设银行 A 股、交通银行 A 股等也涨幅靠前，南京银行大股东法 巴银行再度增持，推动涨幅领先。四季度继续看好银行股系统性估值修复，红利配置盘持续加 仓，同时受益市场风险偏好回落。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 关注零售贷款资产质量趋势 2] ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 46 周 [Tab ...

第一财经此前曾报道，据不完全梳理，包括农业银行、建设银行、交通银行等多家银行，近期均通过线 上平台大量直接销售房产。在京东资产拍卖平台或阿里资产拍卖平台上，部分银行在售房产标的已超千 套，处置速度明显加快。（详见 《低价"银行直供房"激增,有房产价格低于市价25%》 ）。这一现象 已在业内引发广泛关注。 银行为何加速推出直供房源？背后是多重因素的叠加推动。一方面，随着部分经营性贷款陆续到期，抵 押房产因当前房地产市场下行而面临价值重估，出现评估价低于原贷款金额的"价值倒挂"现象，导致部 分企业与个人面临续贷困难，违约房产随之进入处置流程；另一方面，银行自身也面临资本消耗、盈利 补充与房价预期下行的压力，加速处置抵债资产成为其优化资产负债表、释放资本空间的重要选择。 展望未来，业内普遍认为，目前一、二线城市涉房风险整体可控，但部分区域仍面临风险出清压力。在 此背景下，银行正积极拓展资产证券化等多元化处置渠道，探索存量房产的有效盘活路径，力求在稳步 化解金融风险的同时，实现资产价值的最大化回收。 本文字数：3236，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 王方然 2025.11. 16 有何原因？ 多位房地产业内 ...

展望未来，业内普遍认为，目前一、二线城市涉房风险整体可控，但部分区域仍面临风险出清压力。在此背景下，银 行正积极拓展资产证券化等多元化处置渠道，探索存量房产的有效盘活路径，力求在稳步化解金融风险的同时，实现 资产价值的最大化回收。 有何原因？ 多位房地产业内人士向第一财经表示，银行通过线上平台直接出售房产的"直供"模式近期显著增加，尤其是在部分区 域性银行中更为普遍，其标的物多为"抵债房产"，且这些地区的房价下行压力更为明显。有银行人士也证实了直供房 挂网数量逐年走高的趋势。需要说明的是，由于资产交易平台的统计口径往往包含了已结束、已撤销的场次以及同一 资产的重复挂牌，导致表面数据被高估。业内人士指出，若剔除这些因素，当前银行直供房在整体二手房市场规模中 的占比仍然有限。 那么，为何银行直供房数量短期内出现较快增长？ 部分业内人士认为，这与续贷风险有关。一位券商房地产首席分析师对第一财经表示，此前银行为支持实体经济，向 部分中小企业发放了以房产为抵押的经营贷款。如今三年周期陆续到期，抵押房产面临重新评估。受当前房地产市场 下行影响，这些房产估值普遍低于贷款发放时的估值，导致部分借款人出现资金缺口、难以按期还款 ...

Core Viewpoint - The revenue and profit decline of Ping An Bank continues to narrow in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a potential stabilization in financial performance. Revenue and Profit Summary - For the first three quarters, the operating revenue decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025. In Q3, the revenue decline was 9.2%, down 2.2 percentage points from Q2, primarily due to rising bond market interest rates impacting non-interest income [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a 0.4 percentage point reduction compared to the first half of 2025. In Q3, the net profit decline was 2.8%, down 1.2 percentage points from Q2 [1] Retail and Corporate Loan Performance - Retail loans showed positive growth, with a loan growth rate of 1% as of the end of Q3, marking the first positive growth since June 2024. Retail loans increased by 3.21 billion yuan in Q3, the first positive growth in the second half of 2023 [1] - In the corporate sector, the bank continued to reduce low-yield bill loans, which decreased by 18.38 billion yuan in Q3, while increasing general corporate loans by 24.42 billion yuan [1] Net Interest Margin and Income - The net interest margin for Q3 was 1.79%, an increase of 3 basis points from Q2. This stabilization in net interest margin led to a year-on-year decline in net interest income of 6%, which was a narrower decline compared to Q2 [2] - The cost of interest-bearing liabilities decreased significantly, with a cost rate of 1.61% in Q3, down 13 basis points from Q2 [2] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.05% at the end of Q3, with the attention rate decreasing by 2 basis points to 1.74%. The provision coverage ratio was 229.6%, down 8.9 percentage points from Q2 [4] - Retail asset quality improved, with the retail NPL ratio at 1.24%, a decrease of 3 basis points from Q2. The improvement was attributed to better asset quality in credit card and personal consumption loans [4] - The corporate NPL ratio increased to 0.86%, attributed to the reduction of low-risk bill business and exposure to risks in certain industries, particularly in real estate [4] Future Outlook and Profit Forecast - The revenue and profit decline has been narrowing since Q2 2025, with retail adjustments nearing completion. The reduction of high-risk retail loans is expected to conclude, and the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies is anticipated to boost loan growth [5] - The forecast for operating revenue growth for 2025-2027 is -5.5%, 3.7%, and 7.0%, respectively, while net profit growth is projected at 0.3%, 4.6%, and 7.8% [6][7]

Core Insights - The Chinese banking industry is at a crossroads of new and old risks, with a focus on the evolving asset quality and the impact of retail loan defaults [1][6] - The report from Guosen Securities highlights a 15-year trend of bad debt clearance across various sectors, with a notable shift from corporate loans to retail loans in recent years [1][2] Group 1: Historical Context and Risk Management - The report identifies 2011 as the starting point of the current asset quality cycle, marked by a liquidity crisis in Wenzhou and a peak non-performing loan (NPL) rate of 4.41% [2] - Systemic pressure primarily arose from the manufacturing and wholesale retail sectors, with NPL rates peaking at 7.79% in 2016 and 6.12% in 2018, respectively [2] - Banks proactively reduced their exposure to these sectors and shifted credit resources towards personal loans, particularly housing loans, effectively mitigating corporate asset quality deterioration [2] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Analysis - The real estate sector has become the new focal point for asset quality issues, with corporate loan NPL rates rising from below 1.4% to a peak of 4.42% in 2023, before showing signs of decline [3] - The report suggests that the peak of NPL generation in the real estate sector has passed, largely due to banks' preemptive risk management strategies [3] - Despite the high NPL rates, the overall impact on banks' asset quality is considered manageable due to the relatively low proportion of real estate loans in the total loan portfolio [3] Group 3: Retail Loan Risks - As corporate loan risks recede, retail loan defaults are becoming a central concern, with rising NPL rates across personal housing, consumption, credit card, and business loans [4][5] - The NPL rate for personal housing loans has been increasing since 2021, influenced by adjustments in the real estate market, with no clear signs of stabilization [5] - The rapid rise in NPL rates for personal business loans and a slight rebound in consumption loans are attributed to previous aggressive lending practices and rising household leverage [5] Group 4: Future Outlook and Industry Stability - The report indicates that 2023 marks the end of the current performance downturn cycle, with expectations for improvement in the industry’s fundamentals in 2024 [5] - The 15-year history of risk management in the Chinese banking sector demonstrates a mechanism for maintaining financial stability through phased bad debt exposure and dynamic credit structure adjustments [6] - However, the sustainability of this risk management model is questioned, particularly as banks face rising retail loan risks and the limitations of excess provisions [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The total loan scale of 42 listed banks reached 184 trillion yuan by June 2025, with corporate loans accounting for 121 trillion yuan (65.74%) and retail loans at 63 trillion yuan (34.26%) [16][19] - The proportion of retail loans has decreased, with corporate loans providing the main incremental growth. Since 2020, the share of retail loans in total loans has dropped from 41.22% to 34.26%, while corporate loans increased from 58.78% to 65.74%, achieving a credit increment of 78% during this period [16][17] - The decline in retail loans is attributed to weak real estate and consumer demand, with personal housing loans decreasing from 20.18% to 14.11% and credit card loans from 4.96% to 3.39% from 2020 to June 2025 [17][18] - Corporate loans have shifted focus from real estate to broad infrastructure, with corporate real estate loans accounting for only 5% of total loans by June 2025, down from 1.39 percentage points since 2020. Broad infrastructure loans have increased by 5.20 percentage points [18] Summary by Sections Overall Credit Structure Changes - As of June 2025, the total loan scale of listed banks is 184 trillion yuan, with corporate loans at 121 trillion yuan (65.74%) and retail loans at 63 trillion yuan (34.26%) [16] - The shift in credit structure aligns with national strategic guidance and economic cycles, with corporate loans expanding at a much faster rate than retail loans [16][17] Changes in Retail Loan Structure - Personal housing loans and credit card loans have seen a decline in their proportions due to weak real estate and consumer demand [17] - The share of personal housing loans decreased from 20.18% to 14.11%, while credit card loans fell from 4.96% to 3.39% from 2020 to June 2025 [17] Changes in Corporate Loan Structure - Corporate loans have become the core focus for banks during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a cautious approach to real estate lending [18] - The proportion of corporate real estate loans has decreased to 5%, while broad infrastructure loans have increased significantly [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking industry, expecting improvements in the fundamental outlook for the next year [2][105]. Core Insights - The stability of asset quality in the banking sector is attributed to the gradual exposure and clearing of non-performing loans over the past 15 years, with different sectors experiencing issues at different times [1][12]. - Banks have actively adjusted their loan structures to mitigate risks, reducing exposure to sectors with rising non-performing loans [1][66]. - The impact of non-performing loans on profit statements has been minimized due to proactive provisioning strategies, including excess provisioning in previous years [1][69][70]. - Non-credit asset risks have also been largely cleared or are at minimal levels, contributing to overall stability in the banking sector [1][90]. Summary by Sections Asset Quality and Non-Performing Loans - The report highlights that the overall non-performing loan generation rate for listed banks has stabilized around 0.7%, which is still considered high compared to historical peaks [2][12]. - Different banks exhibit varying levels of asset quality pressure and provisioning capabilities, with larger banks and some city commercial banks performing better [2][93]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with strong asset quality and low provisioning pressure, such as Chengdu Bank, Changsha Bank, Zhangjiagang Bank, and Ruifeng Bank [2][105]. - It also recommends high-quality cyclical stocks like Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, which are expected to show early signs of recovery [2][105]. Loan Sector Analysis - The manufacturing and retail sectors have seen a clearing of non-performing loans, with their rates returning to levels seen in 2010 [26][30]. - The real estate sector's non-performing loan rate peaked in 2023 but has since shown signs of recovery, although it remains elevated [35][37]. - Retail loan risks are currently rising, with various types of personal loans experiencing increased non-performing rates [50][53]. Provisioning and Profit Stability - Banks have historically maintained excess provisions, which can be utilized to smooth profits during periods of rising non-performing loans [69][75]. - The current provisioning levels are deemed adequate to support stable profits for the next few years, with estimates suggesting that existing provisions could release at least 800 billion yuan in net profit [81][90].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector's allocation value, suggesting continued investment interest in the sector [4][10]. Core Viewpoints - The performance of listed banks in the first half of 2025 shows a marginal improvement in revenue and profit margins, with year-on-year growth of 1.0% in revenue and 0.8% in net profit attributable to shareholders [4][5]. - The recovery in the bond market during the second quarter has alleviated some of the pressures on bond investment returns, contributing to the overall performance improvement [4][5]. - The report anticipates that the banking sector's revenue and net profit growth will remain around 1% year-on-year for 2025, despite ongoing pressures on the banking fundamentals [4][10]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, listed banks experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 1.0% and a net profit growth of 0.8%, with quarter-on-quarter improvements of 2.8 percentage points and 2 percentage points respectively [4][5]. - The growth in interest-earning assets was 9.7% year-on-year, with a stable credit growth of 8% and a significant increase in financial investments by 14.9% [4][11]. - The net interest margin for the first half of 2025 was 1.33%, showing a year-on-year decline of 13 basis points, which is less than the decline seen in the same period last year [4][5]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income showed a positive trend, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8% in other non-interest income and a 3.1% increase in fee income [4][5][10]. - The report highlights that the recovery in the capital market has contributed to the improvement in non-interest income [4][10]. Asset Quality - The report notes that while the non-performing loan ratio remains stable, there is an increase in the generation rate of overdue and non-performing loans, particularly in retail banking [4][10]. - The provision coverage ratio remained stable, with an increase in provisioning efforts during the first half of 2025 [4][10]. Future Outlook - The banking sector is expected to face continued pressure in 2025, but signs of a potential turning point are emerging, with improved net interest margins and non-interest income [4][10]. - The report suggests that the demand for bank stocks will increase from long-term funds, driven by favorable policies encouraging investment in the banking sector [4][10].

Core Insights - Jiangsu Bank is actively seeking policy support for personal consumption loans from central and provincial financial departments [1][2] - The recent implementation of the national subsidy scheme for personal consumption loans aims to boost consumer spending and enhance the overall scale of the consumer credit market [2] Summary by Categories Company Developments - Jiangsu Bank's President Yuan Jun announced the bank's efforts to communicate with relevant authorities to secure support for personal consumption loans [1] - The bank is focusing on balancing growth in both efficiency and scale while emphasizing customer-centric development and digital transformation [2] Financial Performance - As of June 30, Jiangsu Bank's personal consumption loan balance reached approximately 340.58 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.20% [2] - The personal operating loan balance was about 62.56 billion yuan, with the highest year-on-year growth rate of approximately 14.50% [2] - However, the credit card loan balance decreased slightly by 0.50% year-on-year, amounting to around 34.81 billion yuan [2] Market Context - The national subsidy scheme involves 19 banks and 4 consumer finance companies focusing on eight consumer sectors, but Jiangsu Bank is currently not included in the list of institutions benefiting from the 1% interest subsidy [1] - The government encourages local financial departments to provide fiscal support to other institutions engaged in personal consumption loan business, aiming to broaden the policy's coverage [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Construction Bank (CCB) has demonstrated resilience in a low interest rate environment, achieving stable growth in key operational indicators for the first half of 2025, with total assets reaching 44.43 trillion yuan, a 9.52% increase year-on-year, and operating income of 385.9 billion yuan, up 2.95% [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, CCB's total assets reached 44.43 trillion yuan, a 9.52% increase from the end of the previous year [4]. - Operating income was 385.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.95% [1]. - Net commission and fee income rose to 65.2 billion yuan, marking a 4.02% increase [1]. - Pre-provision profit was 290.1 billion yuan, up 3.37% year-on-year [1]. - The provision coverage ratio improved to 239.4%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points from the end of the previous year [1]. Group 2: Asset and Liability Management - CCB is focusing on optimizing asset structure, with a significant increase in loans and bonds, which now account for nearly 90% of total assets [4]. - The average daily growth rate of interest-earning assets was 7.45%, an increase of 1.53 percentage points compared to the first quarter [4]. - Retail loans, including personal consumption and business loans, saw growth rates exceeding 15% [4]. - CCB's loan balance in the manufacturing sector increased by 10.25% from the end of the previous year [4]. Group 3: Non-Interest Income Growth - Non-interest income grew by nearly 26% year-on-year, reaching 99.2 billion yuan, accounting for over 25% of total revenue [8][9]. - Fee and commission income constituted 16.9% of CCB's operating income, leading among peers [9]. - The number of credit card customers surpassed 100 million, with wealth management and private banking clients growing over 20% [9]. Group 4: Risk Management and Asset Quality - CCB maintained a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.33%, down 1 percentage point from the end of the previous year [10]. - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 14.34%, indicating strong capital management [10]. - The NPL ratio in the real estate sector decreased by 0.05 percentage points, reflecting effective risk management [10]. - CCB is enhancing its risk management capabilities through a dynamic review of credit policies and credit structure adjustments [11].