新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-24 宏观分歧渐起，镍不锈钢价格弱势震荡 市场分析 2025-09-23日沪镍主力合约2510开于121140元/吨，收于120730元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.58%，当日成交量 为52899（-13200）手，持仓量为37993（6250）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约低开低走，全天呈弱势震荡走势，最高121440元/吨，最低120500元/吨。宏观面来看， 继上周美联储降息 25 个基点后，美联储内部再现政策分歧，多位官员发声抑制降息预期，强调当前利率水平适宜， 对镍价形成一定压力。 镍矿方面：新一轮报价开出，菲律宾CNC矿山1.3%FOB31。近期受台风天气影响，部分沿海地区镍矿卸货受阻。 菲律宾方面，矿山报价维持坚挺。装船方面，苏里高等矿区未受影响，下游铁厂亏损仍存，对原料镍矿采购维持 谨慎压价心理。印尼方面，镍矿市场供应持续宽松格局。9月(二期)内贸基准价上涨0.2-0.3美元，内贸升水方面， 当前升水维持+24，升水区间为+23-24。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格123000元/吨，较上一个交易日下跌800元/吨。现货交投有所升温，各品牌 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently in a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some primary lead production areas, but overall terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season demand signal is not obvious. However, with the overall positive macro - sentiment, lead prices in the non - ferrous sector may not decline further and are expected to remain in a range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On July 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.31 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,250 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On July 29, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,985 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 47,978 lots, down 24,548 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 64,534 lots, down 6,012 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,015 yuan/ton and a low of 16,890 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,870 yuan/ton and closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic lead futures market was weakly volatile, and different regions had different pricing strategies. Lead prices continued to weaken, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the spot market was generally weak [2] Inventory - On July 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous week. As of July 29, the LME lead inventory was 270,350 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy for the lead market is neutral, and the option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4][5]