Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recent continuous decline in urea prices is due to cost collapse from falling coal prices and lagging domestic agricultural demand caused by weather [1] - Export and domestic agricultural demand still support urea prices, and the possibility of a significant further decline is low as it is the top - dressing season for crops like corn and upstream inventory pressure has decreased [1] - Short - term strategy is to wait and see, and mid - term strategy is to go long on dips [1] Summary by Related Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures price: UR01 in Shandong closed at 1696 yuan/ton, down 0.41%; UR05 at 1718 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; UR09 at 1761 yuan/ton, down 0.68% [1] - Domestic spot prices: prices in Shanxi, Henan, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged, while in Hebei, it rose 0.54% to 1860 yuan/ton [1] Basis and Spread - Shandong spot - UR basis was 152 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; 01 - 05 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged, while melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased, with Shandong down 1.03% and Jiangsu down 1.80% [1] Important Information - Urea futures main contract 2509 opened at 1800 yuan/ton, reached a high of 1803 yuan/ton, a low of 1755 yuan/ton, closed at 1761 yuan/ton, and settled at 1774 yuan/ton, with a position of 231078 lots [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent continuous decline of urea is mainly due to two reasons: the cost collapse caused by the continuous decline of coal prices and the lag in demand due to the delayed release of agricultural demand in some domestic regions because of weather conditions [1]. - Export and domestic agricultural demand still support the price. As it is still the peak season for top - dressing of crops such as corn and the upstream inventory pressure has significantly reduced, the possibility of a further sharp decline in urea prices is low. The risk to consider is the change in export policies [1]. - The strategy suggestion is to wait and see in the short - term and go long on dips in the medium - term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from 1705 yuan/ton; UR05 closed at 1717 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from 1721 yuan/ton; UR09 closed at 1773 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from 1784 yuan/ton [1]. - Domestic spot prices: Shandong decreased by 0.53% to 1870 yuan/ton; Henan decreased by 0.54% to 1850 yuan/ton; other regions such as Shanxi, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - Basis and spreads: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 6 yuan/ton to 153 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 14 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1787 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1793 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1764 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1773 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1778 yuan/ton, and the position was 225127 lots [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Recent continuous decline of urea, with the main contract falling below 1800, is due to cost collapse from continuous coal - price decline and lagging demand caused by weather - related delays in agricultural demand in some domestic regions [1] - Export and domestic agricultural demand still support the price, and as it is the top - dressing season for crops like corn and upstream inventory pressure has significantly reduced, the possibility of further sharp decline in urea price is low [1] - The risk to consider is the change in export policy [1] - The trading strategy is to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips in the medium term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong decreased by 8 yuan/ton (-0.47%), UR05 decreased by 8 yuan/ton (-0.46%), and UR09 decreased by 6 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic small - particle spot prices in Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] - Upstream coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged [1] - Downstream prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan and melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 8 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged [1] 3. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of urea futures main contract 2509 was 1794 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1810 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1773 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1784 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1791 yuan/ton, and the position was 219438 lots [1]

| | | 尿素早评20250529: 成本坍塌与需求滞后 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 变化值 変化值 | 单位 | 5月28日 | 5月27日 | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | (收盘价) | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1713.00 1880.00 | 1736.00 1860.00 | -23.00 20.00 | -1.32% 1.08% | | 尿素期货价格 | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1729.00 | 1748.00 | -19.00 | -1.09% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1790.00 | 1814.00 | -24.00 | -1.32% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1730.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1860.00 | 1850.00 | 10.00 | 0.54% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | (小顆粒) ...