宏观｜ "解雇"鲍威尔？20250720 摘要 当前外需领域竞争激烈，企业通过增加供给和降价争夺市场份额，导致 固定资产周转率降至历史最低水平，表明需求强劲领域更易出现供给过 剩，与内需领域周转率仍处于历史中位数形成对比。 本轮"反内卷"政策并非全面收缩中上游供给，而是聚焦于汽车、外卖 等中下游行业，高耗能行业已完成产能改造和设备更新，产能并不落后， 与 2016 年供给侧改革有显著不同。 应对制造业"偷摸"新增产能，除自律约谈外，还可借鉴日韩德经验， 通过行业并购重组、提高技术标准、加强监管淘汰老旧设备等方式，从 根本上缓解无序竞争。 淘汰老设备政策短期内可显著缓解内卷，对就业影响不大，乐观情景下 可拉动 PPI 一个百分点，提升工业企业盈利增速两个百分点，兼顾短期 经济影响和通胀，是市场忽视的重要政策抓手。 当前需求侧政策应避免刺激过剩领域需求，而应引导服务业等非过剩领 域需求上升，实现需求结构再平衡，例如发展服务业以缓解制造业内卷， 服务消费和服务业投资存在约 3 万亿人民币的缺口。 Q&A 为应对制造业中的"偷摸"新增产能力量，可以采取多种措施，包括加强监管 淘汰老旧设备以及借鉴海外经验进行产业结构调 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with a 5.2% growth in the second quarter, indicating a stable and positive economic development trend despite external pressures [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Structure - The rapid growth of high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing has become a significant driver of economic growth, with investments in key areas like new energy equipment and integrated circuits exceeding 20% [2][3]. - The digital economy is expected to account for over 45% of GDP this year, reflecting a shift towards new economic drivers [2]. - Traditional industries are also seeing strong investment in smart upgrades, with a year-on-year growth of 15% [2]. Group 2: Demand Structure and Consumption - Consumption continues to play a crucial role in economic growth, contributing approximately 65%, with service consumption rising to over 55% [3]. - The investment landscape shows a "two-end strong" pattern, with infrastructure investment growing by 5.5% and social welfare investments, such as affordable housing, increasing by 12% [3]. - Manufacturing technology transformation investments are also notable, growing at 18% [3]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Risks and Indicators - Real estate investment's year-on-year decline has narrowed to 3.5%, and local government debt replacement has exceeded expectations [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.1% in June after four months of decline, indicating a slight recovery in consumer prices [3]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a reduced negative growth rate, suggesting that supply-demand imbalances are gradually easing [3]. Group 4: Economic Quality and Efficiency - The energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 3.2%, and the share of clean energy reached 36% [4]. - The median R&D intensity of listed companies increased to 4.8%, indicating a focus on innovation [4]. - The contribution rate of total factor productivity (TFP) continues to rise, with the profit margin of industrial enterprises reaching 4.97% [4]. Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - The GDP growth target for the year is expected to be around 5%, but challenges remain, including uncertainties in external demand and structural employment issues among youth [5]. - Recommendations for the second half of the year include targeted fiscal policies, such as increasing special bond issuance for critical technologies and enhancing support for specialized enterprises [5]. - Monetary policy should focus on maintaining balance while reducing costs for businesses and supporting credit for specialized and innovative companies [5].