证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 《【粤开宏观】5%的成绩与发力方向—— 2025 年中国经济复盘》2026-01-19 宏观研究 2026 年 02 月 01 日 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：方堃 执业编号：S0300521050001 电话：010-83755575 邮箱：fangkun@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】美联储新主席沃什将如何 "掌舵"？能否保持独立？》2026-01-31 《【粤开宏观】美联储是否会屈从政治压 力？》2026-01-29 《【粤开宏观】如何明显提高居民消费 率？》2026-01-27 《【粤开宏观】万亿顺差从何而来？》 2026-01-25 【粤开宏观】2025 年中国区域经济版 图：东进西稳，南升北降 摘要 2025 年是"十四五"规划收官之年，在内外部复杂严峻的形势下，中国实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策，极不平凡地实现了经济增长目标。2025年中国GDP 同比增长 5.0%，名义 GDP 首次站上 140 万亿元台阶，折合 19.6 万亿美元。 区域经济 ...

以下文章来源于国民经略 ，作者凯风 国民经略 . 在这里，读懂中国经济、城市和楼市 本文来自微信公众号： 国民经略 ，作者：凯风，原文标题：《"富"可敌市！中国第一个万亿GDP地 市辖区，诞生》 经济大区，勇挑大梁。 深圳市南山区人代会透露，2025年GDP总量突破1万亿元，成为我国首个GDP过万亿元的地市辖区。 深圳南山，也由此成为继上海浦东新区、北京海淀区之后的第三个万亿GDP大区。 上海、北京均为省级的直辖市，而深圳则是副省级市，属于地市范畴。 南山GDP超万亿，不只是广东"强区经济"的标志性时刻，更是所有非直辖市城区经济的空前突破。 今年是"十五五"开局之年，也是APEC峰会在深圳举办之年。 作为中国经济第一大省的第一大区，站上万亿级新台阶，南山何以更进一步？城区经济何以再跃升？ 01 城区经济超万亿，意味着什么？ 我国共有2800多个区县，其中包括900多个市辖区。GDP总量超千亿的城区不到200个，超过5000亿 的仅有10多个，超万亿的更是凤毛麟角。 万亿GDP，通常被视为经济强市的象征。日前，随着温州、大连联袂突破，万亿俱乐部成员扩容到 29席，约占全国地级市总量的1/10。 南山区GDP总量 ...

Core Insights - China's total electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2025, marking a significant milestone as it surpasses the combined electricity consumption of the EU, Russia, India, and Japan, and is more than double that of the United States [1] - The increase in electricity demand is driven by the rise of new productive forces, competitive pricing advantages, and the electrification of residential life, indicating a structural revolution towards a greener energy system [1] Group 1 - The contribution of the tertiary sector and urban residents to the annual electricity growth is 50%, highlighting their role as the main drivers of this increase [1] - The proliferation of electric vehicles and the emergence of new consumption scenarios, alongside the demand from emerging industries like AI and the digital economy, are accelerating the transition towards a high value-added industrial structure [1] Group 2 - By May 2025, China's cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation is expected to exceed 1 billion kilowatts, accounting for 30% of the total installed capacity and nearing half of the global share [2] - The share of thermal power generation is projected to decrease to approximately 40%, indicating a significant shift towards renewable energy sources [2] Group 3 - The transition to a new power system dominated by renewable energy sources is essential, addressing challenges such as the volatility of wind and solar power and the mismatch between energy supply and demand [2][3] - A new energy infrastructure that integrates generation, grid, load, and storage is necessary, focusing on four pillars: transitioning coal power, developing large-scale energy storage, creating a smart system for supply-demand balance, and optimizing transmission networks [2][3] Group 4 - The establishment of a unified national electricity market and the reform of pricing mechanisms are crucial for driving the green transition, ensuring that electricity prices reflect supply-demand dynamics and environmental costs [3] - The milestone of 10 trillion kilowatt-hours signifies not only a peak in energy production capacity but also the need for a modern energy system that is secure, efficient, clean, flexible, and interactive, supporting China's modernization efforts [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market is entering a critical data validation period in January 2026, influenced by policy implementation, macro data, corporate performance, and liquidity changes, leading to increased volatility and a tendency for phase rebalancing [1] - Sectors that led in December, such as defense, 6G, and satellite internet, require performance or order validation to digest their gains, while themes with clear industrial trends like commercial aerospace and AI computing may still present active opportunities [1] - The strategic resource attributes of certain non-ferrous metal sectors, particularly strategic minor metals like antimony, tungsten, and rare earths, are being revalued by the market due to their essential role in technological breakthroughs and their strategic scarcity [1] Group 2 - Three key industry directions are highlighted: first, strategic resources and cyclical recovery sectors, focusing on upstream resource products with strategic scarcity, including industrial metals (copper), strategic minor metals, and energy metals (potash) [2] - Second, the focus is on technological self-reliance and new productivity sectors, emphasizing clear industrial trends and high visibility in performance for leading companies in areas such as AI computing, digital economy, semiconductor domestic substitution, and commercial aerospace [2] - Third, there is an emphasis on domestic demand recovery and structural improvement, with some domestic demand sectors having attractive valuations after prolonged adjustments [2]

Core Insights - The Pearl River Delta (PRD) region is entering a new phase of development, focusing on innovation-driven and collaborative growth as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The region aims to transform its industrial structure from factor-driven to innovation-driven, enhancing regional cooperation and urban development quality [1] Group 1: Industrial Development - The PRD cities are prioritizing the development of new productive forces, with a strategic focus on technological innovation to lead the modernization of the industrial system [1] - Guangzhou is constructing a "12218" modern industrial system, emphasizing the consolidation of existing industries while exploring new sectors like low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence [2] - Shenzhen is focusing on the integration of digital, network, platform, and financial services to upgrade its manufacturing sector, with a strong emphasis on artificial intelligence and green technologies [5] - Foshan is targeting a transformation from a manufacturing hub to an intelligent manufacturing city, particularly in the fields of artificial intelligence and robotics [5] - Dongguan is building an "8+8+4" key industrial system, enhancing traditional manufacturing through digitalization while expanding into semiconductor and new energy sectors [7] - Huizhou aims to achieve a "trillion GDP" target by strengthening industrial collaboration with neighboring cities and developing an AI and robotics industrial belt [9][10] Group 2: Regional Cooperation - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has accelerated the integration of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with a focus on both hard and soft connectivity to optimize regional development [12] - Guangzhou and Shenzhen are leading the creation of a world-class urban agglomeration, with initiatives to enhance international competitiveness and cooperation with Hong Kong and Macau [12][14] - The construction of urban circles and the promotion of "same city" development are becoming increasingly important, with cities like Huizhou and Zhuhai actively participating in these efforts [14][16] Group 3: Urban Development and Quality of Life - The PRD cities are shifting their focus from scale expansion to high-quality, efficient, and livable urban development, aiming to create modern, resilient, and civilized cities [17] - Guangzhou is emphasizing urban renewal and village renovation, with a focus on enhancing urban quality and functionality [22] - Dongguan is pursuing a strategy of "intelligent creation and livability," aiming to improve governance and urban experience [18] - Each city is developing unique urban brands and characteristics, with a focus on creating high-quality living environments [20][22]

Core Insights - The recent urban work conference by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China marks a new direction for urban development in the new era, emphasizing high-quality urban growth and the transition from rapid urbanization to stable development [1][2] Group 1: Changes in Urban Development - The role of cities has shifted from being mere economic growth engines to important carriers of modernization and spaces for people's happiness, reflecting a dual focus on multi-dimensional value [2] - Urban development is transitioning from a focus on growth to a people-centered approach, emphasizing both production and living quality, and moving away from traditional industrial and real estate-driven models [2] Group 2: Hangzhou's Development Practices - Hangzhou serves as a model for the evolution from "growth logic" to "life logic," integrating the concepts of people-centeredness and quality enhancement across various urban development sectors [3][4] - The city has prioritized ecological development, viewing ecology as a core competitive advantage rather than a constraint, exemplified by initiatives like the West Lake's free access and the comprehensive protection of Xixi Wetland [3] Group 3: Innovation and Livelihood - Hangzhou has developed an innovation ecosystem that supports natural growth for talent and small businesses, characterized by a rich, self-sustaining environment that fosters continuous internal growth [4] - The city has made significant strides in public service equality and quality, enhancing citizen satisfaction through initiatives like the "most run once" administrative reform and smart urban management [4][5] Group 4: Future Recommendations for Hangzhou - To become a model of a "modernized people's city," Hangzhou should focus on balanced regional development and enhance the quality of living spaces, ensuring that all citizens can share in high-quality life experiences [5] - The city should create high-energy environments that cater to diverse cultural needs and support various demographics, including youth and the elderly, to solidify its status as a world-class modern metropolis [5]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port represents a significant opportunity for global economic growth and development, showcasing China's commitment to high-level opening-up and creating a favorable investment environment [1][2]. Group 1: Opportunities from Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port, set to officially start operations on December 18, is expected to attract investments in various sectors such as tourism, service trade, digital economy, biomedicine, and cosmetics [1]. - The port's operation is seen as a continuation of China's long-standing approach to economic development, emphasizing the importance of creating profit opportunities through foreign investment [1]. Group 2: China's Global Economic Role - China is viewed as a beacon for multilateral cooperation, advocating for a more equitable international trade system, which has garnered support from many countries in the Global South [2]. - The ongoing high-level opening-up by China is aimed at fostering shared development among nations, contributing to a more stable global future [2].

Group 1 - The article discusses the rise of China within the framework established by the U.S., highlighting that China has not sought to overthrow the existing international order but has instead thrived within it [3][5] - China's transformation from low-end manufacturing to high-tech and high-value sectors, such as high-speed rail, 5G, and renewable energy, has allowed it to exceed previous industrial capabilities and influence international standards [5][9] - The U.S. faces challenges in attempting to decouple from China, as many American companies are deeply integrated into China's production and consumer markets, making a complete separation economically unfeasible [7][9] Group 2 - The article suggests that the U.S. should reconsider its approach to competition with China, focusing on understanding the essence of development rather than merely attempting to contain China [11] - It emphasizes that the U.S. has historically believed that controlling the rules would ensure its dominance, but the emergence of China has disrupted this belief, as China has excelled within the established rules [3][9] - The narrative indicates that the U.S. must adapt to the reality of China's growth and the changing dynamics of global competition, rather than relying on outdated strategies [11]

Core Points - Beijing Education Commission announced the dynamic adjustment and addition of degree authorization points for doctoral and master's programs for 2025, affecting 12 universities in Beijing [1][4]. Group 1: Universities and Programs - Beijing Jiaotong University applied for a master's degree point in Regional and National Studies [2][6]. - Northern Industrial University applied for a professional master's degree point in Engineering Management [2][6]. - Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture applied for two professional master's degree points in Energy Power and Transportation [2][6]. - Beijing University of Petroleum and Chemical Engineering applied for a master's degree point in Safety Science and Engineering [2][6]. - Beijing Agricultural University applied for a professional master's degree point in Food and Nutrition [2][6]. - Peking Union Medical College applied for a doctoral degree point in Oral Medicine [2][6]. - Beijing Foreign Studies University applied for two points: a professional master's degree in Digital Economy and a master's degree point in Intelligent Science and Technology [2][6]. - Beijing Wuzi University applied for a master's degree point in System Science [2][6]. - Beijing Information Science and Technology University applied for a master's degree point in Physics [2][6]. - China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing) applied for a doctoral degree point in Electronic Information and a master's degree point in Applied Statistics [2][6]. - China University of Petroleum (Beijing) applied for a doctoral degree point in Intelligent Science and Technology [2][6]. - Beijing Union University applied for a professional master's degree point in Mechanical Engineering [2][6].

Group 1 - The overseas markets experienced a rebound during the week of November 24-28, 2025, with major indices in the US rising over 3%, led by the Nasdaq 100 which increased by 4.93% [2][7] - In the Eurozone, Germany showed strong performance, while Asian markets also saw moderate gains, with the Hang Seng Tech and Nikkei 225 both rising over 3% [2][7] - The valuation expansion was noted across major US indices, with PE ratios increasing by more than 1x, and the Nasdaq, Nikkei 225, Korean Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech seeing PE expansions exceeding 2x [2][7] Group 2 - A-shares saw a broad-based rebound during the same week, with the National Index 2000 rising by 4.50% and the CSI 1000 by 3.77%, indicating strong performance in smaller-cap stocks [2][27] - The overall valuation of A-shares experienced mild expansion, with only the large-cap value index showing a slight decline of 0.21% [2][27] - The PE ratio of the CSI 2000 significantly recovered, expanding by 7.27x, while small-cap growth stocks outperformed large-cap value stocks [2][27] Group 3 - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector showed significant rebounds, with electronics rising by 6.05% and communications by 8.7%, indicating strong investor interest [2][50] - The valuation of the TMT sector expanded notably, with electronics, communications, and computers showing PE expansions of 3.6x, 3.58x, and 2.56x respectively [2][50] - The downstream consumer sectors, particularly social services, beauty care, and food and beverage, exhibited favorable valuation metrics, with their valuation percentiles remaining below 53% [2][50] Group 4 - Emerging industries saw a comprehensive increase, with optical communication performing exceptionally well, and sectors like IDC, quantum communication, and 5G leading the gains [2][50] - The semiconductor industry also showed significant PE expansions, with IDC and integrated circuits leading the way [2][50] - Popular concepts in the market included optical modules, optical chips, and communication devices, reflecting strong growth potential in these areas [2][50]