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汽车视点丨 需求透支与政策调整共振,年末车市增长承压?
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-12-09 09:53
新华财经上海12月9日电(记者王鹤)汽车消费市场11月未现年末"翘尾"行情。中国汽车流通协会乘联 分会8日发布数据显示,11月全国乘用车市场零售222.5万辆,同比下降8.1%,环比下降1.1%。2025年以 来,乘用车累计零售2148.3万辆,同比增长6.1%。车市零售累计增速为1-2月增长1.2%、3-6月增长 15%,7-9月增速徘徊在6%左右,10-11月回落到偏低状态,呈现出高基数下的需求减速特征。 业内人士认为,受前期消费需求提前释放、政策调整及车企销售策略变化等多重影响,市场步入短期阶 段性调整,今年年末车市预计难现"翘尾"行情。 11月汽车市场需求呈现减弱迹象 2026年车市韧性面临挑战 消费政策成为关键变量。即将到来的2026年,国内汽车行业政策将有两项变化:一是新能源汽车将减半 征收购置税,即5%,而此前购置税为零;二是报废和以旧换新补贴有潜在变化,尚不明确。 有观点认为,以往优惠政策年终到期前,都会出现一波"冲刺"型消费,形成年末市场"翘尾"现象,今年 情况有所不同。 中国汽车流通协会分析指出,11月车市步入年度冲刺期,上半月市场表现相对平淡,主要受前期"金九 银十"消费透支影响;同时, ...
8月外贸数据点评:出口动能边际下降
LIANCHU SECURITIES· 2025-09-10 07:47
Export Data - In August, exports grew by 4.4% year-on-year, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, and below the Wind consensus expectation of 5.9%[3] - Month-on-month, exports were flat with a 0.1% increase, indicating a stagnation in export value compared to the previous month[3] - The decline in export momentum is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year and signs of demand exhaustion from earlier periods[3] Trade with the US and Other Regions - Exports to the US fell by 33.1% year-on-year, a further decline of 11.4 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month decrease of 11.8%[4] - The share of exports to the US has decreased from 12% to 10% in the second half of the year[4] - Exports to non-US regions showed significant growth, with the EU growing by 10.4% and ASEAN by 22.5% in August[4] Product Categories - Labor-intensive product exports saw a significant decline, with categories like bags, clothing, and footwear experiencing drops of -14.9%, -10.1%, and -17.1% respectively, collectively dragging down overall export growth by 1.2 percentage points[5] - In contrast, electromechanical products grew by 7.6%, contributing 4.5 percentage points to export growth, while high-tech products increased by 8.9%, adding 2.1 percentage points[5] Import Data - Imports grew by only 1.3% year-on-year in August, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to low prices of bulk commodities[6] - Energy imports continued to decline, with coal, crude oil, and natural gas imports down by -35.9%, -15.1%, and -8.4% respectively[6] - Agricultural imports turned negative again, with a decline driven by reduced volumes and prices of grains and soybeans[6] Future Outlook - Export momentum may weaken further due to high base effects in Q4, but there are supportive factors such as improved global economic recovery, particularly in the EU and ASEAN regions, which together account for 33% of China's total exports[8] - Exports to Africa have been strong, with a cumulative growth rate reaching 24.6% in August, increasing its share of total exports to 6%[8]