顺周期涨价扩散
Search documents
招商证券:地缘成为影响A股最重要的边际变量 3月配置主线围绕两会前瞻+涨价扩散展开
智通财经网· 2026-03-04 22:48
Core Viewpoint - The A-share index is expected to be limited in space and primarily driven by structural trends in March, influenced by the upcoming Two Sessions and the release of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] Market Outlook - The index is anticipated to oscillate near previous highs, with a focus on policy expectations and government investment intensity as key variables [2] - Geopolitical factors, particularly the US-Iran situation and US-China communications, are significant influences on market dynamics [2] - The market style is expected to balance between growth and value, with small-cap stocks likely to continue outperforming [3] Policy and Economic Indicators - The Two Sessions in March will reinforce expectations for stable growth policies, with a focus on traditional infrastructure and service consumption policies [2][3] - The first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan is projected to see significant project acceleration [2] Industry and Sector Recommendations - Key sectors to focus on include non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, machinery (automation and engineering), power equipment (batteries and wind power), electronics (semiconductors), and public utilities (electricity) [3][5] - The market is positioned for a core window of policy anticipation and price increase trends [5] Liquidity and Fund Flow - Incremental capital is expected to continue net inflow in March, with attention on the dynamics between financing funds and ETF redemptions [4] - The macro liquidity environment is projected to remain stable and ample, supported by the central bank's monetary policy stance [4] Economic Performance and Profit Expectations - Recent adjustments in profit expectations indicate an upward trend, particularly in resource products, information technology, and midstream manufacturing sectors [4] - The sectors with the most significant profit growth adjustments include agriculture, coal, non-ferrous metals, steel, and power equipment [4] Market Sentiment and Trends - High sentiment areas in February were concentrated in midstream manufacturing, consumer services, and information technology, with notable improvements in machinery sales and resource prices [5] - The market is advised to focus on sectors benefiting from policy anticipation and price increases [5]
A股2026年3月观点及配置建议:地缘加剧,资源科技-20260301
CMS· 2026-03-01 10:05
地缘加剧,资源科技 ——A 股 2026 年 3 月观点及配置建议 展望 3 月,指数空间受限,结构行情为主。3 月即将召开两会以及披露十五五 规划,市场也会围绕政策预期和落地方向交易。地缘成为影响 A 股最重要的边 际变量,美伊局势走向将会影响后续大宗商品走势和全球宏观逻辑,此外中美 之间的沟通交流也是重要事件,市场风格会更加均衡,中小盘可能继续占优, 顺周期涨价扩散和 AI 硬件扩散依然是核心主线。 定期报告 相关报告 《指数震荡,涨价扩散——A 股 2026 年 2 月观点及配置建议》 《开年攻势,指数新高——A 股 2026 年 1 月观点及配置建议》 《跨年行情,蓝筹启动——A 股 2025 年 12 月观点及配置建议》 证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2026 年 3 月 1 日 《结构更替,蓄势待发——A 股 2025 年 11 月观点及配置建议》 《攻势不改,新高在望——A 股 2025 年 10 月观点及配置建议》 《增量仍在,上行未止——A 股 2025 年 9 月观点及配置建议》 《先抑后扬,蓄力新高——A 股 2025 年 8 月观点及配置建议》 《突破在望,进攻为主——A 股 202 ...