其实周五那天的市场特别有戏剧性，本来美国赶上"黑色星期五"，大家都忙着购物，期货市场的交易量 就比平时清淡，结果芝商所的交易平台还出了几个小时的故障，直接把全球大宗商品的波动给放大了， 连到期的汽油、柴油期货合约都跟着乱了阵脚。就在这种乱糟糟的行情里，原油和金属硬是走出了两条 完全相反的路。 先说说原油，这波四连跌可是2023年以来最长的一次，周五最后收在58美元多一桶。核心原因其实就两 点，一是大家担心市场供应过剩，二是地缘政治的风险溢价在下降。听说特朗普上周跟委内瑞拉的马杜 罗通了电话，还聊到了潜在会面的事，这两国关系一缓和，石油市场的紧张情绪自然就松了不少。另外 大家也在等周日OPEC+的线上会议，目前看他们大概率会维持到2026年初暂停增产的计划，短期也没 法缓解供应压力，油价自然扛不住。还有俄乌那边，普京也说特朗普的停火方案能当谈判基础，虽然关 键分歧还在，但局势缓和的预期已经影响了市场。 各位朋友，我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者、专盯中长线投资的老炮儿！最近大宗商品市场真是 把"反差感"拉满了，一边是原油跌跌不休连着四个月走低，另一边白银、铜价直接飙到历史新高，是不 是好多朋友看懵了，想知道这背 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how market fluctuations are driven by various "expectations," with major expectations leading to trend-driven markets and minor expectations influencing trading activities [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. International Trade Court has halted the implementation of Trump's tariffs, resulting in a rally in overseas risk assets and a strong performance in the stock market [2]. - The bond market showed cautious sentiment, with the 10-year government bond yield opening slightly higher at 1.6875% and peaking at 1.698% before retreating [2]. - The funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 266 billion yuan, leading to a net injection of 111.5 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - There is a noted easing in fund redemptions, which contributed to a decline in interest rates towards the end of the trading day [2]. - The article mentions a humorous inquiry from institutions questioning the bond market's reaction despite the liquidity measures, suggesting a disconnect between market expectations and actual performance [2]. - High-profile analysts, such as Goldman Sachs, indicate that Trump may still have options to appeal the court's decision, which could lead to further volatility in the markets [2].

市场的一轮又一轮涨跌，就是由一个又一个"预期"推动，通俗地说就是"传言"。大预期推动趋势性行情，小预期推动交易性行情。当我们预期一轮宽松货 币政策到来时，债券市场就将迎来一轮大的牛市行情；而当我们预期紧缩货币政策到来时，债券市场又会经历一次熊市的洗礼。 ——笔记哥《应对》 犹记得10Y国债1.6%的时候，卖方分析师比拼谁敢喊更低：牛来了，见证失去的N年，转角遇到1.0%！ 上午资金面边际收敛，尾盘转为均衡，DR007小幅上至1.9%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.03.17) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | RO01 | 1.87 | | | 2.66 | 541 | 48145. 23 | -1254. 39 | 85.84 | | R007 | 1 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent increase in expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping to a new low, indicating market bets on a March rate cut [2][25]. - The article suggests that the Federal Reserve's previous hawkish stance was more of a facade, as it is aware of the underlying inflation issues caused by the Biden administration's spending [3][11]. - The article highlights that the reduction in fiscal spending initiated by the Trump administration is starting to show results, contributing to the current economic conditions [12][24]. Group 2 - Consumer confidence has decreased, and the Nasdaq is undergoing adjustments, reflecting a shift in market expectations [26][28]. - The article notes that the Federal Reserve's decisions on rate cuts are influenced by market expectations rather than just economic data, suggesting that anticipated changes can lead to actual market movements [34][39]. - The article emphasizes that a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could positively impact both the A-share and A-bond markets, while also warning of the risk of foreign capital selling A-bonds if a consensus on rate cuts is reached [46][47]. Group 3 - The article discusses the dynamic nature of market predictions, emphasizing that market participants must adapt to the actions of others rather than relying on static forecasts [50][56]. - It mentions that recent market behavior has shown a shift towards blue-chip stocks, with banks and liquor stocks performing well while technology stocks face adjustments [59][60]. - The article concludes by stating that while market adjustments are inevitable, predicting the timing and extent of these adjustments is challenging, and investors should be prepared for volatility [64][66].