Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how market fluctuations are driven by various "expectations," with major expectations leading to trend-driven markets and minor expectations influencing trading activities [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. International Trade Court has halted the implementation of Trump's tariffs, resulting in a rally in overseas risk assets and a strong performance in the stock market [2]. - The bond market showed cautious sentiment, with the 10-year government bond yield opening slightly higher at 1.6875% and peaking at 1.698% before retreating [2]. - The funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 266 billion yuan, leading to a net injection of 111.5 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - There is a noted easing in fund redemptions, which contributed to a decline in interest rates towards the end of the trading day [2]. - The article mentions a humorous inquiry from institutions questioning the bond market's reaction despite the liquidity measures, suggesting a disconnect between market expectations and actual performance [2]. - High-profile analysts, such as Goldman Sachs, indicate that Trump may still have options to appeal the court's decision, which could lead to further volatility in the markets [2].

市场的一轮又一轮涨跌，就是由一个又一个"预期"推动，通俗地说就是"传言"。大预期推动趋势性行情，小预期推动交易性行情。当我们预期一轮宽松货 币政策到来时，债券市场就将迎来一轮大的牛市行情；而当我们预期紧缩货币政策到来时，债券市场又会经历一次熊市的洗礼。 ——笔记哥《应对》 犹记得10Y国债1.6%的时候，卖方分析师比拼谁敢喊更低：牛来了，见证失去的N年，转角遇到1.0%！ 上午资金面边际收敛，尾盘转为均衡，DR007小幅上至1.9%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.03.17) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | RO01 | 1.87 | | | 2.66 | 541 | 48145. 23 | -1254. 39 | 85.84 | | R007 | 1 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent increase in expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping to a new low, indicating market bets on a March rate cut [2][25]. - The article suggests that the Federal Reserve's previous hawkish stance was more of a facade, as it is aware of the underlying inflation issues caused by the Biden administration's spending [3][11]. - The article highlights that the reduction in fiscal spending initiated by the Trump administration is starting to show results, contributing to the current economic conditions [12][24]. Group 2 - Consumer confidence has decreased, and the Nasdaq is undergoing adjustments, reflecting a shift in market expectations [26][28]. - The article notes that the Federal Reserve's decisions on rate cuts are influenced by market expectations rather than just economic data, suggesting that anticipated changes can lead to actual market movements [34][39]. - The article emphasizes that a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could positively impact both the A-share and A-bond markets, while also warning of the risk of foreign capital selling A-bonds if a consensus on rate cuts is reached [46][47]. Group 3 - The article discusses the dynamic nature of market predictions, emphasizing that market participants must adapt to the actions of others rather than relying on static forecasts [50][56]. - It mentions that recent market behavior has shown a shift towards blue-chip stocks, with banks and liquor stocks performing well while technology stocks face adjustments [59][60]. - The article concludes by stating that while market adjustments are inevitable, predicting the timing and extent of these adjustments is challenging, and investors should be prepared for volatility [64][66].