1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for logs is improving, and the price is fluctuating at a high level [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - For the 2605 contract, the closing price on March 31, 2026, was 820.5, with a daily decline of 0.7% and a weekly increase of 0.6%. The trading volume was 4637, with a daily decrease of 15.2% and a weekly decrease of 38%. The open interest was 11027, with a daily decrease of 3.2% and a weekly decrease of 9% [1] - For the 2607 contract, the closing price was 820, with a daily decline of 0.4% and a weekly increase of 1%. The trading volume was 923, with a daily increase of 17.0% and a weekly increase of 13%. The open interest was 3718, with a daily increase of 7.7% and a weekly increase of 39% [1] - For the 2609 contract, the closing price was 824.5, with a daily decline of 0.5% and a weekly increase of 0%. The trading volume was 212, with a daily increase of 41.3% and a weekly decrease of 48%. The open interest was 1628, with a daily increase of 4.9% and a weekly increase of 25% [1] - **Spread Data**: - The spread between the spot and the 2605 contract was -30.5 on March 31, 2026, with a daily decline of 15.3% and a weekly decline of 15% - The spread between the 2605 - 2607 contracts was 0.5, with a daily decline of 80.0% and a weekly decline of 50% - The spread between the 2605 - 2609 contracts was -4, with a daily increase of 60.0% and a weekly decline of 20% [1] - **Spot Market Data**: - In the log spot market, the prices of different types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets showed various trends. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market was 790, with a daily increase of 0.0% and a weekly increase of 1.3% [1] - In the wood - square spot market, the prices of different types of wood squares in different regions also had their own characteristics. For example, the median price of 3 - meter radiata pine wood squares in Rizhao was 1250, with a daily increase of 0.0% and a weekly increase of 0.0% [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In 2026, the government work report focused on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target was adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments was increased [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4]

Core Viewpoint - The data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the decline in housing prices in first-tier cities has narrowed, suggesting a potential recovery in the real estate market [2][3] Group 1: First-tier Cities - In December 2025, new residential prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3%, a reduction of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while second-hand residential prices fell by 0.9%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points [2] - The transaction volumes for new homes in December 2025 were as follows: Beijing at 440,000 square meters, Shanghai at 1,040,000 square meters, Guangzhou at 720,000 square meters, and Shenzhen at 220,000 square meters, with month-on-month increases of 56%, 81%, 28%, and 21% respectively [3] - Shanghai's new home prices increased by 0.2% in December 2025, making it the only first-tier city to see a price rise, while its second-hand home prices decreased by 0.6%, a reduction that was less than other first-tier cities [3] Group 2: Second and Third-tier Cities - In December 2025, second-tier cities saw new home prices decrease by 0.4% and second-hand prices drop by 0.7%, with both declines widening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] - Third-tier cities experienced a similar trend, with new home prices down by 0.4% and second-hand prices down by 0.7%, the latter also reflecting a widening decline [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall housing market remains under pressure for price stability, with high inventory levels and a decrease in the willingness of homeowners to lower prices, despite a reduction in new listings [4] - The upcoming January market performance is critical for the first quarter, as the timing of the traditional sales season has shifted due to the later Spring Festival in 2026 [4] - Recent policy measures, including historically low mortgage rates, have led to increased engagement from potential buyers, particularly among families with multiple children and new residents [5]

Group 1 - Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of moral education for minors as a strategic foundational task, aiming to create a favorable social environment for their healthy growth [1] - The article highlights the need for a collective effort to support the healthy development of minors [1] - Xi Jinping's call to expand domestic demand is framed as a strategic move for economic growth [1] Group 2 - The State Council issued the "Regulations on Promoting National Reading" to enhance reading culture [1] - The Central Military Commission and the State Council released guidelines on military registration [1] - A joint announcement from the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments introduced rules for pricing behavior on internet platforms [1]

Core Viewpoint - The external environment poses new and higher demands on China's macroeconomic regulation, especially in the context of the trade and tariff wars initiated by Trump, necessitating a focus on improving the foresight, effectiveness, and targeting of macroeconomic policies [2] Group 1: Complexity of Current Economic Challenges - The difficulties and challenges in the current economic operation are more complex than in the past, primarily due to weak expectations leading to insufficient effective demand, which in turn causes social supply-demand imbalances [3] - The current macroeconomic issues are dual in nature, involving both the "old" problem of insufficient demand and the "new" problem of weak expectations, requiring simultaneous attention to both aspects in macroeconomic regulation [3] Group 2: Dual Objectives of Macroeconomic Regulation - The dual objectives of macroeconomic regulation must focus on both expanding demand and stabilizing expectations, with the latter supporting the former [4] - It is essential to analyze measures that relate to both demand expansion and expectation stabilization, ensuring that macroeconomic operations are not simplistically equated to demand expansion alone [5] Group 3: Policy and Reform as Dual Engines - Macroeconomic regulation relies on both policy adjustments aimed at expanding demand and reform actions focused on stabilizing expectations, necessitating a dual approach [6] - Policy adjustments play a supportive role in stabilizing expectations, while comprehensive reforms provide the necessary institutional mechanisms to achieve this stability, highlighting the importance of both in addressing current economic challenges [6]