随着国家对"内卷式"竞争进行综合整治，市场出现了不同的声音：企业担心订单量受影响，消费者 害怕商品价格上涨。这些担忧是否有必要？ 消费者的"双重身份" 从消费者个人角度看，价格似乎是越低越好。但尹艳林指出，消费者存在着"双重身份"——既是消 费者，也是生产企业的劳动者。 作为劳动者，其收入取决于商品卖出的价格，价格并非越低越好。持续的价格"内卷"可能导致企业 利润下滑，进而影响劳动者收入和就业稳定。 "中央提出'促进价格合理回升'，正是从全局考虑这一问题，平衡消费者与劳动者的双重利益。"尹 艳林表示。 从经济运行的基本原理看，经济发展需要形成从生产到分配到消费再到流通各个环节的良性循环。 全国政协委员尹艳林在接受中国经济网专访时给出了分析：如果希望通过"反内卷"来解决价格走低 或总量失衡问题"并不现实"，目前真正的问题主要在于有效需求不足。 价格走低的根本原因 近期，国家统计局公布的价格数据显示积极变化，尤其是工业品价格领域。有声音将这些变化直接 归因于"反内卷"政策的效果。从行业角度看，综合整治"内卷式"竞争，价格看似会有所回稳。但尹艳林 认为，当前宏观经济环境已不同于供给侧结构性改革时期，当时主要问题是供 ...

文 | 招商宏观张静静团队 核心观点 国内方面，高频数据显示Q4有效需求不足持续挤压企业盈利空间。人民币升值或暂时接近到位，此前年底结汇需求集中释放使人民 币汇率明显升值，但央行或开始有意控制汇率升值幅度，中间价破7仍需企业套保率及跨境人民币结算占比进一步提升，预计明年中 后期大概率时机成熟。 海外方面，日本央行议息会议后，近期植田和男称正稳步接近2%通胀目标，将继续加息。美国Q3经济增速超预期，其中过半为个人 消费支出项所贡献，抵押贷款利率的高位回落对地产的传导仍有时滞，但是能显著影响当期消费。 资产方面，A股权益市场配置行情延续，但短期波动或将加剧。过去两周处于海外市场交易清淡期，但静极思动，新年过后外部扰 动或将加大。目前美元兑日元仍高于155，一旦日本央行干预汇市或美联储降息预期降温，海外市场仍将对国内权益资产造成阶段扰 动。 国内方面， 1）高频数据显示2025年四季度以来有效需求不足正在持续挤压企业盈利空间，导致"以价换量"边际效应锐减。11月当月 工业企业利润增速仍在负区间运行，并且跌幅较上月再度扩大了7.6个百分点。2）人民币升值或暂时接近到位。临近年底结汇需求 集中释放推动人民币汇率明显升值 ...

12月19日至21日，"我的钢铁"年会在上海召开。 徐高指出，今年12月中央经济工作会议明确提出"推动投资止跌回稳，优化地方政府专项债务管理"，这 与去年"提高投资效率"的提法形成对比。如果要求"提高投资效益"，那么可能制约投资规模的扩张。对 于今年"推动投资止跌回稳"这一表述，他认为是一个非常积极的信号。 对于中国经济前景，徐高预计2025年GDP增速将达到5%。2026年是"十五五"开局之年，为了迎接开门 红，他预计政府会放宽资金支出、增加投资，政府投资会是2026年经济稳增长的关键抓手。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 与此同时，未来如何进一步刺激消费增长亦为论坛上专家的热议话题。 国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦表示，在经历了三十多年的高速增长后，中国经济从2010年一季度 开始由高速逐步转向中速。这一变化的背景在于，经济增长的主要矛盾已从供给约束转向需求约束。 刘世锦认为，需求不足主要不是投资和出口不足，而是消费不足。从国际比较看，我国消费率处于全球 偏低水平。从发展阶段看，我国当前消费率也低于发达经济体在相同发展阶段时的水平。扩大消费要把 注意力和重点放到解决终端需求中消费比重结构性偏低这个源头性问题。 ...

中信证券首席经济学家 明明 在演讲中，明明围绕当前中国经济面临的核心矛盾——有效需求不足展开深入分析，指出这一问题的复 杂性决定了其无法通过单一的总量政策简单解决，并分别从消费、资产价格与资本市场、投资等层面进 行了剖析。 在明明看来，在消费层面，以旧换新等补贴政策对拉动耐用品消费发挥了作用，但受产品更新周期限 制，其效应可能递减。因此，政策方向可从"投资于物"转向"投资于人"，如补贴从耐用品转向一些服务 商品，包括一些服务业基础设施投资。另外，在收入补贴方面，他认为今年的生育和学前教育补贴政策 是很好的尝试，并期待在"十五五"期间，这些惠民政策的补贴力度和覆盖范围能进一步扩大。 关于资产价格与资本市场，提升居民财产性收入是关键。明明谈到，房地产市场的见底取决于高库存的 出清速度，这需要货币、财政等多项政策工具协同发力。另外，资本市场今年虽表现良好，但能否形 成"长牛"或"慢牛"，根本上取决于企业盈利的持续改善，而这又有赖于宏观经济增长的复苏速度和质 量。资本市场需从"估值提升"转向"盈利支撑"，通过改革（引导长期资金、平衡投融资功能）实现可持 续"慢牛"，提升居民财产性收入。 在投资与财政层面，他指出当前正 ...

Production - In November 2025, the industrial added value of large-scale industries grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The mining industry recorded a growth of 6.3%, outperforming manufacturing at 4.6% and water, electricity, and gas at 4.3%, indicating ongoing reliance on traditional resource sectors[12] - The sales rate of industrial products fell to 96.5%, reflecting a misalignment between production expansion and end demand[13] Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 increased by 1.3% year-on-year, marking a decline of 1.6 percentage points from October, the lowest monthly growth since December 2022[2] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, indicating a shift towards service-oriented consumption[16] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.7%, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales, highlighting the impact of digital consumption trends[17] Investment - From January to November 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6%, with a widening decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous period[5] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative decline of 15.9%, with housing sales area and sales amount both decreasing by 7.8% and 11.1% respectively, continuing a negative growth trend for 43 months[25] - Manufacturing investment fell by 0.8 percentage points to 1.9%, with a monthly decline of 4.5%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector[24] Economic Outlook - The economic data for November indicates that insufficient effective demand remains the primary contradiction in the economy, opening up further space for policy support[27] - Future policies to boost domestic demand are expected to focus on enhancing employment, increasing residents' income, and improving social security[28]

我的年终经济观察，今天是第三篇。前两篇分别谈了经济增长的大逻辑和与消费相关的问题。今天谈谈 办好自己的事与转变发展方式的问题。 最大的确定性就是集中精力办好自己的事 "集中力量办好自己的事"是中国这些年坚持的一个基本方略，即不管外部环境怎样变化，始终坚持把国 家和民族发展放在自己力量的基点上，把命运牢牢掌握在自己手中。 "面对不确定性，最大的确定性就是集中精力办好自己的事。" 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：秦朔朋友圈 这几十年，我们一直坚持踏踏实实发展制造业，制造竞争力终于成了中国经济的牢固底盘，也印证了果 来自因、技不压身、滴水穿石等道理。 今年中美之间有五轮经贸谈判。前一段听汇丰环球投资研究大中华区首席经济学家刘晶演讲，她研究了 今年4月2日美国发起"对等关税"后所有国家的反应，发现中国应该是唯一一个能形成有效反制的国家。 相比其他一些被加征关税的制造业国家，目前中国对美出口的关税反而有了一些优势。 也因此，沿海有些地方最近出现了出海企业又回流的现象。 在我看来，中国的这种反制力与其说是谈出来的，不如说是长期集中精力干出来的。中国今年的贸易出 口顺差已突破 ...

Economic Overview - Effective demand remains significantly insufficient, with industrial added value in November increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 4.9% in the previous period[3] - Retail sales growth has notably slowed to 1.3% year-on-year, down from 2.9% previously[3] - Fixed asset investment year-on-year remains stable at approximately -11%, consistent with the previous value of -11.2%[5] Sector Performance - High-tech industry added value rose by 8.4% year-on-year, up from 7.2% previously[4] - Exports showed resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, recovering from a decline of 1.1%[3] - Real estate sales area decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, an improvement from a 18.6% decline previously, while sales revenue fell by 24.7%, worsening from a 24.1% decline[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in November decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment down by 4.5% and real estate investment down by 30.1%[5] - The construction area for new projects fell by 27.6% year-on-year, while the area under construction dropped by 40%[5] - The total investment in fixed assets for the first 11 months of the year showed a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, with non-real estate fixed asset investment increasing by 0.8%[5] Policy Implications - The central economic work conference highlighted the need to address the "strong supply and weak demand" contradiction and to stimulate investment and consumption[7] - The potential for policy measures to strengthen demand has opened up following the release of November's economic data[7]

Economic Overview - The economic data for November indicates a significant lack of effective demand, with industrial added value year-on-year at 4.8%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, primarily due to base effects [1][5][21] - The demand side shows a clear divergence, with export growth rebounding while domestic demand remains weak: fixed asset investment year-on-year is approximately flat at -11%, real estate sales area decline has slightly narrowed, but sales revenue decline has widened, and retail sales growth has significantly slowed to 1.3% year-on-year [1][5][21] Industrial Performance - The seasonally adjusted industrial added value month-on-month is 0.44%, higher than October and roughly in line with the average for the previous ten months, indicating little change in the real intensity of industrial production [17][24] - High-tech industries saw a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, leading the growth, with significant production increases in integrated circuits and industrial robots; however, production of smartphones and solar cells experienced negative year-on-year growth [8][25][23] Retail Sales - The seasonally adjusted retail sales month-on-month decreased by 0.42%, marking the lowest point of the year; the highest absolute growth was in communication equipment at 20.6% year-on-year, while durable goods like home appliances and automobiles showed the lowest growth due to high base effects and reduced promotional efforts [2][11][26] Fixed Asset Investment - The seasonally adjusted fixed asset investment month-on-month decreased by 1.03%, slightly better than the previous value of -1.5%, with a year-on-year decline of 11.1%, consistent with the previous value [3][12][27] - Manufacturing investment saw a narrowing decline, while real estate investment's decline widened; infrastructure investment remained relatively unchanged [3][12][27] Real Estate Sector - Real estate-related indicators remain at low levels, with a slight narrowing in the decline of sales area, but an expansion in the decline of sales revenue; new construction area also saw a slight narrowing in decline, while construction area decline expanded [4][14][29] - The price index for new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, slightly better than October's 0.5% decline, but still at a high point for the year [4][14][29] GDP and Economic Policy - The actual GDP index simulated from industrial added value and service production index year-on-year was 4.31%, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.02% for the first eleven months [15][30] - The latest central economic work conference highlighted the need to address the prominent contradiction of strong supply and weak demand, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing investment and boosting consumption [20][30]

Economic Overview - The economic data for November indicates a significant lack of effective demand, with supply remaining relatively stable. Industrial added value year-on-year is at 4.8%, slightly down from the previous value of 4.9%, primarily due to base effects. The demand side shows a clear divergence, with export growth rebounding while domestic demand remains weak. Fixed asset investment year-on-year is approximately -11%, consistent with previous values. Real estate sales area has seen a slight narrowing in decline, but sales revenue has expanded in its year-on-year decline. Retail sales have significantly slowed to 1.3% year-on-year [1][5][6]. Industrial Production - The seasonally adjusted month-on-month industrial added value is 0.44%, higher than October and roughly in line with the average of the previous ten months, indicating little change in the real intensity of industrial production. High-tech industries have seen a year-on-year added value growth of 8.4%, with significant production increases in integrated circuits and industrial robots. However, smartphone and solar cell production have experienced negative year-on-year growth, while construction materials like crude steel and cement also show negative growth [8][10][12]. Retail Sales - The seasonally adjusted month-on-month retail sales have decreased by 0.42%, marking the lowest point of the year. Among major categories, the highest absolute growth is in communication equipment at 20.6% year-on-year. However, durable consumer goods such as home appliances and automobiles show the lowest growth due to high base effects and reduced promotional efforts [11][12]. Fixed Asset Investment - The seasonally adjusted month-on-month fixed asset investment is -1.03%, slightly better than the previous value of -1.5%. Year-on-year, it stands at -11.1%, consistent with the previous value. Manufacturing investment has seen a slight narrowing in decline, while real estate investment has expanded its decline. Infrastructure investment remains relatively unchanged. The issuance of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools is expected to support some projects in manufacturing and infrastructure, but current data does not yet reflect this impact [12][13][16]. Real Estate Market - Real estate-related indicators remain at low levels. The sales area has seen a slight narrowing in decline, but the sales revenue decline has expanded. New construction area has also seen a slight narrowing in decline, while construction area has expanded its decline. The price index for new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities has decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, slightly better than October's 0.5% decline, but still among the highest declines of the year [16][17]. GDP Simulation - The simulated actual GDP index based on industrial added value and service production index year-on-year is approximately 4.22%. The cumulative actual GDP year-on-year for the first eleven months stands at 5.02%. The economic data indicates strong resilience in exports, while the main weaknesses lie in domestic demand, particularly in consumption, fixed investment, and real estate [4][17].

发布时间：2025-12-11 证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《全球流动性处于何种水平？---数量 篇》 - 2025.12.8 宏观研究 目录 鲜菜鲜果涨价支撑食品改善，服务价格相对稳固 核心观点 CPI 同比增速连续三个月呈现修复态势，虽然存在基数走低的影 响，但剔除基数效应，从两年复合增速来看，CPI 同比增速仍呈现边 际改善。（1）从结构来看，食品项价格边际改善明显，成为当月 CPI 价格改善的主要原因，其中，鲜菜和鲜果是主要贡献，两个分项对当 月食品项价格同比增速改善贡献度达到 54.29%，背后是低温阴雨+冷 冻灾害影响，短期供应不足，推升价格上涨，与此同时，因牛羊存栏 量下滑，出栏供给偏紧，2025 年下半年供给进入收缩通道，牛羊肉价 格同比增速保持稳定上涨；（2）从非食品分项价格来看，服务消费价 格保持相对坚挺，如教育文化和娱乐、医疗保健、家庭服务、 ...