此外，摩根士丹利发表研报称，A股市场日均成交额(ADT)持续高企，目前对全年ADT预测更具信心， 将2025年ADT预测上调53%至1.53万亿元人民币，并预测2026及2027年ADT将保持每年5%至6%的按年 增长。相应将所覆盖中资券商2025至2027年各年盈利预测平均上调25%、23%及20%， 智通财经APP获悉，中资券商股集体下跌，截至发稿，中州证券(01375)跌4.81%，报2.57港元；招商证 券(06099)跌4.47%，报15.82港元；光大证券(06178)跌3.91%，报10.33港元；中信建投证券(06066)跌 3.75%，报12.85港元。 中泰证券发布研报称，美联储降息预期已被市场充分交易，此次结果并未超预期，因而在落地后引发投 资者情绪的回落，风险偏好短期有所降温。国泰海通证券则表示，最近一个月非银板块跑输指数。但该 行认为这一现象主要是交易因素影响，非银基本面持续向好。随着三季度市场上涨叠加成交量放大，权 益投资及证券经纪业务持续改善，三季度业绩有望实现同比和环比高增。 ...

Group 1 - Global stock funds experienced a net outflow of $3.06 billion for the first time in five weeks, driven by investors taking profits and reducing risk exposure [1] - The outflow was primarily from U.S. stock funds, which saw a net sell-off of $10.44 billion, the highest in five weeks [3] - In contrast, European and Asian funds recorded net inflows of $3.77 billion and $1.87 billion, respectively [3] Group 2 - Global bond funds saw a net inflow of approximately $18.18 billion, marking the 21st consecutive week of inflows [7] - Short-term bond funds had a net inflow of $3.47 billion, the highest since August 13 [7] - High-yield bond funds and euro-denominated bond funds attracted inflows of $3.08 billion and $1.66 billion, respectively [7] Group 3 - Investors sought safety by pouring $60.79 billion into money market funds, the highest weekly inflow since August 6 [10] - Gold and precious metals funds recorded a net inflow of $1.67 billion, achieving inflows in 15 out of the past 16 weeks [10] - Emerging market equity funds saw a net inflow of $2.18 billion, reaching a nine-week high [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Index futures, coking coal, coke, rubber [1][8][10] - Sideways pattern: Treasury bonds, gold, industrial silicon, steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore), soda ash, float glass, crude oil, methanol, polyolefins, cotton [1][4][6][8][10] - Bearish bias: Non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, nickel), lithium carbonate [4] - Bullish pattern for silver [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has entered an observation period, and commodities may return to fundamental pricing. The risk appetite has cooled, but the long - term logic of anti - involution driving profit repair remains unchanged for A - shares, and the downside risk of the index is relatively controllable. For bonds, the macro - face turnaround needs further confirmation, and the short - term market fluctuates sharply. For precious metals, the short - term dollar rebound affects gold, but the long - term bullish logic for silver remains. For non - ferrous metals, although there are short - term impacts such as tariffs, the medium - to - long - term supply pattern varies by metal. For energy and chemical products, the supply and demand and market sentiment vary, with some facing supply - side constraints and others with demand - side uncertainties. For steel and building materials, the market has returned to fundamental pricing, and the supply - demand contradictions are different for each product. For agricultural products, the supply and demand situation affects the price trends, with some facing weakening upward momentum and others having certain demand support [1][4][6][8][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Futures General - The market has shifted to an observation period, and commodities may return to fundamental pricing [1] Index Futures - Risk appetite has cooled, but the long - term logic of anti - involution driving profit repair for A - shares remains unchanged. The A - share profit bottom is emerging, and the market trading is still active. The downside risk of the index is relatively controllable [1] Treasury Bonds - The latest PMI data is below expectations, and the market optimism has weakened. The central bank has a net withdrawal in the open market, and the short - term market fluctuates sharply. The upward movement of the bond market needs further confirmation, and short - duration bonds perform relatively stably [1] Precious Metals - Gold: The US economy is cooling moderately, the Fed is not likely to cut interest rates in the short term, and the short - term dollar rebound drags down the gold price. However, the long - term bullish logic remains. - Silver: Although affected by short - term negative factors, the long - term bullish pattern remains, and the gold - silver ratio still has room for repair [4] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Trump's copper tariff measures have short - term impacts, but the medium - to - long - term supply of the mining end is still tight, and the COMEX - LME copper premium is expected to be quickly repaired. - Aluminum: The market has differences on the medium - term supply situation. The short - term price is affected by emotions, and the Shanghai aluminum has certain support below. - Nickel: The nickel market remains in an oversupply pattern, and the price is in a low - level sideways range [4] Energy and Chemical Products - Lithium carbonate: The fundamentals are still loose, but the supply - demand structure has marginally improved, and the price may stop falling and move sideways. - Industrial silicon: The market furnace - opening number has slightly increased, and the short - term upward momentum is limited under the short - term position limit. - Crude oil: There are uncertainties in the market before the sanctions are implemented, and the risk premium has increased. - Methanol: The production has increased, and if the production and arrival volume continue to rise in early August, the price may weaken. - Polyolefins: The demand off - season is coming to an end, and the price trend in August and September depends on demand. The tariff trend in early August is crucial [4][6][8][10] Steel and Building Materials - Rebar: The market has returned to fundamental pricing, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price may be weakly sideways. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand contradiction accumulates slowly, and the price may be weakly sideways after a rapid decline. - Iron ore: The anti - involution expectation trading is basically over, and it follows the sector's fluctuations. - Soda ash: The fundamental excess pattern remains, and the price is weakly sideways. - Float glass: The fundamentals are better than soda ash, but the demand is affected by the real - estate cycle, and the price is in a sideways pattern [6][8] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The supply - demand upward momentum has weakened, and the price is weakly running. - Rubber: The supply - demand is expected to increase, the short - term contradiction is not prominent, and the price downward driving force has weakened [10]