风险均衡策略

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基于风险因子择时的动态全天候思路
Orient Securities· 2025-08-18 13:45
Group 1 - The classic all-weather strategy faces localization challenges in China, including unstable mapping between macro cycles and assets, the debate over inflation and growth parity, and limitations in the four-quadrant framework [4][8][16] - The core of the all-weather strategy is risk factor hedging, which includes hedging against growth risk with bonds and identifying key risk factors that have historically led to simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds [4][17][23] - Historical instances of simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds have been linked to three main risk factors: high inflation, liquidity tightening, and currency depreciation [23][26][29] Group 2 - A dynamic all-weather strategy based on risk factors can be constructed by either combining subjective views with quantitative models or by implementing a purely dynamic approach without subjective views [38][39] - The dynamic all-weather strategy emphasizes risk timing rather than return timing, focusing on the importance of risk factors in determining asset allocation [4][48] - The performance of the dynamic all-weather strategy has shown to be superior to traditional all-weather strategies, with annualized returns of 6.0% compared to 5.3% for the traditional approach [53]
风险均衡策略新思路:全天候策略需要择时吗
Orient Securities· 2025-07-09 08:42
Group 1 - The report argues that the all-weather strategy does require timing, contrary to common belief, as it relies on accurately measuring and fully hedging all risk factors [7][8][22] - It highlights that risk is time-varying and difficult to measure, which significantly impacts the effectiveness of strategies [8][22] - The report suggests that a simple risk parity strategy combined with timing could serve as a practical alternative to the all-weather strategy, focusing on hedging the most common risk factors in the current market [3][4][22] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that bond risk changes with interest rate levels, indicating that different measurement methods yield varying results for bond risk [10][12] - It notes that equity risk is correlated with economic cycles, with fluctuations in equity markets reflecting changes in GDP growth rates [13][14] - The report discusses the importance of adjusting rebalancing frequency, suggesting that higher frequency rebalancing can lead to better performance during volatile market conditions [23][30] Group 3 - The report identifies that not all risks can be fully hedged, and it is not necessary to do so for effective risk management [33][43] - It points out that currency risk should be considered separately due to the increasing relevance of overseas investments and transactions [37] - The report also highlights the need to differentiate between credit risk and equity risk, as their behaviors can be inversely related in domestic markets [38][40]