资产配置 | 动态跟踪 资产配置策略中低波分化，行业策略转向 ——资产配置模型月报 202512 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 03 日 | 王晶 | 执业证书编号：S0860510120030 | | --- | --- | | | wangjing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63325888*6072 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | 资产配置不仅仅是风险分散：——主动型 | 2025-11-27 | | --- | --- | | 资产配置新思路 | | | 全天候模型仓位平稳，行业策略推荐科技/ | 2025-11-03 | | 有色/新能源等板块：——资产配置模型月 | | | 报 202511 | | | 关注权益和商品机会：——资产配置月报 | 2025-11-01 | | 202511 | | | 大类资产仓位平稳，行业策略推荐有色/科 | 2025-10-11 | | 技等板块：——资产配置模型月报 202510 | | | 大类资产风险可控，短期关注交易特征： | 2025-09-29 | | ——"2+1 ...

Group 1 - The report identifies that the stock-bond seesaw effect is more common than both stocks and bonds being strong or weak simultaneously, with a higher probability of returning to the seesaw state after periods of dual strength or weakness [3][8]. - Growth expectations drive the stock-bond seesaw, while liquidity expectations can terminate it. Weak growth expectations lead to weak stocks and strong bonds, while strong growth expectations can result in strong stocks and weak bonds [3][8]. - A four-quadrant framework based on growth and interest rate expectations can be constructed to illustrate the relative relationship between stocks and bonds, showing how these expectations influence market dynamics [3][8]. Group 2 - The report suggests that when the stock-bond seesaw is present, there are strong price signals within equity sectors, allowing for effective industry strategies to be constructed [3][8]. - Current liquidity expectations are stable, indicating a foundation for a slow bull market, and the report continues to recommend a dynamic all-weather strategy under the seesaw market conditions [3][8]. - Historical data shows that fast bull markets are typically accompanied by rising equity volatility, while the current market exhibits stable equity volatility, supporting the slow bull market outlook [3][8]. Group 3 - The report outlines various scenarios following the stock-bond seesaw, including transitions from strong stocks and weak bonds to dual strength, and from weak stocks and strong bonds to dual weakness [21][37]. - The transition from strong stocks and weak bonds to weak stocks and strong bonds is often accompanied by a decline in growth expectations, while the reverse transition typically requires an increase in growth expectations [26][45]. - The report emphasizes that the core factors determining market direction after the seesaw are liquidity expectations and growth expectations, which can lead to different outcomes based on their movements [36][45].