Core Viewpoint - The U.S. national debt has surged to an unprecedented $38 trillion, raising concerns about economic stability and fiscal responsibility, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and halt balance sheet reduction efforts [1][5][14]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time in two months reflects a shift in economic risk balance, prioritizing survival over previous commitments [1][6]. - The U.S. national debt now exceeds 126.8% of GDP, surpassing the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) safety threshold of 100% [5][6]. - The annual interest payment on the debt has exceeded $1 trillion, contributing to a cycle of increasing debt as interest payments themselves become new debt [6][14]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The issuance of 10-year Treasury bonds has seen a significant drop in demand, indicating a lack of confidence from foreign investors in U.S. long-term debt [7][8]. - The U.S. dollar index has declined from 109 to 98, reflecting global investor sentiment regarding U.S. fiscal policies [8][12]. Group 3: International Implications - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds while increasing its gold reserves, indicating a strategy of risk hedging amidst U.S. fiscal instability [9][11]. - Other countries, including Japan and the UK, are also reassessing their investments in U.S. debt, highlighting a broader trend of diminishing trust in U.S. fiscal management [12][16]. Group 4: Structural Issues - The interplay between fiscal and monetary policy has created a vicious cycle of debt accumulation, where tax cuts lead to deficits, which in turn necessitate more borrowing and monetary easing [14][16]. - The current situation is likened to a "sandcastle" built on unstable foundations, suggesting that reliance on debt and money printing is unsustainable [16][17].

在风险资产不断刷新高点、市场乐观情绪升温的当下，高盛策略师的一份报告却犹如一盆冷水，提醒投资者不要被表象蒙蔽。 报告指出，尽管近期美国相继与多个贸易伙伴达成协议，使关税政策短期内趋于明朗，市场也暂时摆脱了对经济衰退的焦虑， 但此时掉以轻心，可能正是风险正在堆积的时刻。 值得注意的是，这轮企业债繁荣并非全然脱离基本面。部分大企业现金流强劲、违约概率确实较低，这也在一定程度上支持了 低利差的合理性。但关键问题在于，当前市场风险偏好是否已经超出了合理区间？当风险被系统性压低时，任何一次经济或政 策预期的偏离，都会迅速放大其冲击效果。 信用利差所释放的"繁荣信号"看似诱人，但高盛的担忧并非杞人忧天。在多重不确定性尚未解除的背景下，继续维持基本的风 险对冲策略，可能是投资者避免下一轮市场巨震的关键防线。资产价格可以暂时脱离基本面运行，但市场周期终将回归常识 ——真正的风险，往往来自看似最"安全"的时刻。 最具警示意义的信号之一，是全球投资级企业债的信用利差——这一衡量企业违约风险的关键指标——已压缩至79个基点，这 是自2007年7月以来的最低水平。历史并未忘记，正是在彼时，全球金融危机的阴云悄然集结。表面看，利差收窄 ...