在房贷市场动用"两房"购买MBS、被市场称为"特朗普QE"之后，特朗普再次把手伸向了更具政治敏感性的领域——信用卡利率。 从试图压低抵押贷款成本，到提出将信用卡利率上限强行设为10%，特朗普政府正在以行政权力，连续介入本应由市场和美联储主导的利率形成机制。 这已不再是零散的政策试探，而是一条清晰的主线： 当美联储不愿、也不能迅速配合降息时，白宫正在绕过央行，直接干预"选民最能感知的利率"。 利率之争的本质：不是通胀，而是选民的月供和账单 从政治经济学角度看，特朗普的出手并不难理解。 在高利率环境下，真正持续制造政治压力的，并非抽象的"联邦基金利率"，而是两项直接进入家庭资产负债表的指标： 房贷利率与信用卡利率 。 对普通选民而言，这两项远比CPI或核心通胀更直观、更具痛感。 在多次公开施压美联储降息未果后，特朗普政府显然已经得出一个判断： 如果无法改变政策利率，那就直接改变利率传导的终点。 房贷干预：一场"准QE"的行政实验 在房贷市场，特朗普政府选择了一条相对"技术性"的路径。 通过指令房利美和房地美购买MBS，白宫的目标并非直接压低无风险利率，而是 对冲美联储缩表所造成的MBS需求缺口 ，压缩抵押贷款与国 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese capital market is at a historical turning point, transitioning from scale expansion to functional restructuring, with the current A-share market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan but still below 80% of GDP, compared to much higher ratios in the US, Japan, and India [1][8] - Experts emphasize the need for a shift in perception regarding the capital market's role, advocating for it to be seen as an incubator for innovation rather than merely a financing tool [2][3] Group 1: Market Function and Innovation - The core function of the capital market should be to incentivize innovators, requiring a cultural environment that tolerates failure and supports long-term scientific thought accumulation [2][3] - If the market capitalization reaches 200 trillion yuan by 2030, it could drive trillions in new consumption, highlighting the potential for significant economic impact [2][3] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Performance - Recent trends show a disconnect between economic data and stock market performance, indicating a fundamental change in market pricing logic influenced by technological revolutions and global monetary restructuring [3][4] - The recovery of market confidence has occurred in three phases: policy shifts, corporate innovation resilience, and global capital reallocation [4][5] Group 3: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - Current average daily trading volume of 2.2 trillion yuan is insufficient to support market highs, suggesting a need for increased liquidity through institutional investment and potential reforms like T+0 trading [5][6] - The comparison of pension fund equity allocation in various countries reveals significant room for growth in China's long-term capital market participation [5][6] Group 4: Institutional Reforms and Challenges - Proposals for establishing a stock trading board in Macau and creating a "rescue fund" for distressed companies highlight the need for innovative solutions to support market participants [7][8] - Experts call for a cultural shift towards risk management and a legal framework that enhances market transparency and accountability [7][8] Group 5: Future Development Path - The consensus among experts is that through restructuring market functions, improving capital supply, and advancing institutional innovation, the Chinese capital market can achieve a historic leap from 100 trillion to 200 trillion yuan [8]

在风险资产不断刷新高点、市场乐观情绪升温的当下，高盛策略师的一份报告却犹如一盆冷水，提醒投资者不要被表象蒙蔽。 报告指出，尽管近期美国相继与多个贸易伙伴达成协议，使关税政策短期内趋于明朗，市场也暂时摆脱了对经济衰退的焦虑， 但此时掉以轻心，可能正是风险正在堆积的时刻。 值得注意的是，这轮企业债繁荣并非全然脱离基本面。部分大企业现金流强劲、违约概率确实较低，这也在一定程度上支持了 低利差的合理性。但关键问题在于，当前市场风险偏好是否已经超出了合理区间？当风险被系统性压低时，任何一次经济或政 策预期的偏离，都会迅速放大其冲击效果。 信用利差所释放的"繁荣信号"看似诱人，但高盛的担忧并非杞人忧天。在多重不确定性尚未解除的背景下，继续维持基本的风 险对冲策略，可能是投资者避免下一轮市场巨震的关键防线。资产价格可以暂时脱离基本面运行，但市场周期终将回归常识 ——真正的风险，往往来自看似最"安全"的时刻。 最具警示意义的信号之一，是全球投资级企业债的信用利差——这一衡量企业违约风险的关键指标——已压缩至79个基点，这 是自2007年7月以来的最低水平。历史并未忘记，正是在彼时，全球金融危机的阴云悄然集结。表面看，利差收窄 ...