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【招银研究|行业点评】“双节”消费观察:自驾出行热度续升,旅游客单环比改善
招商银行研究· 2025-10-10 08:57
假日消费是观测经济活力的重要窗口期,我们对国庆中秋长假的消费数据简评如下。 一、出行:人员流动活跃,自驾热度上涨,国际航线表现亮眼 据交通运输部,今年国庆中秋假期期间(10月1日至10月8日),全社会跨区域人员流动量达24.32亿人次,日 均3.04亿人次,同比增长6.2%,较2019年同期增长30.8%。节前,交通运输部预计跨区域人员流动量为23.6亿 人次,实际出行表现略超预期,创下历史同期新高。 分出行方式看, 1)自驾出行的客运量同比增幅超过民航、铁路等出行方式,自驾周边游显现出更高热度。 国庆中秋假期期 间 , 非 营 业 性 小 客 车 / 水 运 / 民 航 / 营 业 性 公 路 / 铁 路 的 日 均 客 运 量 较 2024 年 同 期 分 别 增 长 7.1%/4.2%/3.4%/2.9%/2.6%。相比过往节假日,高速公路及普通国省道非营业性小客车的日均客流同比增速表 现更为突出。 资 料 来 源 : 交 通 运 输 部 , 招 商 银 行 研 究 院 图1:国庆中秋假期各类出行方式日均客运量相比2024/2019年同期的增速 注 : 公 路 - 非 营 业 性 包 含 高 速 公 路 ...
新闻1+1|扩大服务消费,该从哪些关键点入手?
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-09-17 22:20
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a series of policies aimed at expanding service consumption, which is seen as a key driver for high-quality economic development in the country [1] Group 1: Service Consumption Expansion - Service consumption is defined as the exchange of money for intangible products, contrasting with tangible goods consumption [2] - The current focus on expanding service consumption aligns with China's development stage, as service consumption typically becomes dominant when GDP per capita exceeds $15,000 [2] - China's per capita GDP is currently around $13,000, with service consumption growth outpacing that of goods consumption in recent months [2] Group 2: Impact of School Holidays on Service Consumption - The introduction of spring and autumn breaks for students is expected to enhance service consumption by providing more leisure time for families [3] - The effectiveness of this policy depends on whether parents also have time off, which will determine its impact on service consumption growth [3] Group 3: New Market Opportunities - Emerging consumption trends, such as "Village BA" and "Su Chao," indicate new market opportunities driven by quality content and innovative service offerings [4] - The interaction between new demand and supply is crucial, as quality content and innovative experiences can significantly enhance consumer engagement [4] Group 4: Challenges in Service Consumption - Despite the growth in service consumption, the overall consumption-to-GDP ratio in China remains low, indicating a need for improvement [6] - Addressing this issue requires coordinated efforts on both the supply and demand sides, particularly by enhancing public services and social security for low-income groups [6]
7月商品销售稳步增长
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-08-15 23:19
Economic Overview - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The overall service retail sales remained stable, with a growth of 5.2% from January to July, consistent with the previous six months [1] - The combined retail sales of goods and services for the first seven months showed a preliminary growth of around 5% [1] Consumer Spending Insights - In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, an increase of 7.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - The consumption expansion trend remains unchanged, supported by special actions to boost consumption [2] Retail Performance - In July, the retail sales of goods reached 34,276 billion yuan, growing by 4.0%, while catering revenue was 4,504 billion yuan, increasing by 1.1% [5] - The "trade-in" policy has positively impacted sales, with significant growth in categories such as home appliances (28.7%), cultural and office supplies (13.8%), furniture (20.6%), and communication equipment (14.9%) [5] - Online retail sales for the first seven months totaled 86,835 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [5] Service Consumption Trends - July saw a strong increase in service consumption, particularly in cultural tourism, information services, and digital entertainment [8] - The summer tourism season has led to a 5.5% increase in the production index of transportation, storage, and postal services [9] - The popularity of sports events has significantly boosted local economies, with ticket sales driving related sectors such as dining, transportation, and accommodation [9] Emerging Consumption Patterns - New consumption trends are emerging, with a notable increase in demand for cultural, sports, and entertainment products, reflected in the growth of retail sales in these categories [6] - The search volume for leisure activities has surged, indicating a growing interest in experiences such as beauty services and indoor entertainment [10] - The rise of new consumption modes, including personalized and diversified spending, is becoming more prominent [12] Future Outlook - The service consumption sector is expected to continue growing, with the proportion of service consumption in total consumption increasing [12] - As GDP per capita approaches 1.5 million USD, a shift from goods to service consumption is anticipated, indicating significant growth potential in the service sector [11]
黑龙江省商品消费热度上升
Ren Min Wang· 2025-08-05 01:50
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in consumer demand for home appliances in Heilongjiang Province due to sustained high temperatures since late June, leading to a surge in sales across various categories [1] - In the first half of the year, commodity consumption in Heilongjiang Province grew by 10.4% year-on-year, with daily household appliances sales skyrocketing by 95.3% [1] - Retail sales of communication equipment and home audio-visual devices saw year-on-year increases of 84.7% and 39% respectively, while offline comprehensive retail sales rose by 4.7% and online retail sales surged by 192.8% [1] Group 2 - The article notes a strong consumer response to policies promoting the replacement of old appliances and vehicles, indicating a trend towards large-scale equipment updates and trade-in programs [1] - The Heilongjiang tax authorities are actively promoting tax policies related to the replacement of old appliances and new energy vehicles through various platforms, ensuring that businesses understand and benefit from these policies [1] - The focus on household appliances and new energy vehicles aims to streamline tax processes and enhance financial management for businesses, ensuring that consumers receive the benefits of these policies directly [1]
中国是一个显而易见被低估了的服务消费大国!|东哥笔记
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-29 13:05
Core Insights - The article argues that China is significantly undervalued as a service consumption powerhouse, with a notable disparity in service pricing compared to the United States [2][13] Group 1: Consumption Comparison - In the first half of 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods in the U.S. reached $420.15 billion, while China's was $341.68 billion, making China's figure 81.32% of the U.S. total [3] - The U.S. service consumption total is projected to reach $13.6 trillion in 2024, accounting for 69% of total consumption and 67% of GDP [4] - China's service consumption total is only $2.15 trillion, representing 46% of total consumption and 39%-40% of GDP, indicating a significant gap in service consumption scale [4] Group 2: Sector-Specific Analysis - The healthcare sector shows the most pronounced difference, with U.S. per capita healthcare spending at $9,900 compared to China's $350, a 28-fold difference despite similar life expectancy [4][6] - Price comparisons for medical services reveal that U.S. costs are substantially higher, with CT scans costing $5,000 in the U.S. versus $120-$120 in China, a difference of 90-233 times [5] - In the e-commerce sector, China's express delivery service prices are only one-seventh of those in the U.S., with 2024 express delivery volume in China reaching 175.08 billion packages, a 21.5% increase [7] Group 3: Dining and Hospitality - In the food delivery sector, China's average order frequency is double that of the U.S., with a per capita annual order volume of 20.7 compared to 12 in the U.S. [8] - The hotel industry in China has expanded significantly, with 348,717 hotels and a total of 21.5 million rooms, compared to approximately 85,000 hotels and 4.43 million rooms in the U.S. [11][12] - Average daily rates (ADR) for hotels in China are approximately $40, while in the U.S. they are around $165, indicating a substantial price difference [12] Group 4: Overall Consumption Trends - The article concludes that the perception of Chinese consumers as not enjoying services is misleading; rather, the low pricing of services in China contributes to the underestimation of its service consumption potential [13]
商务部:“十五五”期间将继续减少服务消费领域限制性措施
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-07-18 08:41
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to continue reducing restrictive measures in the service consumption sector during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, building on the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumer Market - China's retail sales of consumer goods increased from 39.2 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [1] - In absolute terms, China's retail sales in 2022 were approximately 80% of the United States; however, in terms of purchasing power, China's retail sales exceeded that of the U.S., being 1.6 times greater according to World Bank data [1] Group 2: Service Consumption Trends - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," service consumption in China entered a rapid growth phase, with annual growth in residents' service consumption expenditure projected at 9.6% from 2020 to 2024 [1] - The primary challenge during this phase is a supply-side shortage, particularly in high-quality service offerings [1] Group 3: Policy Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce plans to address the shortage of high-quality services through both external and internal measures, including expanding pilot programs in sectors like healthcare and reducing restrictive measures in service consumption [1] - The government intends to convert effective and popular policies from the "14th Five-Year Plan" into long-term, sustainable policies while introducing targeted measures to stimulate commodity consumption and unleash service consumption potential [2]
商务部部长王文涛:今年全年社零将超过50万亿元
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-18 06:27
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese consumption market is expected to maintain its position as the world's second-largest, with retail sales projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan in 2023, reflecting a robust growth trajectory during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][4]. Group 1: Market Expansion - The scale of the market is expanding, with retail sales expected to grow from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, representing an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [1]. - China's retail sales are approximately 80% of the United States in absolute terms, but in terms of purchasing power, they exceed the U.S. by 60% [1]. Group 2: Quality Improvement - Quality consumption is becoming more prevalent, with 2.9 trillion yuan in sales driven by trade-in programs benefiting around 400 million people [2]. - Service consumption is growing rapidly, with an average annual increase of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024, outpacing goods consumption [2]. Group 3: New Consumption Trends - New consumption models are emerging, including digital consumption and quality e-commerce, supported by policies promoting innovation in the retail sector [3]. - The trade-in policy has significantly boosted smart home product consumption [3]. Group 4: Open Market Dynamics - The Chinese market is increasingly integrating with international markets, with a cumulative import of consumer goods reaching 7.4 trillion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [3]. - The number of countries with visa exemptions is expanding, and the tax refund policy for outbound tourists has been optimized, leading to a projected total expenditure of 94.2 billion USD by inbound tourists in 2024, a 77.8% increase [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The long-term fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain strong, with significant potential and resilience in the consumption market [4]. - The government plans to convert successful policies from the 14th Five-Year Plan into long-term measures while preparing targeted actions to stimulate consumption and enhance domestic demand [4].
“十四五”期间居民服务性消费年均增长9.6%
news flash· 2025-07-18 02:54
Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's service consumption is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 9.6%, outpacing goods consumption [1] - Cumulative imports of consumer goods are projected to reach 7.4 trillion yuan from 2021 to 2024, highlighting China's significant contribution to global market growth [1] - The "Buy in China" initiative and optimized tax refund policies for outbound tourists are expected to boost inbound tourist spending to 94.2 billion USD in 2024, representing a 77.8% increase [1] Group 1 - The average annual growth rate of service consumption is 9.6% from 2021 to 2024 [1] - Cumulative imports of consumer goods are estimated at 7.4 trillion yuan during the same period [1] - The increase in inbound tourist spending is driven by the "Buy in China" initiative [1] Group 2 - The growth in service consumption is faster than that of goods consumption [1] - The "Buy in China" campaign aims to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese products to international visitors [1] - The expected total spending by inbound tourists in 2024 is 94.2 billion USD, marking a significant increase [1]
促消费进入新阶段,18万亿服务消费潜能如何进一步释放?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 08:20
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting consumption, particularly in the service sector, as a key economic strategy to adapt to changing consumer behavior and external uncertainties [1][3][5]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - In June, the People's Bank of China and other ministries issued guidelines to support consumption, emphasizing service consumption in areas like home services, elderly care, and cultural tourism [1]. - A new policy was introduced to provide 500 billion yuan in loans aimed at enhancing service consumption and supporting the elderly care sector, effective until the end of 2027 [9]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - In the first five months of 2024, retail sales of goods grew by 5.1% year-on-year, while service retail sales showed a slower growth of 5.2%, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [1][3]. - The average per capita service consumption expenditure in China is projected to reach 13,000 yuan in 2024, translating to a total service consumption expenditure of 18.3 trillion yuan nationwide [1]. Group 3: Economic Context - Analysts suggest that as the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" consumption subsidy policy diminishes, service consumption will become the primary driver for consumption growth in the latter half of the year [3]. - China's per capita GDP has surpassed 13,000 USD, indicating a transition towards a service-oriented consumption structure, similar to trends observed in developed countries [5][6]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the growth in service consumption, there remains a significant gap compared to developed nations, with service consumption accounting for only 45.2% of total consumption in China, compared to 54.3% in the US and South Korea [6]. - Factors limiting service consumption include disposable income levels and social security systems, suggesting that improvements in these areas could enhance consumer confidence and spending [7][8]. Group 5: Recommendations for Growth - Analysts recommend increasing disposable income through job creation and enhancing social security, such as raising pension benefits, to stimulate service consumption [7]. - There is a call for targeted policies, such as consumption vouchers and subsidies, to specifically encourage service consumption, which is currently lagging behind goods consumption [8].
金融促消费路线明晰:政策重心转向服务消费和供给端
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-06-26 02:40
Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support to Boost and Expand Consumption" marks a shift in policy focus from goods consumption to service consumption, emphasizing the cultivation of supply rather than merely stimulating demand [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - The "Opinions" outline 19 specific measures across six areas to enhance consumer capacity, cultivate demand, and improve the specialized service capabilities of financial institutions [1] - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area, mentioned 13 times in the document, while goods consumption is referenced only twice [1] Group 2: Economic Context - In May, retail sales of goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year, showing a 2.6 percentage point improvement from December of the previous year, while service sector growth was more subdued at 6.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from December [1] - Analysts suggest that the marginal effects of the old-for-new consumption policy will weaken, indicating limited growth potential for goods consumption, whereas service consumption still holds significant potential [2] Group 3: Supply-Side Focus - The "Opinions" emphasize the importance of optimizing supply alongside expanding demand, aiming for a virtuous cycle in production, distribution, and consumption [2] - Future policies may focus on increasing financing support for consumer enterprises and investing in service consumption infrastructure, including facilities for culture, sports, healthcare, and community services [3] Group 4: Consumer Confidence - The primary constraint on consumer growth is not financial access but rather macroeconomic pressures and cautious consumer sentiment regarding employment and income [4] - The "Opinions" propose measures to support employment and income growth, enhance consumer confidence, and improve financial services for small and micro enterprises [4]