Economic Overview - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The overall service retail sales remained stable, with a growth of 5.2% from January to July, consistent with the previous six months [1] - The combined retail sales of goods and services for the first seven months showed a preliminary growth of around 5% [1] Consumer Spending Insights - In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, an increase of 7.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - The consumption expansion trend remains unchanged, supported by special actions to boost consumption [2] Retail Performance - In July, the retail sales of goods reached 34,276 billion yuan, growing by 4.0%, while catering revenue was 4,504 billion yuan, increasing by 1.1% [5] - The "trade-in" policy has positively impacted sales, with significant growth in categories such as home appliances (28.7%), cultural and office supplies (13.8%), furniture (20.6%), and communication equipment (14.9%) [5] - Online retail sales for the first seven months totaled 86,835 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [5] Service Consumption Trends - July saw a strong increase in service consumption, particularly in cultural tourism, information services, and digital entertainment [8] - The summer tourism season has led to a 5.5% increase in the production index of transportation, storage, and postal services [9] - The popularity of sports events has significantly boosted local economies, with ticket sales driving related sectors such as dining, transportation, and accommodation [9] Emerging Consumption Patterns - New consumption trends are emerging, with a notable increase in demand for cultural, sports, and entertainment products, reflected in the growth of retail sales in these categories [6] - The search volume for leisure activities has surged, indicating a growing interest in experiences such as beauty services and indoor entertainment [10] - The rise of new consumption modes, including personalized and diversified spending, is becoming more prominent [12] Future Outlook - The service consumption sector is expected to continue growing, with the proportion of service consumption in total consumption increasing [12] - As GDP per capita approaches 1.5 million USD, a shift from goods to service consumption is anticipated, indicating significant growth potential in the service sector [11]

Core Insights - The article argues that China is significantly undervalued as a service consumption powerhouse, with a notable disparity in service pricing compared to the United States [2][13] Group 1: Consumption Comparison - In the first half of 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods in the U.S. reached $420.15 billion, while China's was $341.68 billion, making China's figure 81.32% of the U.S. total [3] - The U.S. service consumption total is projected to reach $13.6 trillion in 2024, accounting for 69% of total consumption and 67% of GDP [4] - China's service consumption total is only $2.15 trillion, representing 46% of total consumption and 39%-40% of GDP, indicating a significant gap in service consumption scale [4] Group 2: Sector-Specific Analysis - The healthcare sector shows the most pronounced difference, with U.S. per capita healthcare spending at $9,900 compared to China's $350, a 28-fold difference despite similar life expectancy [4][6] - Price comparisons for medical services reveal that U.S. costs are substantially higher, with CT scans costing $5,000 in the U.S. versus $120-$120 in China, a difference of 90-233 times [5] - In the e-commerce sector, China's express delivery service prices are only one-seventh of those in the U.S., with 2024 express delivery volume in China reaching 175.08 billion packages, a 21.5% increase [7] Group 3: Dining and Hospitality - In the food delivery sector, China's average order frequency is double that of the U.S., with a per capita annual order volume of 20.7 compared to 12 in the U.S. [8] - The hotel industry in China has expanded significantly, with 348,717 hotels and a total of 21.5 million rooms, compared to approximately 85,000 hotels and 4.43 million rooms in the U.S. [11][12] - Average daily rates (ADR) for hotels in China are approximately $40, while in the U.S. they are around $165, indicating a substantial price difference [12] Group 4: Overall Consumption Trends - The article concludes that the perception of Chinese consumers as not enjoying services is misleading; rather, the low pricing of services in China contributes to the underestimation of its service consumption potential [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to continue reducing restrictive measures in the service consumption sector during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, building on the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumer Market - China's retail sales of consumer goods increased from 39.2 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [1] - In absolute terms, China's retail sales in 2022 were approximately 80% of the United States; however, in terms of purchasing power, China's retail sales exceeded that of the U.S., being 1.6 times greater according to World Bank data [1] Group 2: Service Consumption Trends - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," service consumption in China entered a rapid growth phase, with annual growth in residents' service consumption expenditure projected at 9.6% from 2020 to 2024 [1] - The primary challenge during this phase is a supply-side shortage, particularly in high-quality service offerings [1] Group 3: Policy Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce plans to address the shortage of high-quality services through both external and internal measures, including expanding pilot programs in sectors like healthcare and reducing restrictive measures in service consumption [1] - The government intends to convert effective and popular policies from the "14th Five-Year Plan" into long-term, sustainable policies while introducing targeted measures to stimulate commodity consumption and unleash service consumption potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese consumption market is expected to maintain its position as the world's second-largest, with retail sales projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan in 2023, reflecting a robust growth trajectory during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][4]. Group 1: Market Expansion - The scale of the market is expanding, with retail sales expected to grow from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, representing an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [1]. - China's retail sales are approximately 80% of the United States in absolute terms, but in terms of purchasing power, they exceed the U.S. by 60% [1]. Group 2: Quality Improvement - Quality consumption is becoming more prevalent, with 2.9 trillion yuan in sales driven by trade-in programs benefiting around 400 million people [2]. - Service consumption is growing rapidly, with an average annual increase of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024, outpacing goods consumption [2]. Group 3: New Consumption Trends - New consumption models are emerging, including digital consumption and quality e-commerce, supported by policies promoting innovation in the retail sector [3]. - The trade-in policy has significantly boosted smart home product consumption [3]. Group 4: Open Market Dynamics - The Chinese market is increasingly integrating with international markets, with a cumulative import of consumer goods reaching 7.4 trillion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [3]. - The number of countries with visa exemptions is expanding, and the tax refund policy for outbound tourists has been optimized, leading to a projected total expenditure of 94.2 billion USD by inbound tourists in 2024, a 77.8% increase [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The long-term fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain strong, with significant potential and resilience in the consumption market [4]. - The government plans to convert successful policies from the 14th Five-Year Plan into long-term measures while preparing targeted actions to stimulate consumption and enhance domestic demand [4].

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's service consumption is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 9.6%, outpacing goods consumption [1] - Cumulative imports of consumer goods are projected to reach 7.4 trillion yuan from 2021 to 2024, highlighting China's significant contribution to global market growth [1] - The "Buy in China" initiative and optimized tax refund policies for outbound tourists are expected to boost inbound tourist spending to 94.2 billion USD in 2024, representing a 77.8% increase [1] Group 1 - The average annual growth rate of service consumption is 9.6% from 2021 to 2024 [1] - Cumulative imports of consumer goods are estimated at 7.4 trillion yuan during the same period [1] - The increase in inbound tourist spending is driven by the "Buy in China" initiative [1] Group 2 - The growth in service consumption is faster than that of goods consumption [1] - The "Buy in China" campaign aims to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese products to international visitors [1] - The expected total spending by inbound tourists in 2024 is 94.2 billion USD, marking a significant increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting consumption, particularly in the service sector, as a key economic strategy to adapt to changing consumer behavior and external uncertainties [1][3][5]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - In June, the People's Bank of China and other ministries issued guidelines to support consumption, emphasizing service consumption in areas like home services, elderly care, and cultural tourism [1]. - A new policy was introduced to provide 500 billion yuan in loans aimed at enhancing service consumption and supporting the elderly care sector, effective until the end of 2027 [9]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - In the first five months of 2024, retail sales of goods grew by 5.1% year-on-year, while service retail sales showed a slower growth of 5.2%, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [1][3]. - The average per capita service consumption expenditure in China is projected to reach 13,000 yuan in 2024, translating to a total service consumption expenditure of 18.3 trillion yuan nationwide [1]. Group 3: Economic Context - Analysts suggest that as the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" consumption subsidy policy diminishes, service consumption will become the primary driver for consumption growth in the latter half of the year [3]. - China's per capita GDP has surpassed 13,000 USD, indicating a transition towards a service-oriented consumption structure, similar to trends observed in developed countries [5][6]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the growth in service consumption, there remains a significant gap compared to developed nations, with service consumption accounting for only 45.2% of total consumption in China, compared to 54.3% in the US and South Korea [6]. - Factors limiting service consumption include disposable income levels and social security systems, suggesting that improvements in these areas could enhance consumer confidence and spending [7][8]. Group 5: Recommendations for Growth - Analysts recommend increasing disposable income through job creation and enhancing social security, such as raising pension benefits, to stimulate service consumption [7]. - There is a call for targeted policies, such as consumption vouchers and subsidies, to specifically encourage service consumption, which is currently lagging behind goods consumption [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support to Boost and Expand Consumption" marks a shift in policy focus from goods consumption to service consumption, emphasizing the cultivation of supply rather than merely stimulating demand [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - The "Opinions" outline 19 specific measures across six areas to enhance consumer capacity, cultivate demand, and improve the specialized service capabilities of financial institutions [1] - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area, mentioned 13 times in the document, while goods consumption is referenced only twice [1] Group 2: Economic Context - In May, retail sales of goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year, showing a 2.6 percentage point improvement from December of the previous year, while service sector growth was more subdued at 6.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from December [1] - Analysts suggest that the marginal effects of the old-for-new consumption policy will weaken, indicating limited growth potential for goods consumption, whereas service consumption still holds significant potential [2] Group 3: Supply-Side Focus - The "Opinions" emphasize the importance of optimizing supply alongside expanding demand, aiming for a virtuous cycle in production, distribution, and consumption [2] - Future policies may focus on increasing financing support for consumer enterprises and investing in service consumption infrastructure, including facilities for culture, sports, healthcare, and community services [3] Group 4: Consumer Confidence - The primary constraint on consumer growth is not financial access but rather macroeconomic pressures and cautious consumer sentiment regarding employment and income [4] - The "Opinions" propose measures to support employment and income growth, enhance consumer confidence, and improve financial services for small and micro enterprises [4]

Core Insights - In May, China's retail sales of goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Retail sales of goods in above-designated size enterprises grew by 8.2%, with an acceleration of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [1] Group 1: Consumer Trends - The policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones has shown a significant impact, with retail sales of home appliances, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture increasing by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The retail volume of passenger cars in May saw a year-on-year increase of 13.3% according to data from the Automobile Circulation Association [1] Group 2: Upgraded Product Sales - Sales of upgraded consumer goods have experienced rapid growth, with retail sales of sports and entertainment products and gold and silver jewelry increasing by 28.3% and 21.8% year-on-year, respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery and trends in service consumption in China, highlighting the differences between service and goods consumption growth, as well as the performance of various sectors within service consumption. Group 1: Service Consumption Trends - Service consumption has shown a strong rebound for about a year, with a notable increase in growth rates for service retail compared to goods retail. In 2023, service retail grew by 20%, significantly outpacing the 5.8% growth in goods retail. In 2024, service retail is expected to grow by 6.2%, exceeding goods retail growth by 3 percentage points [2]. - The introduction of the "old-for-new" policy in 2024 has contributed to a sustained increase in goods consumption growth, with an estimated 1.5 percentage points increase in consumption driven by this policy [2]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Recovery - The fastest recovery within service consumption is observed in cultural entertainment and dining services, with 2023 year-on-year growth rates of 39.2% and 27.6%, respectively. Their share of cash consumption increased from 3% and 7.5% in 2022 to 3.7% and 8.7% in 2023 [5]. - In 2024, the growth rates for cultural entertainment and dining services are projected to be 10.6% and 8.4%, with their shares of cash consumption rising to 3.9% and 8.9% [5]. Group 3: Urban vs. Rural Consumption - Urban residents have shown a faster recovery in tourism consumption compared to rural residents, with tourism numbers and income recovering to 97.7% and 103.8% of 2019 levels, respectively, while rural residents lag at 81.4% and 84.7% [10]. - Rural residents are more inclined to spend on food, clothing, and daily necessities, with spending growth rates in these categories exceeding those of urban residents in 2024 [10]. Group 4: Seasonal Consumption Patterns - Tourism consumption exhibits a clear holiday concentration, with the proportion of total tourism numbers and income during major holidays like May Day and National Day remaining above pre-pandemic levels, despite a slight decrease from 2020 [11]. Group 5: Per Capita Spending Trends - Per capita tourism spending rapidly recovered to 90% of 2019 levels in 2023 but has since plateaued, indicating a stabilization phase in consumer spending patterns [12]. Group 6: Dining Consumption Insights - There is a notable disparity in growth rates between dining consumption in different market segments, with lower-tier dining establishments experiencing a 6.3% growth compared to just 3% for higher-tier establishments in 2024 [16]. - The performance of dining companies varies significantly based on their market focus, with those operating in lower-tier cities showing substantial profit growth, while those in higher-tier cities face declines [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's consumption market is showing stable growth, driven by effective policies and promotional activities [1][2] - In April, retail sales of goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with a 0.5 percentage point acceleration compared to the first quarter [2] - The "old for new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, particularly in home appliances, cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% [2] Group 2 - The digital product subsidy policy has led to a notable increase in sales, with 48.8 million consumers purchasing 51.48 million digital products, generating sales of 143.26 billion yuan [1] - From January to April, retail sales of communication equipment increased by 25.4% year-on-year, ranking first among 16 categories of consumer goods [1] - The sales of new energy passenger vehicles surged by 33.9% in April, achieving a penetration rate of 51.5% [2] Group 3 - Online consumption is steadily growing, with online retail sales increasing by 7.7% year-on-year, and physical goods online retail sales growing by 5.8%, accounting for 24.3% of total retail sales [2] - E-commerce is enhancing domestic circulation and international cooperation, with significant contributions to improving consumption quality [2][3] - The integration of industrial e-commerce is facilitating foreign trade and domestic sales, with over 3,100 foreign trade enterprises participating in online activities, generating over 1.1 billion yuan in sales [3]