中国银河证券主要观点如下： 服务消费，元旦出行数据高增长： 中国银河（601881）证券发布研究报告称，元旦客流的恢复，带动文旅、酒店与餐饮恢复，使服务消费 成为假期内需修复的主动力。消费行业需要重视"十五五"规划中消费的中长期目标；短期关注针对2026 年消费相关具体政策落地。对消费行业2026年海外业务的发展持乐观观点。消费个股方面，关注市场风 格切换(高切低)过程中的高分红率优质公司，以及各细分赛道中有阿尔法的公司。 事件：2026年，大力提振消费是重要政策方向。看好服务消费活力释放，以及国补对商品消费的刺激作 用。体验型服务消费是重要的增长点，元旦假期游客度假选择愈发多元，如冰雪运动、避寒休闲、文化 体验、亲子游乐等场景。2026年将有元旦、春节、中秋节与国庆节四大加强版假期，更有利于服务消 费。其中元旦假期长达3天；春节假期9天是史上最长；中秋不再"占用"国庆假期，多出2天独立中秋 假。 海南、澳门出境游大幅增长：1)作为海南全岛封关后的首个小长假，去哪儿旅行数据显示，飞往海口、 三亚的机票预订量增幅居全国首位，三亚入境机票量同比增逾5倍，海口增逾3倍，并显著带动周边酒店 入住量提升1–1.5倍不等 ...

报告正文 = 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强 耿佩璇 图 39: 上周，高炉开工率位于低位 全国高炉开工率 (247家) • 2022 ··· 2019 ■ ■ ■ · 2020 2021 2023 2025 -- 2024 % 85 80 75 70 65 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1.生产高频跟踪：工业生产延续弱势，建筑业开工有所分化 工业生产中，高炉开工、钢材表观消费均不及去年同期。 上周（12月14日至12月20日），高炉开工率 环比-0.1%，同比回升0.8个百分点至-1.1%；钢材表观消费环比-0.5%、同比回升0.7个百分点至-4.1%。钢材 社会库存延续回落，环比-3.7%。 石化链开工边际改善，消费链开工相对较弱。 上周（12月14日至12月20日），石化链中，纯碱开工率 环比-1.6%，同比上行4.3个百分点至0.9%；PTA开工率持平前周、同比回升2.3个百分点至-8.4%。下游消费 链中，涤纶长丝开工率有所回升，环比0.2%、同比回落0.4个百分点至-0.4%；汽车半钢胎开工率表现偏弱， 环比-0.2%、同比回落0.1个百分点至 ...

付凌晖表示，总的看，11月份消费市场总体平稳，消费规模继续扩大，服务消费较快增长，消费提质升级态 势持续。我国消费稳步扩大是人均GDP超过1万美元、消费结构升级发展的必然表现，也是促消费政策持续发 力、消费潜能释放的结果，还是新技术新模式广泛渗透、消费新增长点不断涌现的反映。但也要看到，居民 消费能力和信心有待进一步提升，消费增长内生动力仍需增强。下阶段，要继续深入实施提振消费专项行 动，着力稳就业促增收，积极扩大优质供给，大力优化消费环境，不断释放消费潜力，促进消费市场持续稳 定健康发展。 【大河财立方消息】12月15日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年11月份国民经济运行情况。 国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖介绍，11月份消费市场总体平稳，消费 规模继续扩大，服务消费较快增长，消费提质升级态势持续。但也要看到，居民消费能力和信心有待进一步 提升，消费增长内生动力仍需增强。下阶段，要继续深入实施提振消费专项行动，着力稳就业促增收，积极 扩大优质供给，大力优化消费环境，不断释放消费潜力。 付凌晖表示，消费不仅关系着经济发展，也和民生改善紧密相关。今年以来，提振消费专 ...

Core Viewpoint - The notice issued by the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau emphasizes the need to strengthen collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption significantly [1][4]. Group 1: Strengthening Collaboration - Local commerce departments and financial management departments are encouraged to enhance communication and establish a coordinated working mechanism to address challenges in financial support for consumption expansion [4][5]. - Financial institutions are urged to align their resources and services with existing policies to actively support consumption growth [5][11]. Group 2: Financial Support for Key Consumption Areas - The notice highlights the importance of increasing financial support for service consumption, particularly in sectors like home services, hospitality, entertainment, education, tourism, and elderly care [2][8]. - Financial products and services should be innovated to better integrate into consumption scenarios and ecosystems, promoting the use of loans and financing for service-oriented businesses [2][8]. Group 3: New Consumption Models - The document encourages the development of new consumption models, including green consumption, digital consumption, and AI-driven consumption, while ensuring risk control and commercial sustainability [9]. - Financial institutions are advised to collaborate with e-commerce platforms and social media to create tailored financial services that cater to the unique characteristics of online shopping [9]. Group 4: Promoting Consumption Activities - Financial institutions are encouraged to participate in local consumption promotion activities, offering specialized products and services to reach a broader consumer base [11][12]. - The notice suggests the use of digital currency and smart contracts to enhance the efficiency of subsidy distribution and targeted policies [11]. Group 5: Information Sharing and Consumer Protection - Local commerce departments are tasked with creating a list of key projects in the consumption sector to facilitate information sharing with financial institutions, ensuring precise service delivery [12]. - The importance of consumer rights protection is emphasized, guiding consumers towards rational borrowing and spending practices [12].

Core Insights - The consumption market in China is experiencing steady growth, with a retail sales total of 4.63 trillion yuan in October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41.2 trillion yuan, marking a 4.3% growth, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] Group 1: Goods Consumption - In October, the retail sales of goods increased by 2.8%, with significant growth in the sales of communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture, which rose by 23.2%, 13.5%, and 9.6% respectively [1] - Basic living goods saw rapid growth, with retail sales of grain and oil foods increasing by 9.1% and clothing and footwear by 6.3% [1] - Demand for upgraded goods remains strong, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cosmetics growing by 37.6%, 10.1%, and 9.6% respectively [1] Group 2: Service Consumption - From January to October, service retail sales grew by 5.3%, outpacing goods retail sales by 0.9 percentage points [2] - Driven by holiday travel demand, retail sales in tourism consulting, transportation services, and cultural and recreational services all maintained growth rates above 10% [2] - In October, restaurant income increased by 3.8%, with a growth acceleration of 2.9 percentage points compared to September [2] - The inbound tourism sector remains strong, with 751,000 foreign visitors during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, representing a 19.8% increase [2] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - In October, sales of smart health devices increased by over 20%, while smart wearable devices grew by approximately 4% [2] - Sales of first-level energy-efficient home appliances rose by over 10%, and organic food sales increased by over 8% [2] - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles grew by 7.3% in October, achieving a penetration rate of 57.2% [2] - From January to October, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.3% [2] Group 4: Rural vs Urban Consumption - Rural consumption is outpacing urban consumption, with retail sales in rural areas growing by 4.1% in October, 1.4 percentage points faster than urban areas [2] - From January to October, rural retail sales increased by 4.6%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than urban growth [2]

Core Insights - The consumption market in China is showing steady growth, with retail sales reaching 4.63 trillion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 41.2 trillion yuan, growing by 4.3%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] Group 1: Goods Consumption - In October, the retail sales of goods increased by 2.8%, with significant growth in the sales of old-for-new related products, particularly in communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture, which grew by 23.2%, 13.5%, and 9.6% respectively [1] - Basic living goods saw rapid growth, with retail sales of grain and oil foods increasing by 9.1% and clothing and footwear by 6.3% [1] - There is strong demand for upgraded consumer goods, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cosmetics increasing by 37.6%, 10.1%, and 9.6% respectively [1] Group 2: Service Consumption - From January to October, service retail sales grew by 5.3%, which is 0.1 percentage points faster than the previous three quarters and 0.9 percentage points faster than goods retail sales [2] - Driven by holiday travel demand, retail sales in tourism consulting, transportation services, and cultural and recreational services all maintained growth rates above 10% [2] - In October, restaurant income increased by 3.8%, accelerating by 2.9 percentage points compared to September [2] - The inbound tourism sector remains strong, with 751,000 foreign visitors during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, marking a 19.8% increase [2] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - In October, sales of smart health devices increased by over 20%, while smart wearable devices grew by approximately 4%, and sales of certain first-level energy-efficient appliances rose by over 10% [2] - Organic food sales also saw an increase of over 8% [2] - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles grew by 7.3% in October, with a penetration rate of 57.2% [2] - From January to October, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.3% [2] Group 4: Rural vs Urban Consumption - Rural consumption is outpacing urban consumption, with retail sales in rural areas growing by 4.1% in October, 1.4 percentage points faster than urban areas [2] - From January to October, rural retail sales increased by 4.6%, which is 0.4 percentage points faster than urban retail sales [2]

Core Insights - The retail sales of consumer goods in rural areas grew by 4.1% in October, outpacing urban growth by 1.4 percentage points [1][2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.63 trillion yuan in October, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [1] - From January to October, the total retail sales amounted to 41.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.3%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] Group 1: Consumer Goods - In October, the retail sales of goods increased by 2.8%, with significant growth in the sales of communication equipment (23.2%), cultural and office supplies (13.5%), and furniture (9.6%) [1] - Basic living goods saw rapid growth, with retail sales of grain and oil foods increasing by 9.1% and clothing and footwear by 6.3% [1] - The demand for upgraded consumer goods remained strong, with jewelry sales rising by 37.6%, sports and entertainment products by 10.1%, and cosmetics by 9.6% [1] Group 2: Service Consumption - From January to October, service retail sales grew by 5.3%, which is 0.9 percentage points faster than goods retail sales [2] - The demand for travel-related services surged, with retail sales in tourism consulting, transportation, and recreational services all maintaining over 10% growth [2] - In October, restaurant income increased by 3.8%, with a significant acceleration of 2.9 percentage points compared to September [2] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - In October, sales of smart health devices grew by over 20%, while smart wearable devices saw a growth of approximately 4% [2] - Sales of first-level energy-efficient home appliances increased by over 10%, and organic food sales grew by over 8% [2] - The retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles rose by 7.3% in October, achieving a penetration rate of 57.2% [2] Group 4: Rural vs Urban Consumption - Rural retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.6% from January to October, surpassing urban growth by 0.4 percentage points [2] - The vitality of the lower-tier markets continues to expand, with county-level consumption showing robust growth [2]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 0.2%, driven by improved food prices and robust service consumption[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 1.2%, the highest level since March 2024[2] - Food CPI improved with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9%, while fresh vegetables and fruits saw significant price increases[3] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points to -2.1%, marking the first month of increase in 2025[5] - The PPI improvement is driven by the oil-petrochemical and coal-metallurgy sectors, indicating a unique price logic compared to other major industrial countries[5] - Domestic effective investment demand growth is constrained, prolonging the PPI recovery process due to ongoing real estate market adjustments[5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The upward trend in core CPI and PPI suggests a synchronized improvement, but the underlying inflation logic remains fragile[5] - Domestic consumption and effective investment demand are still weak, influenced by rising household debt during the real estate market's bottoming phase[5] - The necessity to expand domestic demand is emphasized, especially in light of cooling export growth and uncertainties from global supply chain restructuring[5]

Group 1: Travel and Mobility - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday from October 1 to October 8, the total cross-regional mobility reached 2.432 billion trips, with a daily average of 304 million trips, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.2% and a 30.8% increase compared to 2019 [2] - Self-driving travel saw a significant increase, with average passenger volume growth rates for non-commercial small cars, water transport, civil aviation, commercial highways, and railways at 7.1%, 4.2%, 3.4%, 2.9%, and 2.6% respectively compared to 2024 [3] - The civil aviation market experienced a 3.3% increase in daily average passenger flights compared to last year, with international flights recovering to 92.9% of 2019 levels, primarily focused on Southeast Asia and East Asia [5] Group 2: Consumer Spending - Overall consumer spending showed a moderate recovery, with average daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries increasing by 4.5% year-on-year during the holiday [9] - Service consumption outperformed goods consumption, with service consumption growing by 7.6% compared to 3.9% for goods [9] - The number of payment transactions processed by UnionPay and other platforms increased by approximately 30%, with transaction amounts rising by about 16% during the holiday [9] Group 3: Tourism and Local Consumption - Domestic tourism saw 888 million trips, with total spending reaching 809 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.01% [13] - The average tourism spending per person was 911 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.55% year-on-year, but an improvement compared to earlier holidays [16] - Key scenic spots experienced significant visitor growth, with popular destinations like Huangshan and Emei Mountain seeing increases in visitor numbers and ticket revenue [22][23] Group 4: Local Consumption Trends - The restaurant sector showed stable performance, with key retail and catering enterprises reporting a 2.7% year-on-year increase in sales during the holiday [25] - The film industry, however, faced challenges, with box office revenue for the National Day period at 1.835 billion yuan, a decline of 13% year-on-year [27] - The average ticket price for films decreased by 9.4%, indicating a soft performance in the cinema sector [31] Group 5: Summary and Structural Highlights - The overall consumption data during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday indicated steady growth, although some sectors showed a decline compared to the May Day holiday [32] - Key structural highlights include the rising popularity of self-driving travel, a strong recovery in international flight numbers, and improved tourism spending per capita compared to earlier holidays [32]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a series of policies aimed at expanding service consumption, which is seen as a key driver for high-quality economic development in the country [1] Group 1: Service Consumption Expansion - Service consumption is defined as the exchange of money for intangible products, contrasting with tangible goods consumption [2] - The current focus on expanding service consumption aligns with China's development stage, as service consumption typically becomes dominant when GDP per capita exceeds $15,000 [2] - China's per capita GDP is currently around $13,000, with service consumption growth outpacing that of goods consumption in recent months [2] Group 2: Impact of School Holidays on Service Consumption - The introduction of spring and autumn breaks for students is expected to enhance service consumption by providing more leisure time for families [3] - The effectiveness of this policy depends on whether parents also have time off, which will determine its impact on service consumption growth [3] Group 3: New Market Opportunities - Emerging consumption trends, such as "Village BA" and "Su Chao," indicate new market opportunities driven by quality content and innovative service offerings [4] - The interaction between new demand and supply is crucial, as quality content and innovative experiences can significantly enhance consumer engagement [4] Group 4: Challenges in Service Consumption - Despite the growth in service consumption, the overall consumption-to-GDP ratio in China remains low, indicating a need for improvement [6] - Addressing this issue requires coordinated efforts on both the supply and demand sides, particularly by enhancing public services and social security for low-income groups [6]