26 年春节假期点评：超长假期刺激出游，景区、入境游表现靓丽 [Table_Industry] 旅游综合 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业事项点评 | [Table_StockAndRank] 旅游综合 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 范欣悦 商社行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521080001 邮 箱：fanxinyue@cindasc.com 陆亚宁 商社行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030003 邮 箱：luyaning@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 26 年春节假期点评：超长假期刺激出游，景 区、入境游表现靓丽 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [➢Table_S ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce is launching the "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" initiative to stimulate consumer spending during the upcoming Lunar New Year, with a focus on providing substantial financial support and promotional activities to enhance holiday consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Support and Consumer Incentives - A total of 20.5 billion yuan has been allocated to provide direct benefits to consumers through vouchers, subsidies, and red envelopes during the nine-day holiday period [1]. - The initiative includes three major packages: trade-in programs, prize invoices, and financial support, with 625 billion yuan in national subsidies already distributed to local commerce departments [3][4]. - Prize invoices will be piloted in 50 cities, with a total of 10 billion yuan in bonuses expected to be distributed during the holiday [4]. Group 2: Enhancing Consumer Experience for International Visitors - Policies will be introduced to improve the digital services for foreign visitors, including increased flight capacity on popular international routes [4]. - Multi-language maps of Chinese New Year customs will be encouraged to help international travelers engage with local traditions [4]. - A total of 13,000 tax refund stores will offer high-quality products, allowing foreign visitors to enjoy a 10% discount when shopping in China [4]. Group 3: Financial Institutions' Role - Financial institutions are expected to optimize resource allocation and innovate financial products to meet diverse consumer needs, particularly in durable goods and service sectors [5][6]. - Personal consumer loans will be increased to support the purchase of automobiles, home appliances, and home renovations [5]. - New financial products will be developed to cater to emerging consumption trends, including digital and customized consumption [6]. Group 4: Long-term Consumption Strategy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is identified as a crucial time for the rapid development of consumption, with retail sales expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan [7]. - The government aims to combine consumer welfare with consumption promotion, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the "Buy in China" brand [7][8]. - New consumption models such as digital, green, and intelligent consumption will be further developed, alongside efforts to optimize consumption environments and policies [8].

来源：21世纪经济报道 这其中，第一个是海外市场。过去广货出海，有一部分是代工、薄利多销，赚的是辛苦钱；现在已然不同，广东制造业早已完成转型升 级，大疆无人机、比亚迪新能源汽车、格力智能家电等，带着核心技术和自主品牌走向全球。依托跨境电商、海外仓等便捷渠道，广货正 从"产品出口"向"品牌出口""标准出口"跨越，东南亚、欧洲、拉美等新兴市场，对高品质"中国智造"的需求日益旺盛，这正是广货出海的 新蓝海。 第二个是粤港澳大湾区市场。大湾区有超过8000万常住人口，消费升级迅速，既有高端消费群体对高品质商品的需求，也有普通民众对高 性价比民生商品的诉求，是广货的"后花园"，更是打磨产品、优化服务的优质"试验场景"，依托"一小时生活圈"，广货可快速触达千万级 消费群体，实现高效流转与市场检验。 第三个是下沉市场，也就是县域及农村市场。粤东西北地区发展仍存在不平衡问题，这些地区的下沉市场还有很大一部分消费潜力待释 放。更重要的是，全国还有大量类似的乡村地区，那里的消费者不盲目追求高端溢价，更看重"质价比"，这正是广货的传统优势，也是可 深耕的广阔天地。 当年的广货，其实质是引领消费潮流。因为有了潮流，就有了市场，所以一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of service consumption is crucial for China's economic growth, with a significant gap compared to developed countries, indicating a vast potential for growth in this sector [2][3] Group 1: Service Consumption Trends - By 2025, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure in China is expected to reach 46.1%, while developed countries typically exceed 60%, with some even over 70% [2] - It is predicted that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, service consumption will account for over 50% of total consumption, marking an irreversible trend [2] Group 2: Relationship Between Service and Goods Consumption - Both service and goods consumption are essential for expanding domestic demand, with service consumption focusing on growth and goods consumption on quality improvement [3] - The tourism sector exemplifies this relationship, with over 6.5 billion domestic tourist trips expected by 2025, highlighting the interconnectedness of service and goods consumption [3] Group 3: Market Opportunities for "Guangdong Goods" - The overseas market presents new opportunities for Guangdong goods, transitioning from low-margin exports to high-quality brand exports, particularly in emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Europe [4] - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with over 80 million residents, serves as a significant market for both high-end and cost-effective products, providing a testing ground for product optimization [4] - The untapped potential in lower-tier markets, particularly in rural areas, offers significant opportunities for Guangdong goods, focusing on quality-price ratios rather than premium pricing [4] Group 4: Future Directions for Guangdong Goods - Future consumption trends are expected to lean towards intelligence, sustainability, differentiation, and emotional connection, where Guangdong has competitive advantages [5] - Guangdong's digital economy and advancements in AI and IoT are leading to innovative products, while the focus on green products aligns with global consumption trends [5] - The integration of local cultural elements into products enhances emotional value, appealing to younger consumers [5]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the significant role of service consumption in China's economic performance in 2025, highlighting a shift towards a more balanced consumption structure between goods and services [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance - In 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 50 trillion yuan, marking a 3.7% increase from the previous year, with a growth acceleration of 0.2 percentage points compared to 2024 [2]. - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous year, establishing it as a primary driver of economic stability [2]. Group 2: Service Consumption - Service retail sales grew by 5.5% in 2025, outpacing goods retail sales by 1.7 percentage points, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards services [2][3]. - The proportion of service consumption expenditure in per capita household consumption reached 46.1%, reflecting the increasing importance of services in consumer spending [2]. Group 3: New Consumption Trends - Online retail sales increased by 8.6% in 2025, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales [3]. - New retail models, such as unmanned stores and warehouse membership stores, maintained double-digit growth, while green consumption, including electric vehicles, continued to expand [3]. Group 4: Goods Consumption - Retail sales of goods rose by 3.8% in 2025, with significant growth in essential goods like food and upgrades in sports and communication products [3]. - Policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones have been implemented to encourage high-quality durable goods in daily life, with notable growth in categories like cultural and office supplies, furniture, and home appliances [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite challenges, the consumption market is expected to grow steadily in 2026, supported by a large middle-income population and ongoing consumption upgrade trends [4]. - Continued implementation of consumption-boosting policies and improvements in the consumption environment are anticipated to further stimulate consumer spending [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the recovery of service consumption driven by the resurgence of travel during the New Year holiday, which has become the main force for domestic demand recovery [1] - The report highlights the optimistic outlook for the development of overseas business in the consumer sector by 2026, alongside a focus on high-dividend quality companies during market style shifts [1] - The report notes that the 2026 policy direction will significantly boost consumption, with a particular emphasis on experiential service consumption as a key growth area [1] Group 2 - During the New Year holiday, transportation data indicates a total of 590 million people traveled across regions, with an average of 198 million daily, marking a 19.5% year-on-year increase [1] - Railway passenger volume is expected to reach 48.22 million, a 53.1% increase year-on-year, while road travel is projected at 540 million, up 15.5% [1] - The report mentions that inbound tourism is continuing to grow, with ticket bookings for inbound travel during the New Year holiday increasing by 110% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - The first batch of national subsidies for 2026 has been issued, with 62.5 billion yuan allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods, benefiting categories such as air conditioners and refrigerators [3] - Midea has initiated a price increase for air conditioners, implementing a tiered pricing strategy with a 2% increase on January 3 and an additional 4% on January 5 [3] - The report indicates that Midea's price increase is a response to rising copper costs and aims to improve the competitive landscape in the air conditioning industry [3] Group 4 - CES 2026 is set to take place from January 6 to 9, 2026, in Las Vegas, showcasing Chinese technology consumer products transitioning from innovative to mainstream [4] - The focus will be on smart home devices, electric vehicles, and various consumer electronics, with particular attention to stair-climbing vacuum cleaners for the European and American markets [4]

Group 1: Industrial Production and Construction - Industrial production continues to show weakness, with blast furnace operating rates and steel apparent consumption lower than the same period last year. The blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.1% week-on-week and increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to -1.1%. Steel apparent consumption fell by 0.5% week-on-week and increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to -4.1% [1][13] - The steel social inventory continues to decline, down 3.7% week-on-week [1] - In the construction sector, cement production and demand are weak, with the nationwide grinding operating rate decreasing by 2.5% week-on-week and increasing by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year to 2.4%. Cement shipment rates fell by 1.7% week-on-week and decreased by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to -2.3% [25][29] Group 2: Demand Tracking - The transaction volume of commercial housing remains low, with major cities experiencing weaker sales. The average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreased by 15.4% week-on-week and increased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to -28.5%. First and second-tier cities saw sales decline by 10.4% and 13.5% week-on-week, respectively, while third-tier cities improved by 27.8% week-on-week [49][50] - Port cargo throughput has decreased, but remains higher than the same period last year. Rail freight volume and highway truck traffic have also declined, down 0.1 percentage points to -2.1% and 1.7% to -2.1% year-on-year, respectively [61][62] Group 3: Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices are showing divergence, with pork and vegetable prices declining by 0.3% week-on-week, while fruit and egg prices increased by 1.7% and 0.2%, respectively [103][104] - The industrial product price index has decreased, indicating a general decline in industrial prices [116][119]

Core Viewpoint - The overall consumer market in November remains stable, with continued expansion in consumption scale and rapid growth in service consumption, indicating a trend of consumption quality improvement and upgrade [1][5]. Group 1: Consumer Market Overview - In the first eleven months, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year-on-year, surpassing both the growth rate of the same period last year and the overall growth rate for the entire previous year [3]. - The recent slowdown in the growth rate of retail sales is attributed to a high base from the previous year [3]. - Service consumption has shown rapid growth, with service retail sales increasing by 5.4% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales [3][5]. Group 2: Service Consumption - The growth in service consumption is reflected in the development of cultural and sports consumption, with retail sales in this category maintaining double-digit growth [4]. - The retail sales of communication and information services increased by over 10% year-on-year [4]. - New consumption scenarios and supply in cultural and sports activities, such as ice and snow sports, have contributed to the rapid growth of related service retail [3][4]. Group 3: Goods Consumption - The consumption of goods continues to expand, with significant growth in quality consumption driven by promotional policies [4]. - In November, retail sales of cultural and office supplies and communication equipment increased by 11.7% and 20.6% year-on-year, respectively [4]. - Retail sales of food and basic living necessities also saw a notable increase, with grain and oil food retail sales growing by 6.1% [4]. Group 4: New Consumption Trends - New consumption models such as instant retail and live e-commerce are rapidly growing, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, outpacing the overall retail sales growth by 1.7 percentage points [5]. - The share of online retail in total retail sales reached 25.9% [5]. - Emerging trends in digital, green, and health consumption are becoming new hotspots, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [5].

Core Viewpoint - The notice issued by the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau emphasizes the need to strengthen collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption significantly [1][4]. Group 1: Strengthening Collaboration - Local commerce departments and financial management departments are encouraged to enhance communication and establish a coordinated working mechanism to address challenges in financial support for consumption expansion [4][5]. - Financial institutions are urged to align their resources and services with existing policies to actively support consumption growth [5][11]. Group 2: Financial Support for Key Consumption Areas - The notice highlights the importance of increasing financial support for service consumption, particularly in sectors like home services, hospitality, entertainment, education, tourism, and elderly care [2][8]. - Financial products and services should be innovated to better integrate into consumption scenarios and ecosystems, promoting the use of loans and financing for service-oriented businesses [2][8]. Group 3: New Consumption Models - The document encourages the development of new consumption models, including green consumption, digital consumption, and AI-driven consumption, while ensuring risk control and commercial sustainability [9]. - Financial institutions are advised to collaborate with e-commerce platforms and social media to create tailored financial services that cater to the unique characteristics of online shopping [9]. Group 4: Promoting Consumption Activities - Financial institutions are encouraged to participate in local consumption promotion activities, offering specialized products and services to reach a broader consumer base [11][12]. - The notice suggests the use of digital currency and smart contracts to enhance the efficiency of subsidy distribution and targeted policies [11]. Group 5: Information Sharing and Consumer Protection - Local commerce departments are tasked with creating a list of key projects in the consumption sector to facilitate information sharing with financial institutions, ensuring precise service delivery [12]. - The importance of consumer rights protection is emphasized, guiding consumers towards rational borrowing and spending practices [12].

Core Insights - The consumption market in China is experiencing steady growth, with a retail sales total of 4.63 trillion yuan in October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41.2 trillion yuan, marking a 4.3% growth, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] Group 1: Goods Consumption - In October, the retail sales of goods increased by 2.8%, with significant growth in the sales of communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture, which rose by 23.2%, 13.5%, and 9.6% respectively [1] - Basic living goods saw rapid growth, with retail sales of grain and oil foods increasing by 9.1% and clothing and footwear by 6.3% [1] - Demand for upgraded goods remains strong, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cosmetics growing by 37.6%, 10.1%, and 9.6% respectively [1] Group 2: Service Consumption - From January to October, service retail sales grew by 5.3%, outpacing goods retail sales by 0.9 percentage points [2] - Driven by holiday travel demand, retail sales in tourism consulting, transportation services, and cultural and recreational services all maintained growth rates above 10% [2] - In October, restaurant income increased by 3.8%, with a growth acceleration of 2.9 percentage points compared to September [2] - The inbound tourism sector remains strong, with 751,000 foreign visitors during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, representing a 19.8% increase [2] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - In October, sales of smart health devices increased by over 20%, while smart wearable devices grew by approximately 4% [2] - Sales of first-level energy-efficient home appliances rose by over 10%, and organic food sales increased by over 8% [2] - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles grew by 7.3% in October, achieving a penetration rate of 57.2% [2] - From January to October, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.3% [2] Group 4: Rural vs Urban Consumption - Rural consumption is outpacing urban consumption, with retail sales in rural areas growing by 4.1% in October, 1.4 percentage points faster than urban areas [2] - From January to October, rural retail sales increased by 4.6%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than urban growth [2]