专题报告 2026-03-03 玻璃：供需双弱格局未改 陈张滢 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 2025 年，玻璃厂整体库存去化进展不畅，全年多数时间维持在 6000 万重箱左右的偏高水平。 高库存对厂商市场信心形成持续压制，同时也增强了贸易商的议价能力，厂家在出货时需维持 一定优惠力度，进一步压缩玻璃厂的利润空间。从供给端来看，当前行业博弈已进入深水区， 产能占比过半的天然气产线面临持续现金亏损，煤制气及石油焦产线的冷修预期亦有所加强。 在此背景下，盘面已处于相对低估位置，若后续政策利好落地，价格弹性较大，低位博弈的性 价比逐步显现，可重点关注 3 月 4 日-5 日两会对"双碳"目标的规划及房地产市场指引，建议 在 1050 元/吨以下区间轻仓布局多单。 黑色建材研究 | 玻璃 供需双弱格局未改 截至 2 月 26 日，浮法玻璃日熔量降至 14.86 万吨，环比 1 月下降 1.59%。开工率为 70.61%，持续 刷新历史低点。2 月期间，共有 4 条产线进入冷修，1 条产线完成引板，合计减少 ...

去年年底，美国新建住宅销售回升，开发商大量提供销售优惠以及融资成本小幅下降，均提振了购房需 求。 美国政府周五公布的数据显示，11月新建单户型住宅销量跃升，12月折合年率为74.5万套。上述数据此 前因去年秋季联邦政府停摆而推迟发布。彭博调查的经济学家此前预计12月销量为73万套。 这份报告提供了去年最后两个月的相关数据，报告显示10月至11月的增长为2022年8月以来最大。 12月销售价格中值同比下跌2%，至41.44万美元。2025年全年，仅有三个月房价未出现同比下滑。 尽管新建住宅仅占全美房屋销售总量的15%左右，但2025年年底的强劲表现为整体表现低迷的房地产市 场带来积极信号。 责任编辑：李桐 去年年底，美国新建住宅销售回升，开发商大量提供销售优惠以及融资成本小幅下降，均提振了购房需 求。 美国政府周五公布的数据显示，11月新建单户型住宅销量跃升，12月折合年率为74.5万套。上述数据此 前因去年秋季联邦政府停摆而推迟发布。彭博调查的经济学家此前预计12月销量为73万套。 这份报告提供了去年最后两个月的相关数据，报告显示10月至11月的增长为2022年8月以来最大。 12月销售价格中值同比下跌2%， ...

Core Insights - The current economic environment is characterized by a transition period, with a stable economic foundation but challenges in domestic demand, real estate adjustments, and bank net interest margins [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 emphasized the need for policy support and reform innovation to unlock economic potential [1] Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination - The view that "reducing the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) is preferable to cutting interest rates" is based on the current low net interest margins of commercial banks, which do not support significant interest rate cuts [3][4] - The "gradual RRR and interest rate reduction cycle" suggests a cautious approach to monetary policy, allowing for time lags in its effects on the real economy [4] - China's monetary policy framework differs from Western countries, focusing on RRR adjustments rather than interest rate changes, with a current average RRR of about 6.3% [5] Government Bond Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has begun using government bond transactions as a new liquidity adjustment tool, with operations in 2024 and 2025 differing in market conditions [6][7] - The bond market has seen a decline in yields due to increased supply and market conditions, with the PBOC potentially implementing "buy long, sell short" operations to support fiscal policy [7] Real Estate Market Stabilization - Policies to stabilize the real estate market have been implemented, resulting in a narrowing decline in key indicators such as new housing sales, which fell by 8.7% in 2025, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from 2024 [8][9] - Key measures to stabilize expectations include improving liquidity in the real estate market and enhancing the quality of housing supply [9] Investment in Human Capital - The shift from "investment in material" to "investment in people" is crucial for economic growth, emphasizing the need for increased public spending on education, healthcare, and social services [10][11] - The government aims to enhance income distribution and support consumption through targeted fiscal policies, with a focus on increasing disposable income for low- and middle-income households [12][13] Consumer Demand Activation - Short-term fiscal transfers, such as consumption vouchers and targeted subsidies, are seen as effective measures to boost consumer spending [13][14] - Long-term strategies include tax reforms and increased government spending in the service sectors, particularly in elder care and childcare, to stimulate demand [15][16][17]

【土地】 北京土拍：北京城建+密云城投3.8亿元底价摘得密云水源路地块 2月11日，据北京规自委消息，北京城建+密云城投3.8亿元底价摘得密云区水源路南侧MY00-0104- 6022、6025地块二类居住用地，楼面价约7756.25元/㎡。该地块由两幅子地块组成，用地规模约2.45公 顷，规划地上建筑面积约4.9万㎡，容积率均为3.0，控高30米，规划要求内部形成环路并实现人车分 离，鼓励采用平坡结合的小高层形式，融入儿童友好理念营造适儿化环境。地块位于密云区鼓楼街道， 周边有北京密云万象汇、燕赛奥特莱斯、北京大学第一医院密云院区、奥林公园等生活配套。 昌平南邵低密组团地块预计3月下旬开拍，起拍价16.88亿元 【新盘】 周度销冠：建发·海晏取得2.94亿元销售额 2月2日-2月8日，北京市商品住宅成交404套，成交金额31.33亿元。其中，位于海淀朱房村的建发·海晏 以8套、0.21万㎡、2.94亿元的网签成绩，成为全市新房网签周度金额冠军。不仅如此，建发·海晏以 75.36亿元的销售成绩斩获2025年度北京住宅市场销售亚军。该项目共规划16栋7F-15层洋房+小高层， 楼王栋高达3.6米，约435套房源 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Shenyang Grade A office market maintained a total stock of 1,369,293 square meters with no new supply in Q4 2025, and recorded a net absorption of -5,470 square meters, leading to a vacancy rate increase to 33.5% [38] - The average rent decreased by 2.7% to RMB 55.1 per square meter per month [38] - The retail market in Shenyang remained stable with a total stock of 6,569,251 square meters and an average rent of RMB 227 per square meter per month, while the overall vacancy rate was 19.53% [62] Summary by Sections Macro Economic Overview - Shenyang's GDP was reported at 7,248 billion RMB, with a third industry growth rate of 4.3% [4][6] - The per capita disposable income for urban residents was 43,482 RMB [10] Real Estate Development - Real estate development investment growth rate in Shenyang was -26.0% [13] Major Land Transactions - Significant land transactions included commercial and residential land in Heping District and Yuhong District, with total prices ranging from 0.239 billion to 6.445 billion RMB [16] Grade A Office Market Overview - The total stock of Grade A office space was 1,369,293 square meters, with no new supply in Q4 2025 [22] - The average rent was RMB 55.1 per square meter per month, with a vacancy rate of 33.5% [38] - The top three industries by leasing transactions were trade (23%), TMT (22%), and professional services (21%) [32] Retail Market Overview - The total stock of quality retail properties was 6,569,251 square meters, with an average rent of RMB 227 per square meter per month [42] - The vacancy rate was 19.53%, and the market focused on the decommissioning and upgrading of existing projects [62] - New store openings were primarily in the dining and experiential retail sectors, indicating a shift towards innovative consumption [62]

Group 1 - Tesla has announced the termination of its free FSD transfer plan, effective March 31, 2026, aiming to increase the usage rate of FSD features [2] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans in 20 cities in Guangdong Province will be adjusted to no less than 30%, effective January 21, 2026 [3] - The 2026 Spring Festival travel period is expected to see record-high inter-regional mobility and passenger volumes in rail and civil aviation, with self-driving remaining the primary mode of travel [4] Group 2 - The State Administration for Market Regulation reported that 1.3977 million problematic power banks were recalled in 2025, with ongoing efforts to strengthen product recall supervision [5] - In 2025, real estate development investment in Henan Province is projected to decline by 8.6%, with residential investment down by 9.6% [6] - Pinduoduo was fined 100,000 yuan for failing to report tax information as required, highlighting the importance of compliance in business operations [7] Group 3 - Great Wall Motors' new vehicle sales reached 1.3237 million in 2025, with over 500,000 units sold in overseas markets, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.68% [8] - Xibei Catering Group has secured Series A financing, increasing its registered capital by approximately 13.1% [9] - Douyin reported a 90% decrease in rumor exposure in 2025, thanks to improved rumor detection and management systems [10] Group 4 - Douyin's e-commerce division denied the development of a product called "Dou Sheng Sheng," clarifying that it is part of a local service exploration [11] - New Media Co., Ltd. announced that its co-invested dramas are being released as planned, with revenues to be recognized according to the broadcasting schedule [12] - Taobao and Tmall are upgrading their real experience score system and launching a "Good Service" leaderboard for over 1,000 stores [12]

一、房地产开发投资完成情况 2025年，全国房地产开发投资82788亿元，比上年下降17.2%（按可比口径计算，详见附注6）；其中，住宅投资63514亿元，下降16.3%。 2025年，房地产开发企业房屋施工面积659890万平方米，比上年下降10.0%。其中，住宅施工面积460123万平方米，下降10.3%。房屋新开工面积58770万平方米，下降20.4%。其 中，住宅新开工面积42984万平方米，下降19.8%。房屋竣工面积60348万平方米，下降18.1%。其中，住宅竣工面积42830万平方米，下降20.2%。 二、新建商品房销售和待售情况 2025年，新建商品房销售面积88101万平方米，比上年下降8.7%；其中住宅销售面积下降9.2%。新建商品房销售额83937亿元，下降12.6%；其中住宅销售额下降13.0%。 2025年全国房地产市场基本情况 2025年末，商品房待售面积76632万平方米，比上年末增长1.6%，比11月末回落1.0个百分点。其中，住宅待售面积增长2.8%。 三、房地产开发企业到位资金情况 2025年，房地产开发企业到位资金93117亿元，比上年下降13.4%。其中，国内贷款14 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the real estate market in China, specifically focusing on the second-hand housing market in January 2026, highlighting trends in major cities and overall market dynamics. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Activity and Volume**: In early January 2026, the second-hand housing market saw a surprising increase in transaction volume, with 20 cities reporting a month-on-month growth of 7% and a year-on-year increase of approximately 30%, indicating higher market activity than expected [1][4] - **Price Trends**: Despite increased transaction volumes, prices have not stabilized, with a week-on-week decline of -0.19%. The market is showing signs of stabilization, but without significant policy intervention, prices are unlikely to rebound significantly [1][4][8] - **City-Specific Insights**: - **Shanghai**: The Iceberg Index indicates stabilization, but prices remain under pressure as landlords continue to lower listing prices, with a reduction in price adjustments by 20%-25% compared to normal [1][5] - **Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou**: These cities have also seen a narrowing of price declines, but overall price stability remains fragile [1][5] - **Second-Tier Cities**: Cities like Hangzhou are stabilizing, while others like Xi'an are experiencing increased declines. The performance of second-tier cities varies significantly as the market approaches the Lunar New Year [1][9] Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Policy**: The future trajectory of the market heavily depends on the introduction of large-scale stimulus policies. Without such measures, landlords may be at a disadvantage in negotiations, leading to potential further declines in prices [1][6] - **Comparative Analysis with Previous Years**: The transaction volume in January 2026 is notably higher than in previous years, contrasting with typical seasonal declines observed near the Lunar New Year. However, the first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a transaction volume decrease of 10%-20% compared to the same period in 2025 [3][10][11] - **Market Dynamics**: The low liquidity in third and fourth-tier cities results in slower price declines, with expected drops of around 10% compared to 15% in new first-tier cities. This is attributed to longer transaction cycles in lower-tier cities [12][13] - **Rental Yield and Price Relationship**: The relationship between rental yields and price declines is weak, with high rental yield areas not necessarily showing better price resilience. Overall, rental yield has limited influence on housing prices [15][16] - **Buyer Demographics**: Current buyers are characterized by increased purchasing power due to lower interest rates and reduced down payments, leading to a surge in second-hand housing transactions despite price declines [17] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the real estate market in China as of January 2026.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The financial sector is experiencing a cautious outlook, particularly in the real estate market, which shows signs of growth but is subject to seasonal and policy influences. Key data in March and April will be critical for assessing market stability [1][5] - The non-bank financial sector is expected to perform strongly in 2025, with significant growth in both insurance and securities companies. A reduction in margin requirements by exchanges is seen as a preemptive risk control measure with limited impact [1][6] Real Estate Market Insights - Recent data indicates a recovery in the real estate market, with Beijing's transaction volume from January 1 to 18 showing a year-on-year increase of nearly 24% and a month-on-month increase of approximately 13%. However, this recovery may be influenced by seasonal effects and policy changes [2] - The sustainability of this recovery is uncertain, and the performance of data in March and April will be crucial. Without significant policy changes, the market may still face considerable pressure [5] Stock and Real Estate Price Relationship - There is a long-term correlation between stock prices and real estate prices, both reflecting economic fundamentals, but not necessarily a causal relationship. Stock prices reflect corporate earnings growth, while real estate prices are more indicative of income and rental growth [3][4] Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector has faced significant outflows since Q3 of the previous year, with public funds and ETFs reallocating investments. The banking sector has seen the highest decline among major industries since the beginning of the year [7][8] - Despite recent declines, quality bank stocks are viewed as having rebound potential, particularly those with strong fundamentals and benefiting from macroeconomic recovery [7][10] - The current PB (Price-to-Book) valuation of the banking sector is low, with many state-owned banks expected to have dividend yields exceeding 4% in 2025, making them attractive investments [11][12] Future Outlook for Banking Sector - Major commercial banks are expected to maintain stable growth in 2026, with credit growth projected to be in line with national averages. The focus will be on corporate lending, responding to regulatory emphasis on economic efficiency [13] - Quality risks in the banking sector, particularly in retail loans, need to be monitored. The structure of credit is primarily corporate and government-related, which helps stabilize asset quality [14] Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include focusing on high ROE (Return on Equity) regional commercial banks and stable, high-dividend large commercial banks. These institutions are expected to provide stable returns and perform well in long-term investments [15]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The economic structure is shifting towards improvement, with expectations for a strong start in Q1 2026 due to preemptive investment policies, strong export and infrastructure indicators, and early disbursement of funds for "trade-in" programs [1] - Economic data is anticipated to rebound, contributing to a positive economic outlook for the beginning of 2026 [1] Group 2: Bond Market Analysis - As of the end of December 2025, the total bond custody amount reached 178.55 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 0.30 trillion yuan, although this was a decrease compared to the previous month [2] - The bond market shows a trend where commercial banks are increasing their holdings in interest rate bonds, while credit cooperatives are reducing their positions [2] - The economic characteristics of 2025 indicate a "high before low" pattern, with supply outpacing demand and external demand stronger than internal demand [3] - In December 2025, industrial production growth rates increased year-on-year and month-on-month, while fixed asset investment saw a larger decline [3] - The current liquidity in the bond market is relatively loose, and investors are becoming increasingly optimistic, with expectations for the 10Y government bond yield to stabilize around 1.75% in 2026 [3] Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - As of January 18, 2026, the cumulative transaction volume for new homes in 20 cities was 23,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 45.3% [4] - In major cities, Beijing saw 1,398 units sold (-25%), Shanghai 3,534 units (-35%), and Shenzhen 765 units (-75%) [4] - The second-hand housing market also experienced a decline, with a total of 44,000 units sold across 10 cities, down 17.8% year-on-year [4] - In Beijing, 7,033 second-hand homes were sold (-23%), in Shanghai 12,849 units (-8%), and in Shenzhen 2,844 units (-25%) [4]