Report Summary 1) Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents a comprehensive overview of the sugar market, highlighting the production, consumption, and trade trends in both domestic and international markets. It shows an increase in Brazilian sugar production but a decline in exports, and anticipates supply shortages in the global market in the 25/26 and 24/25 seasons. Meanwhile, the domestic market is expected to have stable production and consumption, with concerns about a decrease in the sugar extraction rate and an increase in production costs in Guangxi during the 25/26 season. The trend strength of sugar is rated as -1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [1][2][3][4]. 3) Summary by Directory Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price is 15.85 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.18; the mainstream spot price is 5770 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan year - on - year; the futures main contract price is 5408 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan year - on - year. The 15 spread is 34 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan year - on - year; the 59 spread is - 17 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan year - on - year; the mainstream spot basis is 362 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan year - on - year [1] Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information shows that Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, while its exports declined, raising concerns about global consumption. In September, Brazil exported 325 million tons, a 16% year - on - year decrease; in August, it exported 374 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease; in July, it exported 359 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease. Conab lowered its forecast for Brazil's production in the 25/26 season to 4450 million tons from the previous 4590 million tons. China imported 83 million tons of sugar in August, an increase of 6 million tons [1] Domestic Market - CAOC estimates that China's sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 1116 million tons, consumption will be 1580 million tons, and imports will be 500 million tons; in the 25/26 season, production will be 1120 million tons, consumption will be 1590 million tons, and imports will be 500 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, China produced 1116 million tons of sugar, an increase of 120 million tons, and sold 811 million tons, an increase of 152 million tons, with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7%. As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, China had imported 408 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 27 million tons. The market expects a decline in the sugar extraction rate and an increase in production costs in Guangxi during the 25/26 season [2] International Market - ISO forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 million tons in the 25/26 season and 488 million tons in the 24/25 season. As of October 1 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 2.99 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 3352 million tons, an increase of 28 million tons, and a cumulative MIX of 52.68%, a year - on - year increase of 3.84 percentage points. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 3490 million tons, up from 2950 million tons in the 24/25 season. Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1008 million tons, an increase of 127 million tons [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of sugar is rated as - 1, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a weak bearish outlook [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The ISO predicts a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons [5]. - International raw sugar has fallen below 16 cents again, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar has oscillated downward, hitting a two - year low. With the approaching end of the domestic consumption peak season and a significant increase in imported sugar, the main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures generally oscillates weakly [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, expected global supply surplus in the new season, the oscillation of foreign sugar prices around 16 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The ISO expects a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply deficit in the 25/26 season, a large reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, down 3.1% from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, up 60,000 tons year - on - year; in July, the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, down 68,500 tons year - on - year. The situation is neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5960, and the basis is 486 (01 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is positive [7]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.16 million tons, which is positive [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is negative [7]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is negative [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand situation**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. The ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton deficit, Czarnikow predicts a 4.7 - million - ton surplus, and StoneX predicts a 1.21 - million - ton surplus [36]. - **Sugar production and sales in China**: As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, up 60,000 tons year - on - year; in July, the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, down 68,500 tons year - on - year [5]. - **Price and cost**: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff has shown different levels in different months from 2024 to 2025 [40]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is negative [7]

News Summary Group 1: Market Insights - Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar reaffirmed the government's commitment to protect consumer and supplier interests while ensuring affordability and availability of essential goods, with a decision to approve the import of 500,000 tons of sugar [1] - S&P Global reported a projected decrease of 19.3% in sugarcane crushing in Brazil's Center-South region for the first half of June, amounting to 39.87 million tons, and a 19.9% decrease in sugar production to 2.52 million tons year-on-year [1] - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data indicated that speculators increased their net short positions in raw sugar by 7,496 contracts to 109,203 contracts as of the week ending June 24 [1] Group 2: Analyst Opinions - Guosen Futures noted that while the monsoon in India is strengthening, the southern region is experiencing low rainfall, which may dampen optimistic expectations for local crops. Additionally, Brazil's sugar production is expected to decline significantly compared to the previous year [2] - Green Dahan Futures observed that raw sugar prices rose again, with the market needing to monitor whether significant rainfall will occur in India. Technically, raw sugar shows signs of recovery from low levels, with a focus on the support level at 16 cents per pound [3] - Domestic sugar prices in Zhengzhou have shown a strong trend, supported by a slight rise in external markets and the exit of short positions. The upcoming summer season is expected to improve sugar consumption [3]