10月下半月，巴西中南部地区甘蔗入榨量为3110.8万吨，同比增长14.34%；制糖比为46.02%，较去年同期的45.91%上升0.11个百分点；产糖量为206.8万吨， 同比增长16.4%。截至10月下半月，巴西中南部地区累计甘蔗入榨量为55602.9万吨，同比下降1.97%；制糖比为51.97%，较去年同期的48.59%上升3.38个百 分点；产糖量为3808.5万吨，同比增长1.63%。实际产量数据和市场预期基本一致，丰产仍在榨季末期延续。 需要注意的是，制糖比相比前期有所下滑，市场担忧制糖比快速下滑对整体产量的影响。目前市场普遍预期2025/2026榨季巴西中南部地区糖产量将在4050 万～4150万吨之间，维持丰产格局。展望2026/2027榨季，更多甘蔗或转向乙醇生产，预计巴西中南部地区糖产量回落至4000万吨附近。此外，圣保罗地区 持续干旱，可能影响2026/2027榨季甘蔗生物量积累，需持续跟踪。 [巴西丰产带来高出口] 受干旱天气和宿根蔗经历火灾的影响，巴西2025/2026榨季前期显示甘蔗质量不佳，但是被不断创纪录的超高制糖比所弥补。巴西国家商品供应公司 （Conab）发布的巴西2025 ...

Report Summary 1) Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents a comprehensive overview of the sugar market, highlighting the production, consumption, and trade trends in both domestic and international markets. It shows an increase in Brazilian sugar production but a decline in exports, and anticipates supply shortages in the global market in the 25/26 and 24/25 seasons. Meanwhile, the domestic market is expected to have stable production and consumption, with concerns about a decrease in the sugar extraction rate and an increase in production costs in Guangxi during the 25/26 season. The trend strength of sugar is rated as -1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [1][2][3][4]. 3) Summary by Directory Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price is 15.85 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.18; the mainstream spot price is 5770 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan year - on - year; the futures main contract price is 5408 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan year - on - year. The 15 spread is 34 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan year - on - year; the 59 spread is - 17 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan year - on - year; the mainstream spot basis is 362 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan year - on - year [1] Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information shows that Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, while its exports declined, raising concerns about global consumption. In September, Brazil exported 325 million tons, a 16% year - on - year decrease; in August, it exported 374 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease; in July, it exported 359 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease. Conab lowered its forecast for Brazil's production in the 25/26 season to 4450 million tons from the previous 4590 million tons. China imported 83 million tons of sugar in August, an increase of 6 million tons [1] Domestic Market - CAOC estimates that China's sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 1116 million tons, consumption will be 1580 million tons, and imports will be 500 million tons; in the 25/26 season, production will be 1120 million tons, consumption will be 1590 million tons, and imports will be 500 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, China produced 1116 million tons of sugar, an increase of 120 million tons, and sold 811 million tons, an increase of 152 million tons, with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7%. As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, China had imported 408 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 27 million tons. The market expects a decline in the sugar extraction rate and an increase in production costs in Guangxi during the 25/26 season [2] International Market - ISO forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 million tons in the 25/26 season and 488 million tons in the 24/25 season. As of October 1 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 2.99 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 3352 million tons, an increase of 28 million tons, and a cumulative MIX of 52.68%, a year - on - year increase of 3.84 percentage points. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 3490 million tons, up from 2950 million tons in the 24/25 season. Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1008 million tons, an increase of 127 million tons [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of sugar is rated as - 1, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a weak bearish outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - India plans to resume sugar exports starting from the new crushing season in October 2025, which is expected to impact the international sugar market significantly [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Export Capacity - India, as the world's second-largest sugar producer, anticipates a sugar production of 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, exceeding the domestic consumption demand of approximately 28.5 to 29 million tons [1]. - With an initial stock of 5 million tons, India will have sufficient capacity for sugar exports after meeting domestic needs and record ethanol production requirements [1][2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The resumption of sugar exports is expected to balance the domestic market in India and ensure minimum support prices for sugarcane farmers, while also increasing global sugar supply, potentially exerting downward pressure on current international sugar prices [1][2]. - Market participants are closely monitoring the specific export quota numbers that the Indian government will announce, with expectations that the return to the international sugar trade will create downward pressure on global sugar prices [2]. Group 3: Ethanol Production - India's ethanol production capacity is projected to exceed 4.8 billion liters, highlighting the country's strategic positioning in food security and energy sectors [2].