货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 白糖：巴西中南部食糖产量同比增加 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 【趋势强度】 白糖趋势强度：-1 ■ 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 15.85 | 0.18 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 34 | 2 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5770 | -10 | 59 价差（元/吨） | -17 | 1 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5408 | 5 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 362 | -15 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：巴西 9 月下半月食糖产量同比大幅增加 11%。巴西出口下降，引发对于全球消费的担忧。巴 西 9 月出口 325 万吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - India plans to resume sugar exports starting from the new crushing season in October 2025, which is expected to impact the international sugar market significantly [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Export Capacity - India, as the world's second-largest sugar producer, anticipates a sugar production of 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, exceeding the domestic consumption demand of approximately 28.5 to 29 million tons [1]. - With an initial stock of 5 million tons, India will have sufficient capacity for sugar exports after meeting domestic needs and record ethanol production requirements [1][2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The resumption of sugar exports is expected to balance the domestic market in India and ensure minimum support prices for sugarcane farmers, while also increasing global sugar supply, potentially exerting downward pressure on current international sugar prices [1][2]. - Market participants are closely monitoring the specific export quota numbers that the Indian government will announce, with expectations that the return to the international sugar trade will create downward pressure on global sugar prices [2]. Group 3: Ethanol Production - India's ethanol production capacity is projected to exceed 4.8 billion liters, highlighting the country's strategic positioning in food security and energy sectors [2].