花旗发表报告指，根据该行渠道检查，海底捞在2026年春节假期的翻台率按年增长超过5%。该行预期 海底捞在1-2月的翻台率将实现正增长。由于海底捞及其他内地休闲餐厅于春节堂食市场的市占提升， 因春节期间临时休业店数按年减少，预期海底捞2026年第一季销售将持续复苏。海底捞仍为该行中国餐 饮板块的首选股，目标价19.7港元，评级"买入"。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a stable performance in 2025, with revenue increasing by 0.5% year-on-year to RMB 14.72 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 10.4% to RMB 1.23 billion, aligning with market expectations [7]. - The company demonstrated resilience in operations, maintaining stable sales volume and pricing despite a challenging market environment characterized by weak demand and low restaurant consumption [7]. - The introduction of new products and a potential recovery in the restaurant sector in 2026 are seen as opportunities for growth [7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: RMB 14,815 million - 2024A: RMB 14,645 million - 2025E: RMB 14,722 million - 2026E: RMB 15,098 million - 2027E: RMB 15,521 million - Growth Rate: 5.5% (2023A), -1.1% (2024A), 0.5% (2025E), 2.6% (2026E), 2.8% (2027E) [3][11] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: RMB 1,337 million - 2024A: RMB 1,115 million - 2025E: RMB 1,231 million - 2026E: RMB 1,295 million - 2027E: RMB 1,366 million - Growth Rate: 5.8% (2023A), -16.6% (2024A), 10.4% (2025E), 5.2% (2026E), 5.4% (2027E) [3][11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: RMB 2.76 - 2024A: RMB 2.30 - 2025E: RMB 2.54 - 2026E: RMB 2.68 - 2027E: RMB 2.82 [3][11] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 24.1 (2023A), 27.4 (2024A), 21.4 (2025E), 20.3 (2026E), 19.3 (2027E) [3][11] - Return on Equity (ROE): 62.5% (2023A), 94.0% (2024A), 103.9% (2025E), 109.3% (2026E), 115.2% (2027E) [3][11] - EV/EBITDA: 7.7 (2023A), 7.9 (2024A), 6.4 (2025E), 5.8 (2026E), 5.2 (2027E) [3][11]

Group 1 - The consumer sector is experiencing multiple favorable factors, with strong demand for staple foods like condiments, dairy products, and snacks as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a significant recovery in industry sentiment [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments have issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan," encouraging local governments to increase subsidies for replacing old consumer goods during the festival and to enhance support for offline retail [1] - Dongguan Securities notes that market volatility has increased in the short term, with different sub-sectors of consumer goods showing varied operational rhythms, leading to a continued divergence in internal performance [1] Group 2 - The beer sector should focus on demand and cost indicators, while the condiment sector should pay attention to consumer recovery, costs, and product structure optimization [1] - The dairy sector is expected to benefit from improved population expectations due to fertility policy catalysts, boosting demand [1] - The snack and soft drink sectors should continue to focus on core products and channels that contribute to incremental growth [1] Group 3 - As of February 5, 2026, the CSI All Food Index (H30192) rose by 1.12%, with notable increases in stocks such as Anji Food (+9.99%), Tianwei Food (+8.65%), and Hongmian Co. (+7.44%) [1] - The Food ETF Penghua (560130) increased by 1.21%, marking its third consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 1 yuan [1] Group 4 - The Food ETF Penghua closely tracks the CSI All Food Index, providing an analytical tool for investors by categorizing the index samples into various industry levels [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All Food Index (H30192) include Haitian Flavoring, Yili, and Shuanghui Development, collectively accounting for 48.78% of the index [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities maintains a "strongly recommended" rating for Yihai International (01579), highlighting performance improvement and high dividends as key attractions. The company is expected to benefit from positive changes in related party transactions and continued double-digit growth in third-party business, particularly in overseas and B-end markets [1] Group 1: Performance and Dividends - The core highlights for the company are performance improvement and high dividends. Previously, the decline in related party business prices constrained performance and affected valuation, but this obstacle is expected to improve. The company has initiated high dividends starting in 2023, with future dividend rates expected to remain high [1] - The estimated EPS for 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 0.81 and 0.88 yuan, respectively, with a corresponding valuation of 15X for 2026. The dividend yield for both years is expected to exceed 6%, driven by restaurant recovery and improvements in related party transactions [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability - For the second half of 2025, the company anticipates low single-digit revenue growth, with improvements in gross sales margin due to increased factory prices and enhanced channel expenses to support market demand. The overall profit growth is expected to exceed 20% [2] - The company is focusing on improving supply chain efficiency, which is expected to positively impact gross margins. A one-time payment of historical dividend prepayment taxes in 2024 will lead to a higher tax rate, but the tax rate is expected to normalize in 2025, releasing approximately 50 million in profits [2] Group 3: Third-party Business Growth - The third-party business is stable, with significant growth in B-end and overseas markets. The company is reforming direct channels to recover profits and has successfully partnered with major retailers like Hema and Dingdong Maicai. The overseas business is expanding rapidly, particularly in Southeast Asia, with a dual-brand strategy [3] - The B-end revenue is expected to double in 2025, primarily driven by partnerships with key clients. The company plans to enhance the profitability of the B-end by optimizing product offerings and reducing reliance on distributors [3] Group 4: Related Party Business Improvement - The return of the founder of Haidilao is expected to boost morale and management within the company, leading to improved related party business. The founder's emphasis on quality management and new brand development is anticipated to benefit Yihai as a supplier [4] - As the overall demand in the restaurant sector recovers, the gross margin and supply volume of Yihai's related party business are expected to improve [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities maintains a "strongly recommended" rating for Yihai International (01579), highlighting performance improvement and attractive dividends as key points, with expectations for a high dividend payout ratio in the future [1] Group 1: Performance Improvement and Dividends - The company's core highlights are performance improvement and high dividends, with previous price reductions from related party businesses having constrained performance and valuation, but this pressure is expected to ease [1] - The company is anticipated to maintain a high dividend payout ratio starting in 2023, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.81 and 0.88 yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, corresponding to a valuation of 15X in 2026 [1] - The expected dividend yield for 2025 and 2026 is projected to exceed 6%, with a target valuation of 22X for 2026, leading to a target stock price of HKD 21.5, representing a 44% upside [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability Insights - For the second half of 2025, the company expects low single-digit revenue growth, with improvements in gross sales margin due to increased factory prices and enhanced channel support for distributors [2] - The company is also expected to improve supply chain efficiency, contributing positively to gross margins, while a one-time tax payment in 2024 is projected to lead to a profit release of around 50 million yuan in 2025 [2] Group 3: Third-Party Business Growth - The third-party business is stable, with significant growth expected in B-end and overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, South America, Africa, and the Middle East [3] - The B-end revenue is projected to double in 2025, driven by deepening cooperation with key clients and the establishment of a small B-end team aiming to optimize product offerings [3] Group 4: Related Party Business Improvement - The return of Haidilao's founder, Zhang Yong, is expected to boost morale and management within the company, with a focus on enhancing the quality of products supplied to Haidilao [4] - The association with Haidilao is anticipated to improve Yihai's related party business, with expectations for increased gross margins and supply volumes as the restaurant sector recovers [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Insights - The company's core highlights include performance improvement and high dividends, with expectations for a continued high dividend payout ratio in the future [6][7] - The return of the founder of Haidilao is expected to positively impact the company's related party business, enhancing morale and management within the organization [6][7] - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.81 and 0.88 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target valuation of 22 times earnings, leading to a target price of HKD 21.5, representing a 44% upside potential [6][7] Financial Performance - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 2% in 2025 and 8% in 2026, with total revenue projected to reach HKD 6,659 million in 2025 and HKD 7,190 million in 2026 [8][12] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at HKD 835 million, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth, while the net profit for 2026 is projected to be HKD 909 million, with a 9% growth [8][12] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain stable around 16.7% for 2026 [13] Business Segments - The third-party business is anticipated to continue its robust growth, particularly in overseas and B-end markets, with a significant increase in B-end revenue expected to double in 2025 [6][7] - The C-end business is undergoing channel reforms to enhance profitability, with successful partnerships established with major retailers [6][7] Dividend Policy - The company has initiated a high dividend payout starting in 2023, with expectations for the dividend yield to exceed 6% in 2025 and 2026 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Yum China (YUMC.US) experienced a rise of over 4%, closing at $44.42, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company amid a broader recovery in the restaurant industry driven by supply-side adjustments rather than short-term demand spikes [1] Group 1: Industry Recovery - The current recovery in the restaurant sector is attributed to deep supply-side adjustments, with inefficient capacities gradually being eliminated [1] - Leading brands are enhancing operational models and refining single-store models to improve overall operational efficiency [1] - Companies with refined management capabilities are showing clear competitive advantages in the market [1] Group 2: Company Strengths - Yum China possesses supply chain advantages and demonstrates strong operational capabilities, contributing to its stable profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yum China (YUMC.US) experienced a rise of over 4%, closing at $44.42, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company amid a recovering restaurant industry [1] Industry Summary - The current recovery in the restaurant sector is attributed to deep adjustments on the supply side, rather than short-term demand driven by "low base + revenge consumption" as seen in 2023 [1] - Inefficient production capacities are gradually being eliminated, allowing leading brands to enhance operational efficiency through optimized operational models and refined single-store models [1] - Companies with strong capabilities in refined management are showing clear competitive advantages in the market [1] Company Summary - Yum China is noted for its supply chain advantages and refined operational capabilities, which contribute to its stable profitability [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its direct sales channels and is focusing on new product development and channel expansion [7][8] - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in FY24, but there are signs of recovery in Q1 FY25 with a slight revenue increase [2][3] - The company is actively investing in R&D and expanding its product lines, particularly in baked goods and frozen prepared dishes, to meet customer demand [7][12] Financial Performance Summary - In FY24, the company achieved revenue of 1.868 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.71%, and a net profit of 84 million, down 37.67% [2][10] - The revenue for Q4 FY24 was 504 million, reflecting an 11.93% decline year-on-year, while Q1 FY25 saw revenue of 470 million, a 1.5% increase year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for FY24 was 23.66%, showing a slight decline compared to previous periods, primarily due to price adjustments in staple and snack products [4][6] Expense and Profitability Analysis - The company faced increased selling and administrative expenses, with the selling expense ratio rising significantly in Q1 FY25 due to heightened online promotion efforts [5] - The net profit margin for FY24 was 4.48%, which has been under pressure due to declining gross margins and increased expenses [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to explore C-end business opportunities and diversify sales channels, including e-commerce and traditional retail [12] - There is an expectation of improved performance as the restaurant market recovers and the company's expansion efforts take effect [8] - Revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have been adjusted to 2.030 billion and 2.231 billion, respectively, with EPS estimates revised to 0.97 and 1.07 [9][10]

Macro Analysis - In April 2025, fiscal revenue and expenditure improved, with notable highlights including accelerated fiscal spending, particularly in infrastructure-related areas [2] - Fiscal revenue showed marginal improvement compared to Q1, with tax revenue recovering while non-tax revenue growth slowed [2] - The land market showed signs of improvement, supported by the issuance of new special bonds, leading to significant enhancements in government fund income and expenditure [2] Coal Industry - In 2024, coal companies are expected to see a decline in operating revenue and a decrease in operating cash flow, with significant net outflows in investment cash flow [3] - Financing cash flow continues to show net outflows, with high leverage levels and increasing debt, yet overall debt repayment capacity remains strong [3] - Profitability for coal companies in 2025 is anticipated to be constrained, but there is still support for overall profitability, with relatively ample operating cash flow [3] Bond Market - In April 2025, the total bond custody volume saw a slight increase month-on-month, with all types of bonds showing net increases [4] - Policy banks significantly reduced their bond custody volume, while other major institutions in the bond market increased their holdings [4] - The balance of repurchase bonds decreased seasonally, leading to a decline in the bond market leverage ratio [4] Restaurant Industry - The restaurant industry is expected to recover, with a gradual increase in market activity observed in Q1 2025 compared to the entire year of 2024 [5] - The number of restaurant outlets has increased, particularly in first-tier cities, driven by policy stimuli that are likely to enhance demand [5] - There is a notable trend towards affordable dining options, with high opening rates for essential and low-cost categories, indicating a continued focus on supply chain-related stocks [5] Power AI Industry - Vertiv plans to launch an 800 VDC power product series in the second half of 2026, supporting NVIDIA's computing platform [6] - This announcement aligns with market trends regarding AI data center power solutions, further validating the HVDC industry trajectory [6] - Recommended stocks to watch include Zhongheng Electric, Hewei Electric, Shenghong Co., Sifang Co., Magmi Tech, Kehua Data, and Keda [6] Transportation Industry - Recent easing of trade tensions between the US and China is expected to sustain the recovery in container shipping demand [9] - The average freight rates for US West and East Coast routes have increased significantly, with rates reaching 3091 and 4069 USD/FEU, respectively, reflecting a rise of 31.7% and 22.0% [9] Real Estate Company - Huafa Co. maintains stable dividend payouts while being cautious in investment and construction, with a notable decline in settlement resources [10] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 820 million, 960 million, and 1.12 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 15, and 12 times [10] - As a local leading state-owned enterprise, Huafa Co. has a solid financial position and focuses on quality land reserves in core cities, maintaining an "increase" rating [10]