Workflow
饲料养殖产业链
icon
Search documents
养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20251016
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The current inventory in China continues to accumulate with sufficient supply, but in the fourth - quarter consumption peak, the inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline, and the futures price center may move up slightly. Short - term prices may fluctuate due to sufficient inventory, while the medium - to - long - term outlook is positive [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The market is bearish due to the expected relaxation of Canadian rapeseed - related policies. However, domestic supply will gradually tighten, and enterprises are strongly willing to hold prices. It is recommended to wait and see or use options to protect positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of the main contract dropped on Wednesday. The medium - to - long - term price outlook is positive, and it is recommended to go long after the price stabilizes [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: Global soybean production areas have good weather, and domestic supply is abundant. The price of soybean meal is expected to remain weak, and it is recommended to short lightly or sell out - of - the - money call options. For bean No. 2, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price is weak. Although there is limited upside drive, the downside space is also limited. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract rapeseed oil - meal ratio [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market has a bearish background. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: With new domestic soybeans on the market and active downstream purchases, it is recommended to go long lightly [6]. - **Peanuts**: The new - season output increase expectation is discounted. It is recommended to hold long positions for now [6]. - **Hogs**: The spot price has rebounded after falling. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long on the 2607 contract after capacity reduction is confirmed [7][8]. - **Eggs**: The futures price has rebounded from the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on the 2512 contract at low prices [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Bean No. 1 is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long lightly; Bean No. 2 is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to wait and see; Peanuts are expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil is expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is recommended to go long lightly; Rapeseed oil is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to wait and see; Palm oil is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to go long after stabilization [11]. - **Proteins**: Soybean meal is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to hold short positions; Rapeseed meal is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch are expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [11]. - **Livestock Farming**: Hogs and eggs are expected to find the bottom with fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: Most varieties are recommended to wait and see, while hogs and eggs are recommended to conduct positive arbitrage at low prices [12]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For some oil and protein varieties, it is recommended to conduct long or short operations, and for oil - meal ratios, it is recommended to go long [12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis information for various varieties in different sectors [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes import cost data for soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows inventory and operating rate data for various oilseeds and oils, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, and their related products [17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes data on corn consumption, inventory, and starch enterprise operating rate and inventory [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Daily Data**: It shows the daily price changes of hogs and eggs in different regions [19][20]. - **Weekly Data**: It provides key weekly data on hogs and eggs, including price, cost, profit, and production - related data [21][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Hogs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of futures and spot prices, and other related data of hogs and eggs [25][28]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: It includes charts of production, inventory, import, and price spread data for palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [33][44][53]. - **Feed**: It includes charts of price, inventory, consumption, and profit data for corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [59][66][77]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It includes charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various varieties [92]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It includes charts of warehouse receipt quantities for various varieties [95].
养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20251015
Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Oil**: China's soybean oil inventory continues to accumulate with sufficient supply and currently lacks bullish drivers. However, as the traditional consumption season in Q4 and the best - value oil, inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline, and the futures price center may move up slightly. It's advisable to hold long positions in the main contract, with support at 8150 - 8200 yuan/ton and resistance at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Despite macro - risk disturbances and a weakening in the futures market, the spot basis remains firm. With anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports, supply will gradually tighten. Although high current inventory restricts the futures price, there is a strong de - stocking expectation. It's recommended to wait for stabilization and then go long lightly, with support at 9768 - 9785 and resistance at 10249 - 10266 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The recent decline in crude oil and increased palm oil production in Malaysia have led to a price drop. But the inventory pressure in Southeast Asian production areas is not large, and with the B50 test in Indonesia, the supply - demand situation is expected to narrow in Q4. Aggressive strategies can consider holding long positions or buying out - of - the - money call options after stabilization, with support at 9230 - 9270 and resistance at 9650 - 9680 [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The supply of soybean meal and bean No. 2 is abundant, and the consumption of soybean meal is entering the off - season. The futures price of soybean meal is likely to remain weak. It's recommended to hold short positions lightly or sell out - of - the - money call options for soybean meal, and consider going long on the 01 contract oil - meal ratio [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The upward driving force is insufficient, but the downside is limited. There is no obvious single - side trading opportunity. Consider going long on the 01 contract rapeseed oil - meal ratio, with support at 2354 - 2370 and resistance at 2474 - 2500 [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market is also bearish due to the new - season harvest and poor downstream profits. It's recommended to hold short positions cautiously, with the 11 - contract corn support at 2000 - 2050 and resistance at 2180 - 2200, and the 11 - contract corn starch support at 2340 - 2350 and resistance at 2500 - 2520 [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The new - season soybeans in the Northeast are on the market, and the price is polarized. With low valuation and active downstream purchases, it's advisable to go long lightly, with support at 3900 - 3930 yuan/ton and resistance at 4030 - 4050 yuan/ton [5]. - **Peanuts**: Although the new - season peanut production is expected to increase, the adverse weather in Henan has affected yields. It's recommended to hold long positions temporarily, with support at 7550 - 7900 and resistance at 8020 - 8160 [5]. - **Pigs**: The futures and spot prices stopped falling and rebounded. The industry is reducing weights and increasing the supply. It's advisable for cautious investors to hold short - near and long - far spreads, and wait for capacity reduction to buy the 2607 contract at low prices [7]. - **Eggs**: The futures price continued to rebound from the bottom. The spot price is in the off - season. It's recommended to avoid shorting blindly. Aggressive investors can go long on the 2512 contract at low prices, with the reference range at 2950 - 3200 points [7]. Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support | Resistance | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 11 | New domestic soybeans are in abundant supply, and downstream purchases are relatively active under low valuation | 3900 - 3930 | 4030 - 4050 | Oscillating strongly | Go long lightly | | | Soybean No. 2 11 | Sufficient current inventory of oil - pressing soybeans, continuous Sino - US trade friction, and no purchase of new - season US soybeans | 3500 - 3540 | 3675 - 3700 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see | | | Peanut 11 | Increasing market supply, poor yield performance in parts of Henan | 7500 - 7600 | 8020 - 8162 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 01 | Little change in fundamentals, affected by crude oil fluctuations. Sufficient supply currently, and the supply - demand outlook is positive in Q4 | 8150 - 8200 | 8400 - 8450 | Oscillating up | Go long lightly | | | Rapeseed Oil 01 | Fewer purchase orders, de - stocking expected | 9768 - 9785 | 10249 - 10266 | Oscillating adjustment | Go long after stabilization | | | Palm 01 | Malaysian palm oil production exceeds expectations, but inventory pressure in production areas is not large. Indonesia plans to promote B50, and the long - term outlook is bullish | 9230 - 9270 | 9650 - 9680 | Oscillating adjustment | Go long after stabilization | | Protein | Soybean Meal 01 | Sufficient inventory of oil - pressing soybeans and soybean meal, and the feed demand for soybean meal is expected to weaken in Q4. The bullish factor is the continuous Sino - US trade friction | 2800 - 2850 | 2960 - 2970 | Oscillating adjustment | Hold short positions | | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, and seasonal demand weakening | 2354 - 2370 | 2474 - 2500 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | The market is under pressure seasonally, but the listing rhythm may have some disturbances | 2000 - 2050 | 2180 - 2200 | Bearish expectation | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 11 | The cost of corn is under pressure, and the spot supply is slightly loose. The futures price of starch follows the downward trend | 2340 - 2350 | 2500 - 2520 | Bearish expectation | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Pigs 11 | Feed prices stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened | 12800 - 13000 | 13000 - 13800 | Oscillating to find the bottom | Switch to waiting and seeing | | | Eggs 12 | Capacity pressure + expectation of the consumption peak season | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Oscillating to find the bottom | Wait and see | [10] b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Arbitrage**: Most varieties are recommended to wait and see, except for pigs 1 - 3 and eggs 10 - 1, which are recommended to go long at low prices [12]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For oils, 01 soybean oil - palm oil is recommended for short - biased operation, 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil for long - biased operation, and 01 rapeseed oil - palm oil to wait and see. For protein, 01 soybean meal - rapeseed meal is in low - level oscillation. For the oil - meal ratio, the 01 soybean oil - meal ratio and 01 rapeseed oil - meal ratio are recommended for long - biased operation. For energy and by - products, 11 starch - corn is recommended to wait and see [12]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Main Contract Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 3960 | 3960 | - 7 | 94 | | | Soybean No. 2 | 3960 | 3960 | 347 | 39 | | | Peanuts | 7400 | 7400 | - 342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean Oil | 8620 | 8620 | 310 | 8 | | | Rapeseed Oil | 10180 | 30 | 221 | - 35 | | | Palm Oil | 9280 | 20 | - 50 | 54 | | Protein | Soybean Meal | 2920 | - 10 | 78 | 78 | | | Rapeseed Meal | 2430 | - 30 | 82 | 14 | | Energy and By - products | Corn | 2120 | - 20 | 58 | 3 | | | Starch | 2570 | 0 | 169 | - 17 | | Livestock | Pigs | 10.92 yuan/kg | 0.07 yuan/kg | - 450 | - 275 | | | Eggs | 2.42 yuan/jin | - 0.07 yuan/jin | 48 yuan/500kg | - 44 yuan/500kg | [13] 2. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: Includes import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods [14]. - **Weekly Data**: Shows the inventory and operation rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [16]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: Presents the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil [16]. - **Weekly Data**: Displays the consumption, inventory, operation rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [17]. c. Livestock - **Daily Data**: Provides the daily price changes of live pigs and eggs [18][19]. - **Weekly Data**: Shows the key weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, costs, profits, and production - related data [20][22]. 3. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock End (Pigs, Eggs)**: Includes charts of futures and spot prices of pigs and eggs, as well as related prices such as piglets and white - striped pigs [24]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: Covers production, inventory, import, and price - related charts in Malaysia [34]. - **Soybean Oil**: Includes charts of US soybean crushing, inventory, and domestic operation rates and inventory [41]. - **Peanuts**: Involves charts of market supply, processing, and price - related data [50]. - **Feed End**: - **Corn**: Includes price, inventory, import, and processing - profit - related charts [56]. - **Corn Starch**: Covers price, operation rate, and inventory - related charts [64]. - **Rapeseed**: Includes spot price, inventory, and basis - related charts [68]. - **Soybean Meal**: Involves US soybean growth, inventory, and price - spread - related charts [74]. 4. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Includes historical volatility charts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open - interest charts of corn [90]. 5. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Shows the warehouse receipt quantity and open - interest charts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [93].