财达期货｜股指期货周报 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2025-11-24 研究员 姓名：李津文 从业资格号： F0244287 Z0012495 大幅下挫，弱势难改 行情回顾: 上周四个股指期货品种走势以大幅下跌为主，其中中证 1000 和中证 500 的调整幅度相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差随着现货 市场大跌而贴水深度改善，但全部主力合约合约仍保持期货贴水模 式。期指主力合约期货-现货基差，IH 收于-9.45，IF 收于-25.21， IC 收于-47.41，IM 收于-49.5。 投资咨询号： 上周 A 股市场弱势开盘，大幅下跌结尾。之前大盘指数的技术 指标已出现走弱的信号，行业上通信、算力、半导体等权重科技板 块走弱，具有防守性质的银行板块大幅上涨，这是市场走弱的技术 层面原因。此外，全球主要市场进入高波动阶段，对 A 股也造成了 较大影响。周四美股暴跌，纳斯达克指数日内跌幅接近 5%，其背 后是市场对美国陷入滞胀的担忧有所增加，以及英伟达公布亮眼财 报后公司股价不涨反跌，市场对其美股大型科技股高估值的担忧仍 未消散。放量下跌之后，市场企稳需有一个过程。但需要看到，短 线的快速下跌也有利于消化对科技估值较 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a decline in technology stocks, with the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping nearly 3% due to concerns over high valuations and changing interest rate expectations [1] - Alibaba's stock fell by 4.44% to HKD 154.7, while Tencent's stock decreased by 1.75% to HKD 644.5, reflecting the broader market trend [1] - The Federal Reserve officials expressed hawkish sentiments, raising concerns about inflation uncertainty and adopting a cautious stance on future interest rate cuts, leading to a decrease in the market's expectation for a rate cut in December to below 50% [1] Group 2 - According to a report from CMB International, the decline in expectations for a December rate cut has intensified investor concerns regarding the high valuations of technology stocks [1] - Guosen Securities noted that as major US companies release their Q3 earnings, the impact of AI on advertising, cloud computing, and corporate efficiency remains significant, with companies continuing to invest actively [1] - However, the market is increasingly focusing on the return on investment (ROI) behind substantial capital expenditures (CAPEX) [1] - Additionally, Ant Group's investment in Yao Cai has not met completion conditions, which may extend the final deadline [1]