Vatee万腾平台据悉，美联储主席鲍威尔近日强调，央行必须远离政治干预，以确保能够专注于保持通 胀稳定和高就业率。这一表态凸显了美联储在制定货币政策时的独立性和专业性。鲍威尔的言论也反映 了美联储在当前经济形势下的谨慎态度，特别是在全球贸易紧张局势和经济不确定性增加的背景下。 经济形势与政策挑战 美联储主席鲍威尔强调央行必须远离政治干预，以确保能够专注于保持通胀稳定和高就业率。美联储即 将进入静默期，市场普遍预期其将连续第三次维持利率不变。未来，美联储需要在维持经济增长和控制 通胀之间找到平衡，同时应对全球经济的不确定性。投资者应密切关注美联储的政策动态和经济数据的 发布，以做出更为合理的投资决策。 美联储进入静默期 美联储将于26日开始进入静默期，这意味着美联储官员在这一期间将避免发表任何可能影响市场预期的 言论。这一措施旨在确保货币政策决策的独立性和透明度，避免市场预期受到不必要的干扰。 市场预期利率决议维持不变 市场普遍预期，美联储在即将到来的利率决议中将连续第三次维持利率不变。这一预期反映了市场对当 前经济形势的判断，特别是考虑到全球经济的不确定性以及贸易紧张局势对经济增长的影响。尽管美国 经济在某些 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the Fed Chair emphasizes the central bank's independence from political intervention, and the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for the third - consecutive time. The US consumer confidence index hits a new low, and the inflation rate expectation reaches a new high. The Chinese government emphasizes timely reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to support the real economy, which is positive for risk sentiment. - Fundamentally, the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is in progress, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, so the shortage of tin ore is expected to improve in the second half of the year. The smelting end has problems such as low - grade ore shortage in Yunnan and limited waste supply in Jiangxi, with low operating rates. The demand side has a slowdown in tin use for PV welding tapes but significant growth in high - purity tin demand from AI servers and quantum computing. During the current peak demand season, the downstream purchasing atmosphere improves, and inventories decline, but there is also a fear of high prices. - Technically, the trading is cautious with reduced positions, testing the MA60 resistance and paying attention to the MA10 support. The operation suggestion is a light - position long - term thinking, focusing on the range of 25,900 - 27,000 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 260,570 yuan/ton, down 2,270 yuan; the 5 - 6 - month contract closing price is down 20 yuan, and the LME 3 - month tin price is 31,975 US dollars/ton, up 212 US dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 12,035 lots, down 5,566 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 432 lots, down 947 lots. - The LME tin total inventory is 2,810 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 9,249 tons, down 322 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 430 tons, up 45 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 260,200 yuan/ton, down 2,800 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 260,130 yuan/ton, down 3,050 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 370 yuan/ton, down 530 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 166.99 US dollars/ton, up 2.01 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 246,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 250,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan. - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 7,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 169,100 yuan/ton, down 2,270 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed Chair emphasizes the central bank's independence from political intervention, and the Fed enters a quiet period. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for the third - consecutive time. - The US April Michigan University consumer confidence index final value is 52.2, a new low since July 2022, and the one - year inflation rate expectation final value is 6.5%, a new high since January 1980. - The Politburo of the Communist Party of China emphasizes timely reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to support the real economy [3].