Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in October is almost certain, with market expectations indicating an 85.5% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, driven by weak economic data and a deteriorating job market [1][2][13]. Economic Data and Employment - The core PCE price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in August, maintaining a year-on-year rate of 2.9%, which, while above the Fed's 2% target, shows stability that could allow for a rate cut [2]. - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls declining and the unemployment rate increasing, leading to concerns about the need for a preemptive rate cut [2][3]. Market Expectations - The market has heavily positioned itself for a rate cut, with CME data showing an 85.5% probability for a 25 basis point cut in October and a 91.9% expectation for further cuts in December [2][8]. Policy Shift - The Fed's decision-making logic is clear: weak economic data and a declining job market, combined with stable inflation, support a lower interest rate environment [3][12]. - The focus of the Fed's policy is shifting from combating inflation to addressing economic slowdown, marking a significant transition in monetary policy [12]. Impact on Consumers and Markets - A rate cut in October would likely lower borrowing costs for consumers, potentially stimulating spending and supporting the stock market [4]. - The Fed's cautious approach suggests that the rate cut will not lead to aggressive monetary easing but rather a gradual adjustment based on economic data [6]. Global Implications - The Fed's decision to cut rates will have significant global repercussions, likely weakening the dollar and attracting capital flows into emerging markets [7]. Conclusion - The October rate cut by the Federal Reserve is almost a certainty, serving as a preventive measure against potential economic downturns and signaling a critical shift in monetary policy focus [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The macro environment for the Euro has dramatically shifted, with its trajectory now more dependent on the divergence in monetary policy expectations between the US and Europe rather than solely on European economic resilience [1] Group 1: European Central Bank (ECB) Policy - The ECB maintained its key interest rate at 2.0% during the July 24 meeting, entering a cautious "wait-and-see" period to assess the complex situation of stable inflation but weak growth [1] - ECB officials have set a high threshold for further rate cuts, indicating no immediate signs of inflation deviating from the target [6] - The ECB's current stance is passive, focusing on ensuring inflation stability around the 2.0% target, with no urgent need for action based on current economic data [6] Group 2: US Economic Data Impact - The US non-farm payroll report released on August 1 showed only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, with prior months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs [1] - This weak data shifted market expectations for the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in September rising from about 40% to over 90% [1][8] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve is currently in conflict, as rising inflation pressures contrast with a weakening labor market, leading to potential long-term policy uncertainty [9] Group 3: Economic Indicators in Europe - Recent data from Germany shows signs of cautious optimism, with the Ifo Business Climate Index reaching its highest point in nearly a year and the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index exceeding expectations [4] - However, France's private sector continues to contract, negatively impacting the overall Eurozone performance, highlighting the uneven nature of the recovery [5] - The divergence in economic data, with improving sentiment in Germany but weak hard data, suggests that the recovery remains fragile [5][6] Group 4: Market Reactions and Scenarios - The shift in US monetary policy expectations has placed significant downward pressure on the US dollar index (DXY), providing a favorable environment for the EUR/USD exchange rate [2][9] - Potential bullish scenarios for the Euro depend on upcoming US economic data confirming labor market weakness without a dramatic rise in inflation [10] - Conversely, bearish scenarios could arise if US inflation data exceeds expectations, potentially halting the dollar's decline and putting pressure back on the Euro [10]

美联储主席鲍威尔：良好的通胀预期使我们能够在不危及通胀稳定的情况下为部署工作提供后续支持。 ...

Vatee万腾平台据悉，美联储主席鲍威尔近日强调，央行必须远离政治干预，以确保能够专注于保持通 胀稳定和高就业率。这一表态凸显了美联储在制定货币政策时的独立性和专业性。鲍威尔的言论也反映 了美联储在当前经济形势下的谨慎态度，特别是在全球贸易紧张局势和经济不确定性增加的背景下。 经济形势与政策挑战 美联储主席鲍威尔强调央行必须远离政治干预，以确保能够专注于保持通胀稳定和高就业率。美联储即 将进入静默期，市场普遍预期其将连续第三次维持利率不变。未来，美联储需要在维持经济增长和控制 通胀之间找到平衡，同时应对全球经济的不确定性。投资者应密切关注美联储的政策动态和经济数据的 发布，以做出更为合理的投资决策。 美联储进入静默期 美联储将于26日开始进入静默期，这意味着美联储官员在这一期间将避免发表任何可能影响市场预期的 言论。这一措施旨在确保货币政策决策的独立性和透明度，避免市场预期受到不必要的干扰。 市场预期利率决议维持不变 市场普遍预期，美联储在即将到来的利率决议中将连续第三次维持利率不变。这一预期反映了市场对当 前经济形势的判断，特别是考虑到全球经济的不确定性以及贸易紧张局势对经济增长的影响。尽管美国 经济在某些 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the Fed Chair emphasizes the central bank's independence from political intervention, and the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for the third - consecutive time. The US consumer confidence index hits a new low, and the inflation rate expectation reaches a new high. The Chinese government emphasizes timely reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to support the real economy, which is positive for risk sentiment. - Fundamentally, the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is in progress, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, so the shortage of tin ore is expected to improve in the second half of the year. The smelting end has problems such as low - grade ore shortage in Yunnan and limited waste supply in Jiangxi, with low operating rates. The demand side has a slowdown in tin use for PV welding tapes but significant growth in high - purity tin demand from AI servers and quantum computing. During the current peak demand season, the downstream purchasing atmosphere improves, and inventories decline, but there is also a fear of high prices. - Technically, the trading is cautious with reduced positions, testing the MA60 resistance and paying attention to the MA10 support. The operation suggestion is a light - position long - term thinking, focusing on the range of 25,900 - 27,000 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 260,570 yuan/ton, down 2,270 yuan; the 5 - 6 - month contract closing price is down 20 yuan, and the LME 3 - month tin price is 31,975 US dollars/ton, up 212 US dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 12,035 lots, down 5,566 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 432 lots, down 947 lots. - The LME tin total inventory is 2,810 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 9,249 tons, down 322 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 430 tons, up 45 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 260,200 yuan/ton, down 2,800 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 260,130 yuan/ton, down 3,050 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 370 yuan/ton, down 530 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 166.99 US dollars/ton, up 2.01 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 246,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 250,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan. - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 7,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 169,100 yuan/ton, down 2,270 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed Chair emphasizes the central bank's independence from political intervention, and the Fed enters a quiet period. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for the third - consecutive time. - The US April Michigan University consumer confidence index final value is 52.2, a new low since July 2022, and the one - year inflation rate expectation final value is 6.5%, a new high since January 1980. - The Politburo of the Communist Party of China emphasizes timely reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to support the real economy [3].

鲍威尔在IMF最新讲话中高调宣示：美联储必须独立，绝不受政治干预。他宁愿背负"太迟先生"的骂 名，也绝不冒险出错。 这些言论以及特朗普关于解雇鲍威尔的公开言论引发了华尔街的不安，投资者担心央行的独立性可能受 到威胁。特朗普随后表示，他无意解雇美联储主席。 在FOMC决策者于5月6日至7日召开下一次会议之前，美联储于上周六开始其惯常的静默期。预计官员 们将在这次会议上连续第三次维持利率稳定。鲍威尔和其他官员表示愿意暂时按兵不动，部分原因是为 了防范特朗普的关税政策可能导致持续通胀。 鲍威尔一直强调央行独立性的重要性，并表示美联储官员在制定政策时不会考虑政治因素。鲍威尔在此 前的评论中说，他和他的同事们不会被免职，除非"有原因"。 鲍威尔4月16日在芝加哥经济俱乐部（Economic Club of Chicago）表示，美联储的独立性"在华盛顿和国 会得到了广泛的理解和支持，这一点在国会非常重要"。 他在那次活动中补充说："我们绝不会受到任何政治压力的影响。人们想说什么就说什么。这很好。这 不是问题。但我们将严格按照自己的意愿行事，不考虑政治或任何其他外在因素。" 据听取了美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔（Jerome ...