Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - A-share major indices closed higher, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The CSI 1000 was the strongest among the four broad-based indices. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined significantly. Over 4,500 stocks rose across the market. Industry sectors generally rose, with the communication and electronics sectors strengthening significantly, and the petroleum and petrochemical sector weakening significantly. Overseas, US President Trump said that the US war against Iran may end soon, causing US oil prices to plunge. The fall in oil prices provided a buffer for the market, but the risk of a subsequent oil price increase remains. Domestically, in February, China's CPI rose significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, and the decline in PPI narrowed. The PPI-CPI gap widened, suggesting a possible decline in CPI growth. In the first two months of 2026, China's import and export trade improved significantly, and external demand may support GDP. The government's work report lowered the economic growth target for 2026 compared to 2025, but the industrial policy indicates a shift towards high-quality development. The fiscal policy is more proactive than in 2025. Overall, as the impact of overseas geopolitical conflicts on reflation expectations is gradually digested, the Two Sessions have become the focus of the market. The support for the high-tech manufacturing industry in the government's work report has led to a significant increase in related sectors, and the positive fiscal policy has strengthened the market's expectation of policy support for the economy. As external conflicts fade, the market refocuses on the domestic market, and the stable and improving fundamentals provide support for the market. [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The prices of all major and secondary futures contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased. The spreads between different contracts also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 holders of IF and IM decreased, while those of IH and IC increased. [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased. The basis of the main contracts of IF and IH increased, while that of IC and IM decreased. [2] Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Margin Trading**: The A-share trading volume decreased, while the margin trading balance increased. [2] - **Northbound Trading and Repurchase**: The northbound trading volume increased, and the repurchase operation volume increased. [2] - **Main Funds and MLF**: The net outflow of main funds decreased, and no information on MLF was provided. [2] - **Stock Price Increase Ratio and Shibor**: The ratio of rising stocks increased, and the Shibor rate decreased. [2] - **Option Prices and Volatility**: The closing price of the IO at-the-money call option increased, and its implied volatility decreased. The closing price of the IO at-the-money put option decreased, and its implied volatility also decreased. The 20-day volatility of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decreased, the trading volume PCR decreased, and the position PCR increased. [2] Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The overall A-share market showed strength in terms of technology and capital. [2] Industry News - US President Trump said that the US war against Iran may end soon, and he is considering taking over the Strait of Hormuz. [2] - In February 2026, China's CPI rose 1.3% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month, and the PPI fell 0.9% year-on-year and rose 0.4% month-on-month. [2] - In the first two months of 2026, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, and imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%. [2] Key Events to Watch - March 4 - 11: The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference [3] - March 5 - 12: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress [3] - TBD: China's February financial data [3] - March 11, 20:30: US February CPI and core CPI [3] - March 12, 20:30: US January trade data [3] - March 13, 20:30: US February PCE and core PCE [3]

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices declined collectively this week, with the STAR 50 being the weakest, dropping over 4%. The four stock - index futures also fell, and small - and mid - cap stocks were weaker than large - cap blue - chip stocks [8][97]. - There were numerous domestic and overseas market news this week. The Middle East conflict continued to escalate, pushing up oil prices, reducing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI declined in February, while the non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly. The government work report set a lower economic growth target for 2026 but showed a shift towards high - quality development and more active fiscal policies [97]. - As the impact of overseas geopolitical conflicts on re - inflation expectations is gradually digested by the market, the Two Sessions have become the current market focus. The support for high - tech manufacturing in the government work report boosted related sectors, and the positive fiscal policy strengthened the market's expectation of policy - supported economic growth [97]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review | Futures/Spot | Contract/Index Name | Weekly Change (%) | Friday Change (%) | Closing Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | IF2603 | - 1.44 | 0.60 | 4646.0 | | | IH2603 | - 1.82 | 0.29 | 2990.0 | | | IC2603 | - 3.73 | 1.17 | 8322.6 | | | IM2603 | - 3.75 | 1.40 | 8211.8 | | Spot | CSI 300 | - 1.07 | 0.27 | 4660.44 | | | SSE 50 | - 1.54 | 0.14 | 2992.70 | | | CSI 500 | - 3.44 | 0.62 | 8360.33 | | | CSI 1000 | - 3.64 | 0.95 | 8248.86 | [11] 3.2 News Overview - On February 28th (local time), the US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran. US President Trump said the attack aimed to destroy Iran's missile industry and navy, and prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that the goal was to overthrow the Iranian regime [14]. - On March 4th, China's National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the official manufacturing PMI in February was 49 (expected 49.7, previous 49.3), the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. - The government work report set the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, the urban surveyed unemployment rate at around 5.5%, and the goal of creating over 12 million new urban jobs. It also proposed to continue implementing more active fiscal policies (deficit rate around 4%, deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year; general public budget expenditure of 30 trillion yuan for the first time, an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan from the previous year; issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds) and moderately loose monetary policies [15]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.93%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.22%, the STAR 50 fell 4.95%, the SME 100 fell 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.45% [19]. - **Overseas Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 fell 0.70%, the UK FTSE 100 fell 4.55%, the Nikkei 225 fell 5.49%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 3.28% [20]. - **Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors declined, with the petroleum and petrochemical sector rising significantly and the media sector falling notably. - **Sector Main - Force Fund Flow**: Industry main - force funds generally showed net outflows, with significant net outflows in the electronics, non - ferrous metals, and computer sectors, and only a slight net inflow in the comprehensive sector [28]. - **SHIBOR Short - Term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short - term interest rates declined, indicating a generally loose capital market [32]. - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 12.586 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted shares lifted was 43.713 billion yuan, and the total trading volume of northbound funds was 14.38786 trillion yuan. The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all fluctuated [35]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The external environment still restricts A - shares due to the escalating Middle East conflict, rising oil prices, and reduced Fed interest - rate cut expectations. - Domestically, the manufacturing showed a weak supply - demand situation in February, but the non - manufacturing was supported by strong consumer spending. The government work report indicated a shift towards high - quality economic development and more active fiscal policies. - As the market digests the impact of overseas conflicts and focuses on the domestic situation, the stable and improving fundamentals will support the market [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed up collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 4100 mark. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.23%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.66%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded slightly, and over 4000 stocks in the whole market rose. Overseas, the US ADP employment in February exceeded expectations, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI price index hit a one - year low. The US 10 - year Treasury futures yield once exceeded 4.1%. Domestically, in February, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the manufacturing PMI declined, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. However, strong consumer spending supported a slight increase in the non - manufacturing PMI. The government work report lowered the economic growth target for 2026 compared to 2025, indicating a shift towards high - quality development. The fiscal policy arrangement is more proactive. With the impact of overseas geopolitical conflicts on re - inflation expectations gradually digested, the Two Sessions have become the focus of the market. The support for high - tech manufacturing in the government work report has led to a significant rise in related sectors, and the proactive fiscal policy has strengthened the market's expectation of policy - supported economic growth [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: The latest price of the IF main contract (2603) is 4629.0, up 43.0; the IF sub - main contract (2606) is 4566.6, up 29.2. Similar price increases are seen in IC, IH, and IM contracts [2] - **Futures Spreads**: The IF - IH spread of the current month contract is 1642.0, up 23.2; the IC - IF spread of the current month contract is 3626.6, down 1.8. There are also changes in other spreads [2] - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of the IF main contract is - 18.7, down 7.1; the basis of the IH main contract is - 1.5, up 0.6. Similar changes are seen in IC and IM contracts [2] - **Futures Positions**: The net position of the top 20 in IF is 29,238.00, down 1479.0; the net position of the top 20 in IH is 20,505.00, down 1386.0. Similar decreases are seen in IC and IM [2] 3.2 Market Sentiment Data - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume is 24,125.91 billion yuan, up 246.49 billion yuan; margin trading balance is 26,426.88 billion yuan, down 86.23 billion yuan. Northbound trading volume is 3297.82 billion yuan, down 843.68 billion yuan [2] - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks is 74.35%, up 42.56 percentage points; Shibor is 1.267%, up 0.001 percentage points. There are also changes in option prices, implied volatilities, and other indicators [2] 3.3 Industry News - **Domestic Policy**: The government work report sets the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. It will continue to implement proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies and support the development of emerging and future industries [2] - **Overseas News**: The US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, the largest increase since November 2025, exceeding expectations [2]