阿里巴巴的战略重心正发生根本性转变，从过去"不惜代价的增长"演变为"高效增长"。 据追风交易台，摩根大通11月26日发布的研报表示，阿里巴巴的战略演变正进入第二阶段，增长模式正 从过去的用户规模驱动，转向盈利能力更强的效率驱动，盈利拐点或已出现。 该行分析师团队"预计阿里巴巴的综合盈利在2025年3季度（2025年9月结束季度）达到拐 点，并随着公司从用户规模驱动的增长模式转变为盈利能力更强的效率驱动模式而于2025年 4季度开始显著复苏"。 这一转变的核心驱动力来自两大业务的积极进展。报告指出，在人工智能需求的推动下，云业务增长前 景乐观，而外卖和闪购业务的亏损正在显著收窄。摩根大通预测，阿里的"外卖业务亏损有望在2025年4 季度环比收窄约40%至约210亿元"。同时，该行预计"云业务收入同比增速有望进一步提升至37%"。 基于多项业务有望实现增长加速和盈利改善，摩根大通认为，在盈利复苏周期到来之前，阿里巴巴股票 的风险回报状况具有吸引力。该行维持对阿里巴巴的"增持"评级，但将美股和港股目标价分别从240美 元和235港元，下调至230美元和225港元。 闪购业务亏损显著收窄，协同效应显现 本地生活服务， ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by SaaS startups in securing Series B funding after completing Series A, highlighting a significant decline in success rates for companies that completed Series A after 2021 compared to those from 2018-2020 [1][8][21] Group 1: Funding Success Rates - Companies that completed Series A between 2018-2020 had a 40-55% success rate in obtaining Series B funding by the fourth year, while those completing Series A after 2021 have a success rate of only 20-30% [1][8] - The success rate for companies in the first year after Series A is only in the single digits, with most needing 24-36 months to see progress [1][6] - The first quarter of 2024 showed a 10.4% success rate for companies, indicating a recovery in market confidence compared to 2023 [2][9] Group 2: Increased Funding Requirements - The threshold for Series B funding has significantly increased, with successful companies now needing an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $4-8 million, up from $2-4 million before 2021 [6][15] - The average time between Series A and Series B funding rounds is approximately 24 months, with only a small percentage (less than 10%) able to secure the next round within 6 months [11][19] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations for SaaS Startups - SaaS companies should prepare for a long-term battle rather than a sprint, ensuring that funding from Series A can support operations for at least 24-30 months [10][21] - Focus on achieving specific operational metrics rather than superficial vanity metrics to meet the new standards for Series B funding [12][20] - Emphasize efficiency in growth, including improving gross margins and customer acquisition cost efficiency, as the market shifts towards "efficient growth" [13][18] Group 4: Positive Signals in Current Environment - Despite the challenges, there are signs of recovery, with key metrics such as ARR and net revenue retention rates showing improvement [15][21] - Companies that completed Series A before 2021 could often secure Series B funding based on growth data alone, while those after 2021 face stricter scrutiny on capital efficiency [16][18] - The data indicates that patience and persistence can lead to success, as seen in the performance of companies from 2018-2019 [17]