证券研究报告 宏观报告（R3） 物价超预期回暖，经济结构分化加剧 10 月份经济数据解读 2025 年 11 月 14 日 中债综指-上证指数走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 2.60 8.34 16.03 中债综指 0.08 -0.20 -0.47 -8% 2% 12% 22% 2024-11 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 2025-11 中债综指 上证指数 | 分析师 | | --- | | 袁闯 | 执业证书编号:S0530520010002 yuanchuang@hnchasing.com 张雯婷 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530524030002 zhangwenting30@hnchasing.com 相关报告 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 政策效果逐步显现，经济结构性变化明显。一是物价数据超预期改善。 10 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.2%，环比上涨 0.2%。10 月 PPI 同比下降 2.1%， 环比由上月持平转为上涨0.1%，为年内首次正增。二是生产端保持较 高景气。10 月规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长4.9%，保持较高景 气度。三是新旧动能加快转化。1 ...

Market Performance - The three major indices closed higher this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points, reaching a high of 4025.70 points, but ultimately closing at 3954 points after two days of decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index recorded cumulative increases of 0.11%, 0.67%, and 0.50% respectively [1] - Small-cap stocks outperformed, with the North Securities 50 Index rising by 7.52% and the National Securities 2000 Index increasing by 1.18%, while large-cap stocks underperformed, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices falling by 0.43% and 1.12% respectively [1] Sector Performance - Eight primary sectors saw gains, with notable increases in electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, and steel, while sectors such as telecommunications, beauty care, and banking experienced significant declines [1] Investment Trends - The latest investment direction of the "National Big Fund" has emerged, with 30 A-share listed companies having the "National Big Fund" among their top ten circulating shareholders, including companies like Northern Huachuang, Hushi Silicon Industry, and others [1] - A series of favorable news has been released, including the official publication of the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes original innovation and key core technology breakthroughs in various sectors [2] - The Ministry of Science and Technology indicated a focus on increasing high-quality technological supply and promoting major national science and technology projects during the "14th Five-Year" period [3] Foreign Investment - Recent data shows a significant increase in international capital confidence in the Chinese market, with new foreign shareholders appearing in A-share companies, indicating a trend of foreign capital returning to China [4] - Analysts suggest that foreign capital inflow is a natural outcome of valuation recovery, industrial upgrades, and global asset rebalancing, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing considerable long-term growth potential [4] Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a fluctuating upward trend in November, supported by policy drivers and improvements in the external environment [4] - Analysts recommend focusing on four key investment themes: TMT and technological self-reliance, high-end manufacturing and green transformation, energy resource security, and financial support for the real economy [5]