镍：供给高度集中的底部高赔率品种 20251228 镍需求主要由不锈钢和三元电池驱动，不锈钢占比 70%，三元电池占比 13%。不锈钢需求与宏观经济高度相关，在全球制造业 PMI 上行时，不 锈钢增速同比可高达 10%。 镍具有权益弹性大于商品弹性的特点，在印尼托底政策、冶炼审批限制 及乐观宏观预期下，未来一年内行情值得期待，建议关注整个权益板块 布局机会，如华友钴业，镍价每上涨 1,000 美元，公司利润弹性可达 12 亿以上。 2025 年 12 月，印尼已审批的总量配额达到 3.79 亿吨，而实际需求量仅为 2.8-2.9 亿吨。因此，从 2025 年 10 月起，过去所审批的配额作废，并要求企 业重新申请新一年的配额，将 RKB 有效期恢复为一年一审。这一变化使得未来 每年的 RKB 审批量级更灵活调节。如果 2026 年的总配额严格控制在 2.5 亿吨， 将显著影响供给，并可能导致行业反转。 印尼政府对镍矿供应政策变化对市场价格有何影响？ 随着印尼政府对 RKB 政策调整及其他相关措施实施，自 2023 年底至 2024 年 期间（即今年），由于政策收紧和大选因素导致审批偏紧，使得火法矿价格从 30 ...

Core Insights - The essence of investment lies in understanding the truth, quality, and value of assets, where the ability to discern truth is crucial for survival in the industry [1][2] - Investment success is influenced by the level of cognitive understanding, with higher levels leading to better decision-making and outcomes [2][3] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Investment is fundamentally about exploring the truth behind societal changes and understanding value through probability and odds [2] - The recognition of investment principles can be categorized into different levels, from fragmented (point) to comprehensive (array) understanding, with the latter being essential for effective decision-making [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese stock market presents unique challenges, and while past experiences may not directly translate to future success, strategic opportunities will continue to arise [3][4] - The best selling opportunities often occur when market sentiment is overly optimistic, while the best buying opportunities arise during periods of pessimism [8][9] Group 3: Risk Management - Effective risk management is crucial, as it prevents significant fluctuations in net value, and should be prioritized over merely smoothing out volatility [6][7] - High probability investments should be based on strong demand and supply barriers, with opportunities arising from concentrated negative sentiment [7][8] Group 4: Long-term Perspective - Successful investing requires a long-term perspective, patience, and the ability to endure market fluctuations while maintaining a disciplined approach [10][11] - Understanding that uncertainty is absolute and learning to make high-certainty decisions amidst it is key to investment success [11][12]