行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 08 月 24 日 鲍威尔发言偏鸽，重视顺周期投资 机会 看好 —— 金属&新材料行业周报20250818-20250822 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 3.49%，深证成指上涨 4.57%，沪深 300 上涨 4.18%，有色金属（申万）指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The circulating PPT regarding the A-share market valuation, titled "Bull Market 10,000 Points," has attracted market attention, but it is an internal sharing document from Tongtai Fund, not a definitive market indicator [1][2]. Group 1: Market Valuation and Models - The PPT includes references to the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) and its branches for estimating future valuation ranges, which are common quantitative tools used by professional institutions [2][3]. - The DDM is suitable for mature companies with stable and predictable dividends, but the reliance on a single model for market predictions is deemed unobjective by professionals [3][4]. - Various valuation models, including DCF, PE, and PB, are commonly used in conjunction to validate findings, emphasizing the importance of cross-verification in financial analysis [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - Despite a strong performance in the A-share market recently, there is confusion regarding asset allocation directions, with no clear mainline trend identified in the second-quarter reports from many fund managers [4][5]. - The rapid rotation of market sectors, such as the recent decline in previously popular sectors like water and infrastructure, contrasts with the resurgence of AI and robotics concepts [4]. - Future investment strategies should focus on dividend assets and index-based allocations, with a cautious approach to market participation [4][5].

吃喝板块今日（7月25日）深陷回调。反映吃喝板块整体走势的食品ETF（515710）早盘低开后震荡下 行，截至收盘，场内价格跌1.28%。 成份股方面，白酒龙头跌幅居前。截至收盘，贵州茅台、泸州老窖、山西汾酒等跌超2%，五粮液、舍 得酒业、金种子酒等跌超1%。 尽管今日出现回调，但拉长时间区间来看，食品饮料板块股价近期呈现震荡回升态势。中金公司指出， 在国家持续出台相关政策拉动内需、提振消费、鼓励生育的背景下，食饮板块需求有望边际企稳改善。 分板块看大众食品基本面自3月起边际改善，下半年基本面有望稳中改善，看好休闲零食、软饮料等子 板块下半年表现。白酒受宏观经济及政策影响出现板块性估值回调，基本面处于筑底阶段，虽下半年白 酒基本面或仍有所承压，但估值已基本反映悲观预期，配置价值渐显。 消息面上，7月22日，2025年《财富》中国500强排行榜公布，该榜单采用与《财富》世界500强一脉相 承的制榜方法，同时包括了上市和非上市企业。依据这个榜单及其数据，人们可以了解中国最大企业的 最新发展趋势。 净利润率方面，排位最高的前十家公司中，有三家来自饮料行业中的酒企，分别是贵州茅台、泸州老窖 和山西汾酒，其中贵州茅台以 ...

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is performing well, with leading liquor stocks showing significant gains, such as Luzhou Laojiao rising over 3% and Yanghe Co. increasing over 2% [1] - The Food ETF (515710) reached a maximum intraday price increase of 1.16%, closing up 0.83% [1][3] - A report from Brand Finance revealed that six Chinese liquor brands made it to the top ten of the world's most valuable liquor brands, with Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Fenjiu ranking among the top four [1] Group 2 - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is favorable, with the food ETF's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.01, which is at a low point compared to the past decade [3] - The food and beverage sector is expected to see improved demand as national economic stimulus policies take effect, leading to a potential recovery in the sector's overall performance [4] - By 2025, revenue growth for food and beverage listed companies is anticipated to remain in single digits, slightly above the industry average, with a friendly cost environment supporting profit margins [4][5] Group 3 - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the CSI segmented food and beverage industry theme index, with approximately 60% of its holdings in high-end and mid-range liquor stocks [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include leading brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yili [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates a positive performance in the liquor sector during the May Day banquet scene, with companies generally seeking stability in 2025, suggesting potential valuation recovery opportunities from upcoming consumer stimulus policies [1][4] - The beer and beverage sectors saw better-than-expected travel data during the May Day holiday, with notable growth in Q1 for companies like Uni-President, driving market performance [1][5] - The health supplement sector showed significant gains, with a focus on three major investment opportunities in a potential cyclical recovery [1][6] Group 2: Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector and the CSI 300 index experienced increases of +1.76% and +1.92% respectively during the week of May 2 to May 9, with health supplements (+5.09%) and baked goods (+4.25%) leading the gains [3] - The liquor sector outperformed the overall food and beverage market and the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of +2.34%, attributed to the easing of performance pressure following Q1 earnings reports [4] Group 3: Sector Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the liquor sector include leading companies with strong alpha and beta benefits, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Luzhou Laojiao [1][4] - In the consumer goods sector, the report highlights opportunities in snack foods, dairy products, and companies with overseas expansion potential, such as Yili and Anqi Yeast [2][6]

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US PMI readings have shown a high level of economic activity since the beginning of the year, but the expansion trend may face obstacles in the first half of the year, potentially fluctuating around the lower end of the growth line [1] - The manufacturing PMI has not shown a trend recovery following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, indicating a lack of significant demand rebound [1][2] - Export leading indicators such as South Korea's exports and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index have shown signs of decline, suggesting potential challenges for the US economy [1][2] Group 2: Trade Policies and Tariffs - The recent tariff threats from Trump against Mexico, Canada, and China may have a manageable impact on China's exports and GDP, with estimated reductions of 3.3 percentage points and 0.36 percentage points respectively [3] - The market's tolerance for external disturbances is expected to increase as risk appetite improves, and Trump's focus remains on domestic policies rather than US-China tensions [3] - The new tariffs on Chinese imports are projected to reduce China's export growth by approximately 3 percentage points for the year 2025, particularly affecting textiles, toys, and footwear [6] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The white liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of a recovery driven by policy signals and improving demand, suggesting a potential upward cycle for leading brands [7] - The home furnishing sector is seeing improvements in demand, particularly in regions with flexible policies, but the recovery of the renovation market is still pending further policy support [9] - The wind power industry is expected to experience significant growth due to technological advancements and increased domestic demand, particularly in the blade manufacturing segment [18] Group 4: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The current macroeconomic environment is conducive to a more sustained theme-driven market, with a focus on fundamental expectations rather than speculative trends [13] - The upcoming traditional peak season for the chemical industry is anticipated to provide investment opportunities, particularly in sectors with favorable supply-demand dynamics [19] - The textile and apparel sector is expected to see a recovery in 2025, driven by improved consumer sentiment and policy clarity, with several investment themes identified [24]