一样的行情，不一样的指导，不一样的人生。新手的特点就是不懂技术，盲目进场。他们每次交易只考虑一个问题：认为只要预判了市场涨跌就可以去做这 笔交易。这种重方向、轻位置的做法使得交易者一败涂地。其实，顺势而为的"势"跟"方向"是有很大差别的，因为市场的运动方向呈现震荡的形态运行，而 市场的趋势往往是全局性的。在我这里，我能做的是帮你合理的把控仓位，利用支撑和阻力位下单，让每一单有理可依，有迹可循。买卖点位不应该是随意 进场，请对自己的资金负责。如果你对行情真的无法把握，可以前来找到我，多一个分析师对你来说没有任何损失，永远记住一句话，专业的人做专业的 事，一切实战只为盈利，合作只为双赢。 原油技术面分析：原油从日线图级别看，K线连续七个交易日收阴线，油价跌破原震荡区间下沿，中期主观趋势向下。均线系统尚未形成空头排列，中期客 观趋势处于转换期。从动能看，MACD指标在逐步下穿零轴位置，空头动能逐步转强。预计原油中期走势将转入下行。原油短线(1H)走势震荡自区间底部震 荡上行，亚洲早盘运行至区间上沿63附近价格。均线系统呈多头排列，短线客观趋势向上，但为区间内上涨，大格局区间范围尚未被突破。MACD指标在零 轴上方， ...

Group 1 - The core strategy for margin trading focuses on "following the trend," emphasizing the importance of selecting high-certainty industry leaders for long-term leverage and event-driven stocks for short-term gains [1] - In the context of margin trading, investors should be aware of the limited number of short-selling targets and the potential for changes in available shares, necessitating prior confirmation with brokers [1] Group 2 - Leveraged ETFs are best utilized for "swing trading," with a recommended holding period of 5 to 10 trading days due to their daily reset feature, which can lead to volatility decay [2] - Investors should use technical indicators to determine entry points for leveraged ETFs, such as buying when the index breaks above the Bollinger Bands upper limit with increased volume [2] Group 3 - Options strategies emphasize "refined management," with a focus on buying in-the-money call options for bullish markets and constructing call spreads to manage risk in uncertain conditions [4] - In volatile markets, selling straddles can be a common strategy, allowing investors to earn premiums as long as the underlying stock price remains within a specified range [4] Group 4 - Combining different leverage tools can optimize the risk-return profile, with conservative investors using a "margin + bonds" strategy and aggressive investors employing a "leveraged ETF + options" combination for added protection [5] - The effectiveness of leverage tools relies on understanding their characteristics and adapting strategies to market conditions, highlighting the need for investor discipline and market sensitivity [5][6]

Core Insights - The essence of investment lies in understanding the truth, quality, and value of assets, where the ability to discern truth is crucial for survival in the industry [1][2] - Investment success is influenced by the level of cognitive understanding, with higher levels leading to better decision-making and outcomes [2][3] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Investment is fundamentally about exploring the truth behind societal changes and understanding value through probability and odds [2] - The recognition of investment principles can be categorized into different levels, from fragmented (point) to comprehensive (array) understanding, with the latter being essential for effective decision-making [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese stock market presents unique challenges, and while past experiences may not directly translate to future success, strategic opportunities will continue to arise [3][4] - The best selling opportunities often occur when market sentiment is overly optimistic, while the best buying opportunities arise during periods of pessimism [8][9] Group 3: Risk Management - Effective risk management is crucial, as it prevents significant fluctuations in net value, and should be prioritized over merely smoothing out volatility [6][7] - High probability investments should be based on strong demand and supply barriers, with opportunities arising from concentrated negative sentiment [7][8] Group 4: Long-term Perspective - Successful investing requires a long-term perspective, patience, and the ability to endure market fluctuations while maintaining a disciplined approach [10][11] - Understanding that uncertainty is absolute and learning to make high-certainty decisions amidst it is key to investment success [11][12]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently experiencing a narrow upward fluctuation, trading around $3385.95 per ounce, following a 0.56% increase on June 4, closing at $3372.18 per ounce [2] - The decline in the US dollar index by 0.5% to 98.80 and the drop in the 10-year US Treasury yield from 4.629% to 4.365% have made gold more attractive to investors, supporting the price increase [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a high-level consolidation phase, with key support levels at $3355-58 and resistance at $3410-3420, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [5][3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are under pressure, currently trading at $62.75 per barrel, influenced by rising gasoline and distillate inventories in the US, indicating weak demand [6] - The market is facing dual pressures from OPEC+ production increases and rising US inventories, leading to concerns about the recovery of global consumption [6] - Technical analysis suggests a downward trend for oil prices, with expectations of testing lower levels around $50 after a period of consolidation [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around Li Ka-shing's swift response to changing geopolitical dynamics, particularly in relation to U.S.-China trade relations and his business strategies [3][4][5] - Li Ka-shing's company, Cheung Kong Holdings, issued a statement asserting the legality of its port transactions, indicating a shift in strategy following U.S. tariff adjustments [3][4] - The article highlights the contrast between Li Ka-shing's previous low-profile approach and his recent proactive stance, suggesting that he is adapting to the evolving market conditions [4][5] Group 2 - The narrative compares Li Ka-shing's business maneuvers to a student who only straightens up when authority figures are present, illustrating the reactive nature of his strategies in response to external pressures [5][6] - The article critiques Li Ka-shing's past investments, such as in the UK during Brexit, suggesting that his opportunistic approach may not always align with public sentiment or long-term viability [5][6] - The commentary emphasizes that the current global trade environment is shifting, and companies like Li Ka-shing's must navigate these changes carefully to avoid significant setbacks [6]

Core Points - Lei Jun, the founder of Xiaomi, is currently facing significant challenges following a serious traffic accident involving the Xiaomi SU7, which resulted in the deaths of three individuals [1][6] - The incident has led to heightened scrutiny of Xiaomi's automotive division and raised concerns about product safety and corporate responsibility [6][11] - Despite the challenges, Xiaomi's core smartphone business remains strong, and the company has achieved impressive sales figures in the automotive sector [6][10] Group 1: Recent Events - Lei Jun's recent comments indicate that the past month has been one of the most difficult periods since founding Xiaomi, highlighting the impact of the SU7 accident [2][5] - The accident has drawn significant media attention and has the potential to delay the advancement of intelligent driving technology in China [6][10] - Following the accident, Xiaomi's planned 15th-anniversary celebrations were canceled, and Lei Jun was absent from the Shanghai Auto Show [1][6] Group 2: Company Performance - Prior to the accident, Xiaomi's automotive sales were strong, with the company achieving a delivery volume of 200,000 vehicles within a year of launching its automotive division [8][10] - Xiaomi's stock performance had been positive, and Lei Jun was regarded as a leading figure in the industry, with a large following on social media [1][6] - The company is expected to achieve record performance in 2024, with projections indicating a return to the top position in the Chinese smartphone market by Q1 2025 [6][10] Group 3: Historical Context - Lei Jun's career has been marked by ups and downs, including early failures in entrepreneurship and challenges faced during his tenure at Kingsoft [3][4][8] - The establishment of Xiaomi in 2010 was a pivotal moment, as the company quickly gained market attention with its innovative smartphone offerings [3][8] - Lei Jun's philosophy of "going with the flow" has been a guiding principle in his business strategy, allowing Xiaomi to capitalize on market trends [8][10] Group 4: Future Considerations - The recent crisis has prompted Lei Jun to emphasize the need for Xiaomi to adopt higher standards and responsibilities as a leading company in the automotive industry [2][7] - There is a recognition that the automotive sector requires a different approach compared to consumer electronics, necessitating increased investment in research and development [11] - Moving forward, Xiaomi must balance the founder's influence with the need for organizational evolution to ensure the long-term success of its automotive division [11][12]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of timing, drawdown control, and flexibility as core competencies in navigating risks within the bond market [1][5][6] - The investment philosophy of the company is centered around the principle that "investment is the only standard to test research" [5][10] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The company believes that practical experience in trading is essential for validating research and investment strategies [2][5] - The investment approach is built on three key concepts: timing, drawdown control, and flexibility, which are interdependent and form a comprehensive methodology [6][7] Group 2: Market Strategy - The company recognizes the challenges of predicting market movements in the short term but maintains that a clear understanding of uncertainty allows for resilient strategies [2][9] - The current bond market is viewed as having upward potential, with the company identifying key signals such as inflation and housing prices as indicators for market direction [8][9] Group 3: Team Collaboration - The company employs a differentiated management strategy among its fund managers, allowing for independent decision-making while maintaining a unified strategic framework [7] - The use of futures for hedging is highlighted, with a distinction made between short-term risk management and mid-term hedging strategies [7][9] Group 4: Market Outlook - The company anticipates that the bond market will face upward pressure due to ongoing trade tensions and economic conditions, which provide a fundamental support for bond prices [9][10] - The company advises that ordinary investors should engage with the bond market through bond funds rather than direct participation in high-risk derivatives [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "going with the flow" in entrepreneurship, highlighting that success is often determined by the prevailing trends and technological advancements, particularly the rise of AI as the current major trend [1][6]. Group 1: Xiaomi's Success - Xiaomi has become the youngest company in the Fortune Global 500, with its smartphone sales ranking among the top three in China for six consecutive months and its electric vehicles also ranking among the top three in the new energy vehicle sector [1]. - The success of Xiaomi smartphones is attributed to the momentum of the mobile internet era, while the success of Xiaomi's electric vehicles aligns with the trend of the new energy vehicle era [1]. Group 2: AI's Impact Across Industries - AI is poised to reshape various industries, including healthcare, education, consumption, and media, with its impact expected to surpass that of the previous mobile internet era [2]. - The article invites entrepreneurs and business leaders to share their experiences and insights on AI implementation in their respective fields through a series of live sessions [2][3][4]. Group 3: Upcoming Live Sessions - A series of live sessions are scheduled, featuring experts discussing AI's influence on different sectors, including data analysis, education, media, and corporate applications [2][4][5]. - Notable speakers include leaders from various industries who will share their strategies and experiences in leveraging AI for business growth [4][5]. Group 4: Historical Context of Technological Revolutions - The article draws parallels between historical technological advancements and the current AI revolution, suggesting that significant shifts in human civilization are often driven by technological innovations that reshape production and resource allocation [5][6]. - The narrative emphasizes that those who effectively harness AI will emerge as leaders in this new era, creating opportunities for extraordinary achievements [6].

2023年12月22日，任泽平博士年终秀"点燃希望·乐观者前行——2024中国经济十大预测"圆满收 官。 2）适者生存，大自然的法则就是乐观主义者淘汰悲观主义者。 泽平宏观 乐观者前行，因为我们对这片土地爱的深沉。没有人可以靠做空自己的祖国致富，越是在关键时 刻，越要和她站在一起。顶部靠理智，底部靠信仰。 3）谁先入局、打破视野盲区，就有望占得先机。 一、 选自2023年12月22日 1）悲观者正确，乐观者前行，世界终将属于长期乐观主义者。 泽平宏观 泽平宏观 所有新技术革命的机遇，都有四个阶段：看不见、看不起、看不懂、来不及。厚积才 能薄发。 4）顺势而为是最大的智慧。 泽平宏观 抓住顺势而为的机遇，避免逆势而动的风险，顺势而为是最大的智慧，没有人可以对 抗趋势的力量，选择优于努力。 企业家对趋势的判断至关重要，甚至关系到企业的生 死。 二、 选自2022年12月20日 5） 股市总是在绝望中重生，在争议中上涨。 泽平宏观 在哲学层面，做股票投资本质是反人性的，巴菲特说， "在别人恐慌时贪婪，在别 人贪婪时恐慌"。股市总是"在绝望中重生，在争议中上涨，在狂欢中崩盘"。所以，我 们要"在炮火中挺进，在烟花中撤 ...