Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the current state of industrial production, construction activity, and price trends in China, indicating a seasonal slowdown in industrial production, weak infrastructure construction, and a rebound in port cargo volumes, alongside fluctuating agricultural and industrial prices [2][48]. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production is showing signs of seasonal weakness, with a slight decrease in blast furnace operating rates, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 1.0% [2][48]. - Midstream production is mixed, with soda ash and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -3.0% and 3.8%, respectively, while PTA operating rates decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.0% [2][48]. - The construction industry is experiencing overall weak activity, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates down 3.6 percentage points to -4.6% and 0.2 percentage points to -4.2%, respectively [2][48]. Group 2: Demand Trends - Port cargo volumes have rebounded, with cargo throughput and container throughput increasing by 5.7 percentage points to 3.6% and 4.1 percentage points to 5.3% year-on-year, respectively [2][48]. - The average daily transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities has significantly declined, down 13.9 percentage points to -5.1%, with first-tier cities experiencing a larger drop of 38.3 percentage points to -14.2% [2][48]. Group 3: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally decreased, with significant drops in egg, fruit, and pork prices, down 1.5%, 1.3%, and 0.4% respectively [3][49]. - Conversely, industrial product prices have shown an increase, with the South China industrial price index rising by 3.1% week-on-week, and the energy and chemical price index increasing by 5.6% [3][49].

作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇、浦聚颖 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产小幅走弱，建筑业开工边际改善，货运量有所回升。 【工业生产】工业生产小幅走弱。 本周，高炉开工小幅回落，同比-0.2pct至4.7%。化工链中PTA和涤纶 长丝开工均有下行，同比分别-0.2、-1.2pct至5%、3.6%。汽车半钢胎开工连续两周回落，同比-2.8pct 至-2.1%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工边际改善。 本周，全国粉磨开工率、水泥出货率边际改善，同比分别+1.1pct 至0.8%、+0.8pct至-2%。沥青开工率同比也有上行，较前周+2.3pct至-1.2%。 【下游需求】全国新房成交降幅较大，货物运输强度有所回升。 本周，全国新房成交同比-24.2pct 至-22%；其中一线、二线、三线城市成交均有走弱。物流表现有所好转，公路货车通行量同比+3.2pct至 2.6%；与出口相关的港口货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量同比分别+8.7pct至5.1%、+9.2pct至10.3%。人流强 度也有回升，迁徙指数同比+6pct至-5.2%。 【物价】农产品、工业品价格均有分化。 本 ...